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Maybe I'll have to change my AFC prediction in the previous post. With Kansas City pulling off that great comeback @ Denver, it gives me 11/15 this week. A big improvement and by far my best week. We all tipped KC so Warrior you still have the lead. So far this season I am ranked inside the top 34% of all tippers on the website. Since you are both ahead of me you're doing well too.
I have my eye on a few teams that have misleading records. Before you know it Warrior, I will be leading this comp (wishful thinking :()
« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 2nd 2018 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Washington!?? Matt, I support the team and I don?t think they will win the NFC East. I hate to say it but I think the title goes to Dallas mainly on the strength of their running game. I think Elliot will win the rushing title easily this year putting up big numbers, somewhere around the 1,800?s.
11 out of 15 is great going Matt, if you can do that every week bragging rights will be yours at the end of the season.
Since I started following the NFL back in 1982 a team comes along once in a while which from the beginning of the season you feel are destined to win the Super Bowl as they were so much better than everyone else for that one season. The 85 Bears and 86 Giants come straight to mind. Basically who is good enough to beat the Rams this year? If I had to choose a team I would want to see them in the final with it would be the Kansas City Chiefs even though I don?t think they would win. Does anyone else feel this will be the final two teams left in the competition?
Looks like Le?Veon Bell is going nowhere, apparently he now wants to retire as a Steeler. If I was a Steeler fan I wouldn?t be very happy with him. You have to wonder what shape Pittsburgh would be in if they had their best player in the draw against Cleveland and the two close losses against Kansas and Tampa Bay. They could easily be 3-1 now. After next week when Matt Ryan and Julio Jones rip them apart they will be 0-4-1 and with little chance of making the playoffs. I think it?s safe to say Le?Veon Bell has ruined the season for the 2018 Steelers. I wouldn?t be surprised if Bell has played his last game as a Steeler regardless of what he says.
Washington is a bit of a leap, but whenever I do a way to early prediction and do the standard, expected predictions, I get it totally wrong. NY Giants are average as usual, Dallas have no passing game, and Philly have the annual SB Hangover. For me it will depend on whether Philly can find form. That Tennessee loss, where they allowed 3/3 TEN 4th down passes on the final drive, it so costly. Washington are the only team that has beaten Green Bay this season, and in the NFC East they are the best team currently.
I agree with LA Rams. The only thing that can stop them getting homefield advantage is injuries. They are in a cakewalk division where the only game that may lose is @ Seattle. They will go 5-1 or 6-0 in the division. Kansas City will do nothing this year though. They were very close to losing to Denver. Remember last season they were 5-0 and flying, and Alex Smith was the best QB and hadn't thrown an INT? Now they are 4-0 and flying, and Patrick Mahomes is the best QB and hasn't thrown an INT. KC often have these fast starts, before they return to their mediocre selves.
This is great news about Bell. As a Steeler hater, he will ruin the locker room culture and create chaos. Bell is actually quite an overrated player. It's just that he gets 25+ carries every game so he gets good stats. James Connor, who seems a classy player, will get benched for this childish thug of a man. Antonio Brown will start playing better when he returns in week 7 yes, but for the long term this is a horrible move by Pittsburgh Unfortunately though they are 1-2-1 so when they lose to Atlanta they'll be 1-3-1, not 0-4-1.
Speaking of 1-2-1 and ties, I was wondering why there had been 2 ties already and 2 near-ties. Then I remembered that overtime is 10 minutes now and not 15. Are you both a fan of having ties? It will help in deciding tiebreakers won't it?
« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 2nd 2018 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
I think the competition we are in counts ties as a win.
When I used to follow the NFL closely overtime was sudden death, first team to score wins the game. Is that still the rule or has it changed?
I don't think Kansas City is going to suddenly go off the rails like they did last year. If there was any sign of them being quitters it would have showed up in the Denver game. If anything that Bronco game has probably given them the confidence that when faced with adversity they can overcome it. I take Kansas City to at least get to the AFC Championship game.
Do you know why Kansas City suddenly collapsed last year, I can't for the life of me remember what caused it. In the early stages of the season they were looking unstoppable.
