NFL - Discussion Thread

I went 10 home teams and 9 road teams. First time I have been somewhat confident in weeks. Thankfully, I have until the weekend to think them over.

Just was announced that Cam Newton is likely done for the season. Have no idea who to pick in that game now.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 19th 2018 »

????? 10 home teams and 9 road teams? What?

I instantly changed my pick to Atlanta. 8 home teams and 8 road teams now. Atlanta are near certainties to win that game. I mean, I don't even know who the Panthers backup QB is. That's how bad they are.

EDIT - Taylor Heinickle. I have never heard of him.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 19th 2018 »

Matt77 said:

????? 10 home teams and 9 road teams? What?

I instantly changed my pick to Atlanta. 8 home teams and 8 road teams now. Atlanta are near certainties to win that game. I mean, I don't even know who the Panthers backup QB is. That's how bad they are.

EDIT - Taylor Heinickle. I have never heard of him.

Sorry, ten home and six road. My phone is small and my fingers are fat. XD XD XD

I changed as well: now 9 home teams and 7 road teams.

I'm guessing we made all the same picks outside of the Houston/Philly Game, huh? lol

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 19th 2018 »

Probably. Although, I'm sooooooo tempted to pick San Fransisco at home over Chicago. According to some super computer that beats 95% of all expert tips, SF will win. Keeping in mind, that Chicago are 3-3 away from home, including an embarrassing loss to Miami. Nick Mullens to George Kittle may just be the hottest combination in football at the moment.

I probably should tip Philly, but I can't avoid their disgraceful stats. Houston are better on offense and defense, and wipe the floor with them when it comes to turnover differential. And if we remember back to last season, after Nick Foles lead the team to a win against LA Rams, the defense fell apart and nearly lost against the woeful Giants (who didn't have Beckham or Barkley) the following week, and he finished with an awful game against the mediocre Raiders. Foles rises to the occasion when they're underdogs, but now they they're favourites this week, we'll see which Foles turns up.

I have 10 home teams and 6 away teams. I'm still not convinced with Chicago, they could get at San Francisco, their across country away record isn't too good and like Matt pointed out the 49rs are having some success through the air. I'm on Chicago at the moment but that could change.

Thanks for the heads up on Carolina losing Cam Newton, I've just changed that tip accordingly. Although how many times have I been burned by an unknown quarterback winning a game, it recently happened the other week with Washington. I guess it's because the opposing team don't have any game film to study. We've probably all gone for the same teams again this week.

There are definitely some different tips. I've gone with 8 home teams, Warrior 9, and you 10. Your home team total is the general recipe for success though. Generally picking home teams is the way to go.

I'm pretty sure the game you've gone differently in is Denver @ Oakland. I tipped Denver just based on the fact they have a defense, but amazingly, Derek Carr hasn't been intercepted since week 7. Ever since there were the rumours about the Carr-Gruden relationship being broken, it seems strong suddenly, and Carr is playing very well despite having possibly the worst WR group in the history of the NFL. This for me is a 50/50 matchup, so even though it's a pointless game, it may have an impact on the result of the competition.

I must say, your luck has been terrible this season Dennis. If as you say you didn't know half the starting QBs in the league when we began tipping, and yet you're sitting 2nd in the comp, you've done very, very well. You're 6 behind Warrior, but I'm sure there's at least 3 accidental tips you've done over the course of the season.

Just heard Washington are interested in possibly signing Joe Flacco if Smith is not going to make a full recovery, not what I wanted to hear just before Christmas. Flacco is basically another Smith. I hope this rumour is not true, I want to see a young quarterback just out of college like Baker Mayfield or Mahommes that has potential not another teams cast-off.

I've gone Denver Matt, they are at home and they have some good defensive talent up front which I think can get to Carr.

Denver against Oakland is a grudge matcd neither team will want to lose, I just think at this point Denver will want win more being at home.

Dennis, Dennis, Dennis...

You've done it again!

Denver are not at home! This is an Oakland home game!

