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Matt77 Posted: 02:43 Jun07 2019 Post ID: 3448085
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Fitz may beat Rosen for the starting job, but how long will be keep it? My guess would be no more than 3 games. Everyone knows Rosen is the starter for Miami. Just when they unleash him remains to be seen though.

Carson Wentz has just signed a 4-year, $128 million contract, with $107 million guaranteed. It hasn't quite matched Russel Wilson's $140M one, but their guaranteed amounts are identical. This is just crazy. Wentz has had back injuries recently, and has already torn an ACL. No way in the world do you give $107M of guaranteed money to one of the most injury-prone QBs in the comp.

If the unthinkable happens, and Wentz tears another ACL this season and a 3rd in the future, and never plays again, Philly would be in salary cap hell. A perfect case to look at is in Australia, a player was a hero for his team in the 2012 grand final, and today he is without a contract and has torn SIX ACLs. If his team decided to give him a long-term contract in the 2012 offseason, imagine the consequences. He's played 2 top-grade games in the last 7 years.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 7th 2019 »


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Warrior13 Posted: 19:09 Jun07 2019 Post ID: 3448087
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Not this year. I have the Patriots easily winning the AFC East. Jets are their only competition, which isn't much. Pats will easily go 11-5 or 12-4.
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Matt77 Posted: 22:45 Jun07 2019 Post ID: 3448091
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I think Dennis misunderstood me. I was merely asking the question (is this going to be the year) and hoping this would be the year. I'm with you though. They're certainties to win the weak AFC East (do NOT be fooled by the hype surrounding the mediocre Jets and Bills) and I would be stunned if they didn't earn a 1st week bye.

The only way they don't earn a 1st week bye is if other teams take their chances. NE will lose a few games, but it'll come down to whether the contending teams like LA Chargers/Kansas City/Indy/others can get enough wins on the board. The key moment in their dynasty possibly ending came last season when Miami earned the easiest of 2-point victories against them, and Houston rose to the #2 seed. But HOU's defense proceeded to choke in a shootout and allow a late Philly score. Had Houston won that game and NE finished with the 3rd seed, NE wouldn't have qualified for the Superbowl.


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Sanzano Posted: 02:01 Jun09 2019 Post ID: 3448094
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You two are talking about a hyped up Tom Brady who will do anything for the Patriots to help them win. I see a disgruntled Tom Brady this year who plays mediocre because of how he feels he has been treated by the club. No way is he coming into this season with the same enthusiasm as he has in previous campaigns. I also think there will be a lot more talk about who will replace him and that won't help his mood.

I agree, the Patriots have little division competition so will easily win it with an impressive record that makes them appear better than what they are. I see the Patriots falling in the first round of the divisional playoffs. This year is the Chiefs year in the AFC, Mahommes is the new glamour boy who will be on the front cover of Madden 20 and making the headlines.


As for the NFC, I have no idea who is going to emerge, I suppose you can't write off the Saints. The Falcons are a frustrating team, if Matt Ryan gets his act together they are as good as anyone. What happened to that Atlanta team of a couple of season ago that was killing everyone every week with their passing game? I'm not convinced with the Rams, there's something missing with that team but I can't put my finger on it.

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Matt77 Posted: 04:22 Jun09 2019 Post ID: 3448097
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New England traded away their future in Jimmy Garoppolo because they had faith in Brady lasting many more years. That to me is NE treating Brady very well and showing him the respect he deserves. He also took a pay cut quite a while ago to ensure that they have long-term success and can use money in their salary cap to recruit other players. Stidham will be either traded or cut in a few years time, like the other QBs NE have drafted.

Kansas City are a team to watch. And I don't mean in terms of being a SB contender. They probably are, but I can also see potential for them to flop this season. Can Mahomes repeat what he achieved last season? When was the last time someone won MVP twice in a row? And how do KC go with a full season without Kareem Hunt, and possibly no Tyreek Hill either? Their defense has also been turned over, and it remains to me seen if they will gel in the new system. Add all of this and the fact LA Chargers are in their division (along with hit or miss teams Denver and Oakland), and they are no certainties to succeed again.

New Orleans' pattern suggests they will make the SB this season and lose in heartbreaking fashion, and that in 2020/21 they will win it, so they will be a contender for sure. I'm with you about LA Rams. Last season looked like their best chance, and now that they've lost a few players, they've got to start again in an NFC West that's stronger than it was 12 months ago. Goff had some horrendous games in the later half of last season as well as Gurley (some due to a nasty-looking knee injury). Atlanta need some injury luck, but even still, they're in a tough division. The same goes for Chicago, and there's every chance they do what Jacksonville did last season. The team no-one can write off is Green Bay, with a healthy Rodgers, new coach, and some new players, look out. Th NFC East is extremely weak.

