NFL - Discussion Thread

My bad luck continues, the Jets were up 23-6 at one point. Darnold was looking like a top rookie putting up decent numbers and the next thing I know the Packers are in front 38-35. The same Packers who have not won an away game all season somehow manage to pull a rabbit out of their **** and win the game in OT. A Green Bay team that have nothing to play for decide to go against the grain when I back them.

I love seeing Cleveland getting better and better, at this rate they will be Super Bowl contenders in a couple of years. It would be nice to see them participate in the big game as they have never been there.

Now have to hope Kansas beat Seattle and Chicago beat the 49rs, two games I was struggling to pick a winner. If Matt has gone for Seattle and the 49rs which wouldn?t surprise me I?m two games down with one week left.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 23rd 2018 »

We've all done very well so far. That was unlucky Dennis, I was tempted to pick NY Jets too. Apart from that pick, we've all gone the same for the daytime games. Although I've picked Seattle to beat KC. I just think Seattle are playing to get into playoffs, whereas KC have basically clinched homefield advantage now.

I'm glad I changed to Philly. Nick Foles destroyed the above average Houston defense.

And as I type this, KC tie the game with an effortless TD...

...and Seattle win 38-31! That gives me some breathing space at 2nd, and brings me to 13/15 so far this week I am 3-0 this week in tips that I changed.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 23rd 2018 »

Outstanding tipping this week Matt. You?ve now put pressure on me to pick at least three more correct than you next week otherwise I?m coming in last. Just two more correct than you doesn?t help me as you have that points differential thing advantage over me. I can?t see me doing that unless I literally get all the games correct which is not happening as I am now forced into looking for upsets.

I must admit I was tempted to go with the Seahawks seeing as they were at home and had a chance of reaching the playoffs. I decided Kansas City was the better option because although they had already reached the post season they got beat by the Chargers last week in a game that must have dented their confidence and would want to win this game and next weeks so they went into the playoffs with a bit of momentum. Now they have lost two close shootouts to two teams that have scored a lot of points on them, I don't think the Mahomes led Chiefs are making it to the Super Bowl, they can be beaten by a high scoring team and with Pittsburgh, New England, L.A. Chargers in their way I can't see them getting far.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 24th 2018 »

Don't worry Dennis. You're only 1 behind me + margin. So you need 2 more to beat me. And also, 2nd place will be decided once the Superbowl plays out. Since you and I think playoffs are meaningful games, they should be included in tipping. If Warrior finishes 1st next week though, he will keep his title regardless of how he goes in playoffs.

WannaBeLikeMike - 159 (182)
TheChosenOne - 153 (174)
Sanzano - 152 (236)

I'm glad I finally have had a really good tipping week. My current score of 13 has easily beat my previous high score of 11, and there's still another game to go. Basically the reason Warrior will win this competition was because when he had a good week, it was really good. This week I placed 77th overall on the tipping website, and overall this season I am now inside the top 10% of tippers. You're not far behind.

I originally tipped Kansas City for that very reason, but after LA Chargers lost on Saturday, it meant the only way KC could miss out was to lose, at home, versus Oakland. There's no way that'll happen, so I thought KC's motivation would be much less compared to Seattle. A lot of 'experts' had talked about how Seattle's rushing game would go well against the woeful KC defense, so I thought why not back the home team.

The days of seeing pathetic 30 yard punts (excluding when the punter has no room) will soon be over. Seattle's Michael Dickson is a rookie from Australia, has made the Pro Bowl, and did yet another drop kick kickoff last night. If teams want their punters to actually flip the field and not give the other team touchbacks, they need to start recruiting more punters from Australia. Seriously, there are thousands of people down here who can kick ovular balls with precision rather than dumping it on their boot and hoping for distance. The number of times this guy has pinned opposition teams at their own 1-yard line is astonishing. He also made a rushing 1st down against Detroit to ice the game... Really, it's not often you see a player come through training camp, replace a veteran, and make the Pro Bowl

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 24th 2018 »

That's intersting what you say about the Australian punters Matt. A similar thing happened in the early 80's when a British Rugby player named Mick Luckhurst joined the Atlanta Falcons as a place kicker. He retired as the team's all-time leading scorer with 558 points (later surpassed by Morten Andersen in 2000). What made him unusual at the time was most of the kickers in the NFL were straight ahead kickers. Luckhurst took his kicks from an angle which is the norm of today.

That's interesting too. I've always wondered why NFL kickers are on average really mediocre considering they get paid close to a million per year. That guy kicked on an angle because in Rugby that's just the way you kick. It means kickers could kick straight, or allow the ball to swing back in line. But a Rugby ball and an NFL ball are very different. An NFL ball has more pointy ends, and it held directly upright by the holder. In Rugby it sits on a kicking tee at a slight forward angle. I wonder whether players need to go back to kicking straight ahead. I mean, the AFC's Pro Bowl kicker was cut by Jacksonville last season, and is no where near perfect.