Sadly I heard the Flacco rumours too. That would nearly be as bad as when Miami signed Cutler... This signing cannot happen, or Washington are doomed. Flacco is washed up, and imo, worse than Smith. It makes 100% sense to go with Colt McCoy as the starter next season, and when he eventually has a bad game, play the rookie QB that Washington hopefully draft in the 2nd round. From the 1.5 games we saw of McCoy, it looked like he could potentially do what Mullens did and excel due to knowing the playbook as well as anyone.

Washington's draft MUST BE:
1st round - Wide receiver
2nd round - Quarterback

Oakland are at home, oh no... Not sure who to go with now. I guess it still has to be Denver as the Raider players won't care what the Oakland fans think as they're moving to Las Vegas next year.

I'm with you on the Quarterback situation. If the price isn't too high maybe trade up to get a Quarterback high in the first round. All depends on what other teams do I suppose as there will be quite a few with worse records than Washington that need a quarterback. I think Miami will stick with Tannenhill, they've invested a lot of time and money into him and just seems a bit of a waste to pull the plug now when he is starting to play quite well.

Not sure about the Washington game. That unknown quarterback Washington has will look at these last two games as his last chance to make it in the NFL and will not want to throw away this chance. The guy is probably the fastest player on the field which makes him dangerous as the defense will be keying in on Peterson.

I don't think Washington will win but on the other hand it wouldn't surprise me if they did.

Yes Washington are desperate for a decent reciever that can cause defenses problems, they have nobody at the moment worth mentioning.

Did you go with Seattle after all, Matt? If so, then we picked three games differently (assuming you went with the Texans).

Most of my distant family members are going with Carolina. I don't think they know that Cam is out. The question is do I tell them? lol

No, and no ;) Any team that loses to San Francisco deserves to be shot. And it's their fault for not knowing all the info.

The best and most logical decision is to keep Tannehill around for 1 more season, and to also draft a QB in the 2nd round. They CANNOT trade up. They need to have a solid draft instead, and fix the many holes in this squad. I mean, Tannehill was sacked NINE times last week. There's no way all 9 were his fault. There's just not any star power in this team. There are a few players, but not enough. CB Xavien Howard, RB Kenyan Drake, WR Albert Wilson, and Minkah Fiztpatrick (can play any position on defense) are already good/will be good soon. In a defense-focused draft, Miami need to draft an edge-rusher in the 1st round.

But like I say Dennis, don't believe in Tannehill. He'll never have 'it' to be an above average QB. He;ll have some good games, some ok games, and some bad games. The next 2 games for Miami are Jacksonville, and @ Buffalo, who both have above average defenses.

Washington have a big chance to win. Not that they're a good team at all, but Tennessee are so hot and cold.
Wins:
20-17 over Houston
9-6 @ Jacksonville
26-23 (OT) over Philly
28-14 @ Dallas
34-10 over New England
26-22 over NY Jets
30-9 over Jacksonville
17-0 @ NY Giants
Losses:
20-27 @ Miami
12-13 @ Buffalo
0-21 against Baltimore
19-20 @ LA Chargers (London)
10-38 @ Indy
17-34 @ Houston
One thing is that they are (usually) hard to beat at home. They have a 5-1 home record, yet their loss was a 0-21 drubbing to Baltimore. Mariota is also as inconsistent as the team is, so Washington's key is to stop the in-form rusher Derick Henry (400 yards in last 2 games, 6TDs in last 2 games also).

We basically have no choice but to keep Tannehill. In his last seventeen games, he is 12-5. Plus, this draft is horrible and Bridgewater does not deserve a big contract (which he will likely get on the open market). The 2020 Draft is going to be loaded with QBs, so we might as well wait until then. The Redskins should do the same, but I am sure they will get a QB in either the second or third round this year in case Smith is done for good.

Yep. There's no harm for both Miami and Washington to get a QB later in the draft. If they bust, then so be it. But who knows, they may not. I just hope to God that neither of our teams pick up Flacco...