Every year we look at the contenders and who should make playoffs, and there are usually a lot of mistakes. There's bound to be 2 or 3 teams that surprise everyone, and the same amount who are bitterly disappointing. There will be a tonne of pressure on Cleveland.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 9th 2019 »


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Warrior13 Posted: 18:08 Jun10 2019 Post ID: 3448101
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I?m predicting Brady has a better year than last season. Not MVP Level like two years ago, but definitely better than last year.
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Matt77 Posted: 22:49 Jun10 2019 Post ID: 3448102
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tl;dr - You're probably right Warrior.

If you look at New England's schedule:

vs Pittsburgh
@ Miami

vs NY Jets
vs Buffalo
@ Washington
vs NY Giants
@ NY Jets

vs Cleveland
@ Baltimore

BYE
@ Philly
vs Dallas
@ Houston
vs Kansas City

@ Cincy
vs Buffalo
vs Miami


You'll see that Week 1 and 2 are tricky, Weeks 3-7 are cakewalks, Weeks 8-14 are very tough, and Weeks 15-17 are cakewalks again. If NE manage to get through their first fortnight, they should then roll along and begin the season with a 7-0 record. Those easy games are perfect opportunities for Brady to find form, so that when the harder games come later on, he is ready for them.

Really it's the perfect schedule for them. They open their season with a home game against rivals Pittsburgh and the next week travel to their bogey team Miami (remember the Miami Miracle) who they will be desperate to crush. Those 2 games would've given the team huge motivation. Then they have a cruisy time for 5 weeks. By the time they face the hard teams, they will be full of confidence, and crucially they get their bye in the middle of the hard patch. Once they get through those games they may well be emotionally and physically drained, and get 3 dead-easy games to end the season and potentially rest key players.

The key here is that NE have to be at minimum 5-2 heading into their game against Cleveland. That 6-game period is very tough, and they'll lose a few games there I'd suspect. If teams can give NE some early losses, things will only go downhill from there.

Basically, if NE start 6-1 or 7-0 they will earn a 1st week bye, and if they aren't, they may find it tough.

Worst-case scenario for them - LLWWLWLLL LWLLWWW and a 7-9 record
Best-case scenario for them - WWWWWWWWW WWWWWWW and a 16-0 record
My prediction - WWWWWWWWL LWWWWWW and a 14-2 record...

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 10th 2019 »


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Sanzano Posted: 01:48 Jun11 2019 Post ID: 3448103
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New England have a disasterous start, lose their first two games. Brady and Belichick have a massive falling out which results in Brady being benched and Belichick pulls a stunning move by signing Garopollo from the 49rs. Apparently Belichick was 'demoralised' when he was ordered to trade Jimmy Garoppolo a couple of years back so I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happened. I just don't see the Patriots seriously looking to replace the ancient Brady which makes me wonder if they have some kind of sneaky plan up their sleeve like getting Garopollo back. 49rs have two other decent quarterbacks they can pin their hopes on so it doesn't really leave them in a hole if Garopollo leaves. I hear the 49rs are frustrated with Garapollo being constantly injured anyway.

Realistically though, looking at that schedule the Patriots will like I said before breeze into the playoffs and be found out in the first round of the Divisional playoffs.

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Matt77 Posted: 08:16 Jun11 2019 Post ID: 3448106
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I don't see it being Garoppolo, but I agree they will eventually get a QB through a trade. Nearly every QB would love to play under the GOAT coach at a club full of success, so it wouldn't be hard for them to find a QB.

That dream scenario you wrote sounds nice in theory, but they won't lose at home. Last season they were 9-0 at home, and historically they always do well there. They'll avenge disappointing losses to Pittsburgh & Miami that they had last season, and I would be stunned if they didn't start 6-1 at least.

Pre-season games are around 45 days away, and the NFL season about 75. I must say though, I'm not particularly looking forward to it. It seems like it's always the same story. The AFC has a young team that surprises everyone (Oakland 3 years ago, Jacksonville 2 seasons ago, KC last season) that tries to challenge New England, but falls short either through injury (Carr 3 seasons ago), or through choking 4th quarter leads (JAX 20-10 lead 2 seasons ago, & KC lead 28-24 with minutes left last season). The NFC has a strong group of teams, and eventually an underdog advances to the Superbowl (Atlanta 3 years ago as #2 seed, Philly 2 years ago without Wentz, & LA Rams last year as #2 seed) and the #1 seed is eliminated in heartbreaking circumstances (Dallas by a FG 3 seasons ago, New Orleans by the Minneapolis Miracle 2 seasons ago, & New Orleans by a missed PI last season).