I'm not sure when it changed, but the overtime rules are that (hypothetical teams of Cleveland and Oakland used here: Cleveland gets possession. If they score a TD on that initial possession they win. If they score a FG on that initial possession, the ball is given to Oakland, who MUST score. If Oakland fail to score, they lose. But if Oakland score a TD, they win. If they score a FG, the ball is given to Cleveland, and it's then first team that scores anything wins. Alternatively, if Cleveland don't score on their first possession, the ball is given to Oakland. If Oakland score a TD or FG, they win. If they don't score, the ball is given back to Cleveland, and it's then first team that scores anything wins.
Kansas City can easily collapse again. It's in their DNA. Last season you had exactly the same view on KC as you do now, and they crawled their way to 9-7.
This absolute novel says all we need to know about KC. Only step on their bandwagon when they are 18-0, and 50-0 up in the SB. They fooled all 3 of us last season, before the true KC turned up.
« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 3rd 2018 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
I get the drift, you can't rely on Kansas City to be consistant regardless of the numbers they post during the beginning of the season. They can't blow up twice on consecutive seasons could they?
What triggered the collapse? If I remember correctly even when Alex Smith was putting up big numbers at the start of the season last year there was talk of the Chiefs getting rid of him and starting Mahomes. I'm wondering if that quarterback controversy caused a rift in the locker room as Kansas looked like world beaters early in last years season before suddenly looking average.
It was probably a combo of bad timing to play Pittsburgh (who had a big winning streak on KC), good form coming to an end, and the usual KC choke appearing. When you're so used to winning and things start turning against you, it's hard to find a Plan B. They got found out against Pittsburgh, and then were down on confidence when they played Oakland, hence surrendering a late lead in that game. Then 5 consecutive wins became 2 consecutive losses, and the running game got stuffed meaning Alex Smith had to pass more often, and was subsequently picked off. Pittsburgh turned into Oakland which turned into Dallas which turned into NY Giants which turned into Buffalo which turned into NY Jets.
It was strange hearing all that Alex Smith getting replaced talk. It may've got to his head as soon as he lost, knowing his starting spot was in jeopardy. This season I just worry that Mahomes won't be able to sustain the high level he's been playing at. 3 seasons ago Atlanta started 5-0 and finished 8-8. 2 seasons ago Minnesota started 5-0 and finished 8-8. Last season KC started 5-0 and finished 9-7. There seems to always be a 5-0 team that flops, and depending on whether they both make it, I see KC more likely than LA Rams to flop.
Just did my tips. I was tempted to pick Jacksonville over KC, but I went with the home team. My upset picks were Atlanta @ Pittsburgh and Minnesota @ Philly.
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
This week's set of games are insane. I like to keep my road team picks down to five or six each week; I made sure to do the same for this week as well, but it was oh so hard to do with some of these games. Seriously, most of the games only favorite one team over the other by a margin of three points. In laymen terms: all these games are gonna be close, most of which are pick 'ems (no one team truly favored over the other).
I did make one true upset pick imo. But no, it wasn't the Bills or Cleveland (but I did think about both for a minute or two).
I spent like ten minutes debating the Falcons/Steelers Game. XD
The one I'm struggling to pick a winner from is the Atlanta at Pittsburgh game. Both teams are desperate for the win. I'm leaning towards Atlanta, the Falcons have had no problems putting points on the board this season, it's stopping the opponent doing the same is the issue. This could be a high scoring game if Roethlisberger has a good day.
I see Leonard Fournete is out of the Jacksonville vs. Kansas game so that has made my mind up who I'm tipping in that one.
The Monday night game is an interesting one with Washington going to New Orleans. The Saints are not as good as last year but they've still managed to win their last four and they are at home. Washingtons defense has improved and their is no telling what team is going to turn up on the day. If they feel in the mood for a game Allen and Payne could make life difficult for Brees who hasn't faced a front four as good as the Redskins this year. I think I'll see how my weekends picks go before I decide on this one.
Unfortunately there are 2 big problems for Washington. First they'll still have horrible memories of that 31-13 choke @ NO last season, losing 31-34 in overtime. Secondly Mark Ingram is back, making NO's running game even more dangerous. Also we know how inconsistent Washington are, and since their form has been a 24-0 Arizona win, a 9-24 Indy loss, and a 31-17 Green bay win, they are due for a loss.
The ATL @ PIT game is Atlanta's to lose. Their offense is back to the legendary levels of 2016/17, but their defense has been shattered by injuries. Both teams have good offenses and woeful defenses, but I trust the many RBs and WRs of Atlanta more than an out of form Antonio Brown. I can see Pittsburgh potentially winning that game, but for me picking the Atlanta 'upset' was easy and logical.