NFL teams should look to Rugby for kickers too. Australian NRL players don't generally take long conversion attempts, but since they have to kick from in line with where a try was scored, they have much better accuracy. A kicker this year kicked a penalty goal from 55 metres (60 yards) out.

I also found it interesting reading about the program for those wanting to join the NFL who are international. 2 in particular are Englishman Christian Wade (projected to be a RB/kick returner) and Australian Valentine Holmes (RB, WR, kick returner). Wade is 27 and has the 3rd most tries in Premiership Rugby history. Holmes has done just about everything you could hope for in the NRL, and he's only 23. He notably scored 5 tries in the world cup QFs, and 6 tries in the semis. I've seen him play well over 50 times, and he just has 'it'. It would be a marketer's dream; an Aussie hopeful named Valentine.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 24th 2018 »

Great job with the Seattle Pick, Matt. I had thoughts of switching to Seattle when the Chargers lost, based solely on thinking the Chiefs Defense would have the mentality on knowing that game didn't really matter for them. Of course, they were more horrible than usual. XD

Week 17 is going to be interesting. Which teams will actually show up? lol

What do you think with Kansas City? One and done in playoffs? I predict it, and that means NE are guaranteed to go through to the Superbowl. I don't feel confident in them beating any of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, Tennessee, or Indy.

Yep, spot on logic there. You should've picked Seattle. That's why I switched back to them. That's why even though Chicago are better than Minnesota, Minnesota will get the job done at home.

Ugh, I talked about punting yesterday, and it is horrible by Denver. Twice from OAK 48 and DEN 45, they have punted into the end zone and let Oakland start from OAK 20. Logically, in that scenario you get your punter to kick inside the opposition's 10. By gift-wrapping 10 bonus yards, that can be the difference between a team having to punt (where they will likely do a crappy punt that ends in a touchback) and a team kicking a FG. Or the difference between scoring a TD and having to settle for a FG.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 24th 2018 »

Looks like the Raiders don?t want Las Vegas to think they are getting the NFL?s worst franchise in 2020 when they move there. I don?t think the 49rs will be happy next season if the Raiders play their home games at the SF Giants stadium. I?m surprised Denver lost to the Raiders, I had the Bronco defense taking care of business.

About 80% of the mock drafts I have seen have Quarterback Drew Lock going to the Redskins, that would be a step in the right direction.

I?m with you on Kansas Matt, the first team that can put points on the board against them with ease will knock them out the competition, which means basically all the AFL teams in the playoffs. The Kansas defense is hopeless, the team literally relies on Mahomes to win the game which he is struggling to do without Lamar Hunt.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 25th 2018 »

Made my picks for the first time through. Right now, I have 12 home and 4 road. I picked the Ravens over the Browns, but my gut is telling me the Browns are gonna pull the upset on the road. We'll see. Might change. Have time to think.

Yeah, my gut feeling is that Baltimore choke for a 2nd consecutive Week 17 game, but it's sensible for me to tip Baltimore, considering they are at home and have an elite D.

12 home and 4 away teams for me too. I was very close to going with 14 and 2, but that would've been very silly and cost me. 50/50 games are probably Tennessee vs Indy, Minnesota vs Chicago, New Orleans vs Carolina, NY Giants vs Dallas, Tampa Bay vs Atlanta, & Baltimore vs Cleveland. So basically a lot.

We'll have to carefully watch with New Orleans. If they rest their starters, Carolina may try and get a late win, even if it's away from home (1-6 record).

The Chicago Game was not that tough to pick for me. Vikings need the win, and I have a feeling Chicago is going to throw the game. I am sure Chicago would rather face the Vikings in the playoffs instead of the Eagles, which they can get simply by losing.

Breaking News: Justin Herbert will skip the 2019 draft...

We all need to definitely wait for the 2020 draft then. XD

NY Giants are definitely gonna keep Eli for another year now. Jacksonville will very likely pick a QB still, but if not they could always take Flacco or Bradford for a year, while trading their 1st rounder to increase their draft picks for 2020. But anyway, it looks like 2020 will be similar to how the 2018 draft was. I'm looking forward to Miami picking a QB then.

I just had a look at the QB class, and it's flying under the radar. Warrior, you'll know more than me based on the fact I'm sure you've seen some of them play, but it seems to me that the 2nd-4th round will be filled with competent QBs that could be drafted as test projects. Dwayne Haskins will be picked by Jacksonville in the 1st round, but in later rounds, Daniel Jones, Will Grier, Drew Lock, Ryan Finley, and Kyler Murray* will all be options. From reading up on them, they all have flaws, but there's a lot of upside.

I'd say, way too early:
1st Round:
Haskins - Jacksonville
Lock - Washington
2nd Round:
Jones - Denver
Grier - Miami
3rd Round:
None
4th Round:
Finley - Cincy

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 27th 2018 »

Actually, I don't see the Jaguars drafting a QB in the 1st Round. They will have plenty of options in the offseason, most likely Flacco and Bridgewater. Shoot, they might even have options like Manning and Carr available to them. I think they would rather wait on a QB until the 2020 Draft, especially since they can find a veteran in the meantime.