I really want a different type of story this time. Philly's fairytale win was great, but it has been inbetween 2 New England SB wins. I want a Jacksonville @ Buffalo AFC Championship game and a Detroit @ Minnesota NFC Championship game. I want some surprise playoff teams like Tampa Bay, Washington, NY Jets, & Cincy. I want a new AFC East champion. When will the NFL's equivalent of Leicester City finally arrive? C'mon, let's have Miami and Washington play in the Superbowl like old times.


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Warrior13 Posted: 09:06 Jun11 2019 Post ID: 3448107
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I can?t pick against the Pats in Weeks 1-9. All of those seem like winnable games, and it?s hard not to go with the Pats in those scenarios.
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Matt77 Posted: 11:23 Jun11 2019 Post ID: 3448108
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Yep. It's daunting for the remaining 31 teams isn't it. I had them losing @ Baltimore, but that was simply a loss I put down due to an accumulation of wins. They surely have to lose one at some point.


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Sanzano Posted: 01:43 Jun12 2019 Post ID: 3448110
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What I can't figure out is that the Patriots have the same cap as everyone else and yet year in and year out they win a Super Bowl or just miss out. What can other teams take from the way New England do things that would help their own franchise. I know it starts with Belichick and Brady, but come on, this is a team sport, the other guys must be doing something right. Those two couldn't win all those championships without a great supporting cast, I don't care what anyone says. And what makes it more impressive unlike the Packers of the 60's, the Steelers of the 70's, 49rs of the 80's and Cowboys of the 90's is that they've done it for TWO decades now with DIFFERENT personnel unlike the forementioned teams who faded as soon as their stars retired. When is this team going to go away, I hate everything about them right down to their uniform. How many years away are we from Cleveland or Kansas City being the top team to beat.

No surprise that Mahommes is on the cover of Madden NFL 20.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Jun 12th 2019 »

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Matt77 Posted: 03:12 Jun12 2019 Post ID: 3448111
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Personnel has changed, but Belichick has stayed the entire time. Clearly it's his coaching that's more of an impact than Brady's passing, since Brady had a mediocre season by his standards and yet they were able to dominate the Superbowl. The way they smothered the high-flying LA Rams offense into producing just 3 points was incredible.

Early on after NE won their first few Superbowls, a winning culture was finally created at a club which as you say, stunk during the 80's. They had a QB who was drafted in the 7th round and given a small chance to make a practice squad and was desperate to keep proving the doubters wrong, and a coach who changed teams and wanted a fresh start. I think once a team starts winning it becomes attractive for other players to join them during free agency. Obviously NE had to work hard to begin with and create the reputation they have today, so that's really how a team will do it. Once NE created this reputation and became a destination club, players started joining through free agency or cheap trades and they've constantly had players coming in and out in every off-season.

LA Rams are an interesting example. After his rookie season where Goff went 0-7 and was horrible, a lot of people wrote him off as a bust and thought the team were heading towards a 2-14 record the next season. But they fired Jeff Fisher, got in a young motivated coach, and Goff turned his form around and suddenly the team starts playing well again, and we see tonnes of players on their list emerge out of no-where. Then they became a destination club (players want to join them) because they made the playoffs when no-one gave them a chance and they had a great young list. Several good players joined either through trades or free agency, and last season they had the most talented list in the NFL and were in my eyes, favouriets to win the Superbowl during the pre-season.

Basically, if a team wants to become a destination club, they need:
a) a new coach --> improved club culture
Bill Belichick and Sean McVay are very different people, but they both came in and created a distinctive club culture. I imagine Belichick encouraged his team to work hard and get on with the job, and McVay created a more laid-back environment. You want your players to enjoy coming to practice and playing on match day.

b) youth --> new talented players
I'm not sure how NE went, but I imagine they had somewhat a talented list when Brady & Belichick came in. They did lose a SB the year before I think. But LA Rams gambled to get Goff, and once he started playing well under McVay, the rest of the team came to life and suddenly there were players like Gurley, Donald, Kupp, Woods etc brought life. And these players will be around for a while.

c) success --> destination club
You can have a good team with good players and a good coach, but you need to show positive signs.
Whether it means shocking the competition and making playoffs, or even winning a Superbowl, that's the recipe. LA Rams had a huge opportunity to win the Superbowl, and if they had that could've been the start of a dynasty. They'l have another chance this season.


If we look at Miami and Washington, things aren't too bad:

Miami - They have Brian Flores as a rookie coach, and hopefully he can improve/manage the club culture. They have youth (Rosen, Drake, Ballage, Fitzpatrick, etc) and hopefully if Rosen plays well, he can unlock their potential talent. If all this goes to plan, they can push for playoffs one day, and hopefully that elusive Superbowl.