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
The Atlanta/Pittsburgh has to be the game of the week, even though their records don't prove it. Whichever team loses is basically done for the year, unless, of course, said team can rip off nine wins out of the remaining eleven games. Both teams have the potential to do that very thing in terms of their offenses, but their defenses makes it extremely doubtful.
From the sound of things, it looks like the three of us have picked some different games this weeks. Should be interesting.
Looks like after a slow start the Patriots have got their act together. They beat the colts convincingly on Thursday Night Football 38-24. That's a lot points they've scored in the last two games, don't tell me they're going to make another Super Bowl appearance.
Still trying to figure out who to go for in the Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta game. I'll probably end up picking that matchup on the day I'm so undivided on it. Probably go with Atlanta though, that's the team I'm leaning towards.
That game wasn't as much of a blowout as it seemed. NE were destroying Indy 24-3 before Indy got to within a TD of tieing the scores. Too bad NE waltzed down the field to get a TD, and then picked off Luck, getting another TD soon after.
Sadly though as I predicted, NE are back in business and near certainties to earn a postseason bye.
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
There's a writer on the NFL site who uses some sort of model to predict the scores & chance each team has of winning those games. She had these scores & winning chances:
KC 28-24 over JAX (58%) ... LAR 28-19 over SEA (80%) PIT 28-26 over ATL (57%) ... PHI 26-24 over MIN (55%) NO 30-22 over WAS (68%) ... HOU 25-21 over DAL (55%) BAL 25-21 over CLE (62%) ... GB 24-21 over DET (52%) CAR 26-18 over NYG (73%) ... LAC 29-26 over OAK (70%) CIN 26-21 over MIA (59%) ... DEN 24-19 over NYJ (60%) TEN 23-17 over BUF (61%) ... ARI 21-19 over SF (51%)
The statistics say pick Pittsburgh over Atlanta Dennis. Mind you 8/15 winners have less than a 60% chance of winning. This week is going to be a nightmare. They also have Arizona upsetting San Francisco.
They don't read too well for Washington, with only a 32% chance of victory. I think what this prediction rightfully tells us is that for Washington to win, they need to keep the scores low.
« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 5th 2018 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
That's interesting Matt. The last time Washington played New Orleans it was a close game and we both know that the Redskins were badly banged up and missing key personel. This year they play the game away but they go into it with a new quarterback and two dangerous running backs the Saints will have to keep an eye on. Then on defense there's Payne, Allen, and Settle plugging up the run which Washington didn't have last year. This game could be an upset. I'm going to have to study this one a little bit more closely over the weekend and try and figure out where each teams weaknesses are.
I still fancy Atlanta, I like Matt Ryan and his high powered offense. We know Pittsburgh can be scored on without too many problems and they're missing their best player. I think this game is going to depend on which quarterback is in the best form on the day. I think Minnesota will trounce Philadelphia, I don't think it will even be close.
I'm glad you're tipping the Minnesota upset too. Like you say realistically is should be a huge Minnesota win. Philly are having a serious case of SB Hangover. They should've lost in week 1, and if they had they would've been 1-3 (that one was a come-from-behind win against the 1-4 Colts). If Kirk Cousins doesn't have a big game choke, he will destroy Philly. And if this is the week Minnesota are able to fix their defense, oh boy it could get ugly.
Washington definitely have a chance, but I worry that they'll put together a performance similar to the 9-21 loss to Indy, who are 0-4 against all other teams they've played this season. Last season Washington stuffed the NO running game and gave other teams the formula to beat NO, but they let Brees tear them to shreds with not a lot of time left. If they're going to pull off the upset, they must make it the priority to stop Brees.
I must say I'm getting the same strange feeling with this game as I did with Green Bay.
« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 5th 2018 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Yes Matt, stopping Brees is the key. This year though the Redskins go into the game with statistically a top 5 defense so Brees is not going to have the same kind of time as he did last year against a banged up front four that were basically second stringers. This game has upset written all over it but like you pointed out the Indianapolis performance makes you weary of tipping them, that and their record of 2-10 coming off a bye week. I?m still leaning towards New Orleans, Brees will want to impress being on national TV on Monday Night Football and even at 40 he still has the ability to do it.
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