If Haskins and Jones declare for the draft, which both honestly might not, I think they will be the top two prospects and only they will have a shot going in the 1st Round (with Grier and Lock most likely falling to the 2nd Round). Shoot, if Haskings and Jones both return to school, I think we might be looking at another rare draft where a QB doesn't go into the 2nd Round (like the Gino Smith Class, if I'm not mistaken).

If it comes down to Jones and Haskins in the 2019 Draft, I having a feeling Jones will go before Haskins. Some people have compared Jones to Wentz, and a few more foolish people have comapred him to Peyton Manning since they had/have the same College Head Coach. If Jones is available when the Giants Pick, I think they will select him if they deem Eli can't last one more year (or if they would like to groom him behind Eli for a year). As for Haskins, I don't know why, but I think he would be in play for both Tampa Bay (if they get rid of Winston) and Washington. Teams like Miami, Denver, Cincinnati and Oakland, I believe, will be in play for a day two QB.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 28th 2018 »

I changed 2 picks. I'm still at 12 and 4, but switched to one home team and another away team.

If I were JAX & WAS, I would wait another year or wait until the 2nd/3rd round, but I think their organisations are going to get desperate. The fact that Jacksonville benched Bortles, started him the next week, benched him a few weeks later and declared his 2018/19 season 100% over, and now have started him, is worrying. Like you say, a veteran wouldn't be a bad idea, but I can definitely see Haskins fitting into Jacksonville in the same way Watson has with Houston. Both have decent running games, and defenses capable of being elite.

I don't know about Jones. Whenever a QB has a low completion % in college, it screams bust to me. 59% is not very impressive. Maybe you can give me some more info (since I can't actually watch college football), but I wouldn't want Miami taking him.

I think the rumours about Carr leaving should be forgotten about now. Carr has statistically had his best season of his career, while playing with a disgusting WR group. He hasn't been picked off for the last 9 weeks! Like with what Washington did to Cousins, why would you get rid of a decent enough QB that is proven, in place of what will eventually be a rookie pick in the draft. It would be a big mistake for Jon Gruden to ditch Carr.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 29th 2018 »

I see the Packers and Saints didn?t bother turning up this week, it?s the third quarter and neither team has scored a point. Not that it matters as all three of us picked them.

Dallas are struggling against the Giants and they?ve decided to rest Elliott. I need the Cowboys to win that game to pull back even with a Matt. And if Miami can beat Buffalo I can go one game ahead into the late games. It would be ironic if Miami comes in for me and I get second place in the competition on the strength of it.

Well, I hope Chicago enjoys playing Philly next week. They were easily better than the Vikings; I don't know why they didn't just rest their starters and lose so they could bring the whooping next week. They might have just shot themselves in the foot - we shall see next week.

We can include the playoffs in our tipping competition, but I would like them to only be worth a point each, Matt. (Including the Super Bowl)

Since we all agree, our tipping will continue into playoffs. No double points rounds will be set though.

Miami got utterly destroyed by Buffalo. No doubt this is Tannehill's last game for Miami, and probably Gase's too. If they get rid of them both, Miami need to replace executives and do a complete cleanout. It's been waiting to happen for years; just get it over with.

Rodgers got concussed and Kizer came in, to lead Green Bay to a 0-31 home loss... To Detroit... This clearly says what the quality of the GB team is like outside of Rodgers.

Dallas scored a TD on 4th and 15 and converted the 2XP to beat NY Giants. That's so annoying. I originally tipped Dallas, but I read on several websites that Dallas were resting all their starters. But then they decide to start Dak for the ENTIRE GAME, and he throws 4TDs and no INTs...

Baltimore clinched the AFC North (hooray!) with a narrow win against Cleveland. Pittsburgh's dog-like win over Cincy didn't matter though.

Like you say, Minnesota layed an egg when playing for their playoff spot. Ultimately, the reason they won't make playoffs is because of their horrible 6-27 home loss to Buffalo back in week 3... Philly's shutout win @ Washington secures a playoff spot that they thoroughly deserve.

Dennis, you went big this week but it ultimately didn't pay off at all. You've got an uphill battle to catch me (2 games + margin behind). Miami was a horrible choice I'm afraid. No idea what you were thinking (Miami were 1-6 away from home heading into the game). Cleveland nearly got the job done though, so that was tough. You did get lucky with Dallas though. Warrior, you and I tipped exactly the same.

WannaBeLikeMike - 171 (197)
TheChosenOne - 165 (192)
Sanzano - 163 (266)

Indy hold a narrow 17-10 lead over Tennessee, but Tennessee haven't done too badly with Blaine Gabbert starting. The defense has been really good, and it needs to stay that way if they're going to make a comeback.

And Indy won easily, 33-17.

Indy @ Houston
LA Chargers @ Baltimore

Philly @ Chicago
Seattle @ Dallas

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 31st 2018 »