Washington - Jay Gruden is the roadblock. He's an alright coach, but I think Washington would benefit from a coaching change. Maybe an ex-Alabama coach? The club culture seems to be alright, so a new coach wouldn't have much work to do in that department. They have youth (Haskins, Guice, McLaurin, Sweat etc) and if Haskins plays well they can show their potential talent. Playoffs aren't far away for Washington, and if they do manage to one day qualify, they could be a real threat. But simply, Gruden needs to go if he doesn't make the playoffs this season.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 12th 2019 »


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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 01:48 Jun14 2019 Post ID: 3448113
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I agree Matt, Gruden will have to be shown the door if he doesn't at least get the Redskins to the playoffs this season. The team is now loaded with talent and ready to go in all areas so he can't use the excuse he doesn't have the personnel and injuries. Having an Alabama coach is interesting though seeing half the team played for the Crimson tide at college.

The NFC East won't be easy to win though with Dallas and Philadelphia in it but it's not impossible. I see Dak Prescott is aiming for a 34 million dollar a year contract, personally I think he doesn't deserve it, If Elliott isn't playing the guy's a mediocre quarterback.

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Matt77 Posted: 04:50 Jun14 2019 Post ID: 3448114
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On April 17, Matt77 said:Just wait for Dak to become the highest paid QB in the NFL. I know what you're both thinking, what the heck am I talking about. But the way quarterback contracts are being put together these days, it seems whoever signs a 4+ year deal most recently, gets paid the most. It went Ryan, Rodgers, and now Wilson. The NFL is getting worse and worse with the extreme amounts being paid to players. It's a disgrace.

If Dak wants $34 million a year, he will get it. Clubs are pathetic when it comes to their QBs begging for more money. If he gets it, it would likely be a 4-year deal which would equal a total of $136 million. That would be just $4M shy of Russel Wilson's record contract.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 14th 2019 »


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Sanzano Posted: 05:38 Jun14 2019 Post ID: 3448115
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Not sure how the salary cap works, surely if there is one in place it will get to the point where giving too huge a chunk to the quarterback will breed contempt and disdain amongst the team. I wonder what the ceiling will be? It can't be far off now, 34 million a year is a ridiculous amount of money for one player. I remember during the 80's nearly half of NFL players had a second job during the off season. Lots of them are now penniless and crippled from playing in the NFL. How things have changed...

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Matt77 Posted: 21:31 Jun14 2019 Post ID: 3448117
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I'd say in the NFL a team's salary cap would have the QB get paid a huge amount, and then any stars in the team getting huge amounts as well. After that the rest of the players probably get significantly lower amounts. And you're right it could make for a chilly environment in the locker room, but I'd say as a player you would need to support the QB or you would find yourself traded or cut very quickly. But if the QB is liked by his teammates, they would be happy for them to be paid big money. It sounds like Dak is well liked.


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john1rugknots Posted: 05:57 Jun15 2019 Post ID: 3448120
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All the best Ikat Wool Rug . Enjoy most things and even big things for free shipping.
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Warrior13 Posted: 20:35 Jun15 2019 Post ID: 3448124
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I like free shipping. XD XD XD

There are a lot of coaches on the hot seat: Washington Head Coach, Jacksonville Coach, Pittsburgh Head Coach, Houston Head Coach, Dallas Head Coach, Atlanta Head Coach, Carolina Head Coach, Minnesota Head Coach, Detroit Head Coach, San Francisco Head Coach. Some more than others, of course.
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Matt77 Posted: 21:24 Jun15 2019 Post ID: 3448125
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That seems about right, but I'd say Houston's and SF's should be fine. Houston over achieved last season and were so close to being the #2 seed (after starting the season 0-3), and Garoppolo missed basically the entire season.

I think by season's end, Washington, Jacksonville, Carolina, & Detroit will sack their coach. Gruden has to make the playoffs with a rookie QB and a roster that is always cursed by injury, Foles can't perform outside of Philly, Carolina are a mediocre mess, and Detroit are...well Detroit.

Tennessee is also a team to watch. They're probably the least talked-about team in the NFL, but this is a crunch year for Marcus Mariota. He hasn't lived up to his #1/2 draft pick hype, and not making the playoffs in a weak AFC a year after they came back from 3-21 down on wildcard weekend and then lead NE 7-0 in the divisional is a big step backwards. They've actually recruited well this off-season (but no-one talks about it), and if they don't make playoffs and/or Mariota doesn't improve, he will be traded/cut and Tennessee will start again in the 2020 super draft. They've made their intentions very clear when they brought in Tannehill as a backup, and if they move on, Tannehill can be a bridge QB.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jun 15th 2019 »


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