Then there's also the intrigue at San Francisco. There's about a 90% chance they will get rid of one of their 3 QBs. I doubt very much that they'll trade Garoppolo back to NE, so the logical thing would be to keep him, have Mullens as a top 3 backup, and trade Beathard for a 5th rounder (as harsh as it is, this is the unfairness of pick compensation). If they don't, they could instead dangle the Mullens carrot and see if any teams will get desperate and give a 2nd round pick (unrealistic pick, I know).

Personally I wouldn't like it if Miami got either of these 2. Mullens won't make it with another team; he'll just be a Foles/Keenum 2.0. And I doubt Beathard will ever get another chance to be a starter.

Washington fell apart in the last quarter. After kicking a FG to increase their lead to 16-12, Josh Johnson threw 2INTs and Tennessee (with Blaine Gabbert at QB) came back to steal another game they didn't really deserve to win. I've got to say, I'm really worried about Mariota's future in the NFL. That's at least 3 injuries this season that have forced him off. Combine that with his mediocre play, and the question has to be asked. Do Tennessee move on from Mariota soon?

I've changed my tip to Philly over Houston. Lamar Miller will not play, and that puts all the responsibility on Watson.

I?m not surprised Washington lost although to be fair it was a close game up until those two interceptions late in the game. The second of which on a Hail Mary with time running out otherwise the score was 18-16.

The Chargers losing to the Ravens was a shock, turns out Philip Rivers has a history of playing lousy on a Saturday game for some reason and last nights game was no exception.

I was on Philadelphia anyway, even more so now with Washington losing. They can get into the playoffs if they win out without relying on other results.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 22nd 2018 »

If Philly win out, they finish 9-7. But if Seattle win 1/2 games, and Minnesota win out, they will finish 9-7 and 9-6-1 respectively.

Washington should have won that game. They were leading 10-6 when Gabbert entered the game. With 1:51 left in the 3rd quarter, Washington lead Tennessee 13-9 and Tennessee were at WAS 37. Blaine Gabbert threw a ball that was bound to be intercepted, but the ball went through the defender's hands without him even touching it. It was instead a 14-yard completion, and resulted in a Tennessee FG. If this hadn't happened, in theory both teams would've been tied 16-16 when Washington had their last possession. Who knows what could've happened in overtime...

I can't believe how easily Baltimore won! That was an LA Chargers home game, yet Baltimore dominated every facet of the game. After LAC scored a TD early in the 2nd half to punish a Baltimore fumble, they lead 10-6 and looked like they had woken up. But from that point on, Baltimore outscored them 16-0. This performance justifies them being listed as the 4th best team according to those stats I did earlier. But geez, for LAC, they are certainties to get the #5 seed now, and they will have to travel to either Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh are in huge trouble now. @ New Orleans is basically a must-win now. Tennessee have reached 9-6, and if Indy do the same, one of those 2 teams will win and finish 10-6. So unless Baltimore screw up at home versus Cleveland, Pittsburgh need to win.

...and I just changed another tip. This isn't a good sign...

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 23rd 2018 »

Are you guys having trouble seeing our tipping competition on the footytips site? When I went to check on footytips, it just shows the main NFL Tips Competition in my profile.

It does show our comp, but it says 'Starts soon, get cracking'. I can click into it, but there's no ladder and no tip stats. The website does this sometimes. It's probably since they're not used to NFL being on a Saturday and it's predominantly an AFL tipping website.

It should fix itself soon.

Okay. I guess we'll be in for a surprise for who each of us picked. XD

EDIT: It's back online. lol

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 23rd 2018 »

Yep, just saw it ;

I'm not even sure I want Miami to win. I mean, a 7-1 home record would be great, but we're essentially eliminated from playoff contention if Indy beat NY Giants at home this week. Winning will only put us 3-6 spots back in the draft. I'm sure we will though, since the Jags kicker is out, and Cody Kessler passes for > 150 yards once every 6 games.