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NFL - Discussion & Tipping Thread

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Matt77 Posted: 19:47 Sep03 2019 Post ID: 3448550
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I only went with Tampa Bay because they're playing at home. If it was @ SF, I would've done the same as you.

I was also tempted with Carolina, but they're too weak imo to beat the overrated Rams.


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Sanzano Posted: 01:30 Sep04 2019 Post ID: 3448552
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At the moment we are all using last years season as a measuring stick and we all know that these will be different teams come Sunday. I'm expecting four or five upsets in week 1, happens every year.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 4th 2019 »
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Matt77 Posted: 04:07 Sep04 2019 Post ID: 3448553
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Yeah. I think I'll have another slow start this season. It's hard to adjust to following a sport when it's been the offseason for so long. In my AFL tipping I scored 4/9 in week 1, and no-one in our competition scored higher than 5. Expect low scores from all of us this week.


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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 08:46 Sep04 2019 Post ID: 3448554
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I'm thinking about taking the Raiders to beat Denver on Tuesday night, I think I'll wait to see how many I get wrong on Sunday before I decide on it. I don't rate Denver at all, especially away from home. The problem is I don't rate the Raiders full stop but with all those draft choices looking to impress and Gruden starting to take heat they may be able to pull it off...stranger things have happened in week 1.

The Raiders are 3-2 both straight up and against the spread over the last five meetings between the teams.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 4th 2019 »
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Warrior13 Posted: 11:14 Sep04 2019 Post ID: 3448555
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I went with Raiders. They have something to prove, plus they're at home.

Is picking the Falcons an upset as well? lol
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Sanzano Posted: 01:36 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448556
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The Falcon's was another team I was thinking of taking until I found out they were playing away and the last two times they played Minnesota at home they lost to them so I decided to leave that upset well alone.

At the moment the only team I may have down as an upset is the Raiders. I don't want to gamble to much at this stage and let Warrior13 get an early lead like he did last year because then I end up making wild predictions the rest of the season trying to catch up and find myself falling further behind.

I see that the Australian tipping site gives Washington a 2% chance of beating Philadelphia at home. How do they figure that out? Philadelphia will probably win but there will only be about a 14 point margin, Washington's defense should be good enough to keep it reasonably close. When I see a 2% chance of winning I expect the team to win by about 28 points.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 5th 2019 »
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Matt77 Posted: 02:47 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448557
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I think those numbers mean that 2% of tippers worldwide have tipped Washington. I'm not sure though. Those percentages don't appear in my AFL tipping.

I went with Las Vegas. I think Denver are the better team (just), but the fact that Las Vegas are at home made me go with it.

As for Atlanta, they're a chance to win, but the tipping website put me off when it said only 3% of tippers have selected Atlanta...

Also, Zeke Elliot just signed a $90 million, 6-year contract extension. It equates to an 8-year contract worth $103 million, with $50 million guaranteed. He essentially gets $13 million over the next 2 years combined, and then $15 million every year after that.


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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 04:09 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448559
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Lol, 2% of tippers. I bet that percentage are die hard Washington fans who back their team no matter what the opposition. I find the percentages stat annoying, I hope it doesn't sway my picks too much during the season. I was considering taking the Jets to bet Buffalo, but when you see a stat that says nearly 90% of people disagree, you tend to follow the masses. An experienced, fresh Sam Darnold at home, first day of the new season to me looks like it could be an upset. Not brave enough to take it though....

I personally would have traded Elliott and used the draft picks and money to bolster the team. Like I've said before running backs are two a penny.
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Matt77 Posted: 05:27 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448560
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Yeah, the % is strange. I ignored it when it came to Buffalo @ NY Jets. Surely NY Jets, at home, are favourites?

Imo Dallas made the right decision. Elliot is an elite RB that can hold a franchise together for a decade, while Dak is a dead average QB who needs a strong supporting cast around him for him to succeed.


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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 07:50 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448561
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I would have thought so Matt, I'll have to study that game a bit more thoroughly. I don't know how accurate the rumours coming out of training about the Jets offense being 'Electric' are.

Elliot to me showed his colours, he's just interested in the money. Holding out of camp before the season starts knowing you are a key integral player is just holding the team to ransom. I'd get rid of him. Looks like Cooper won't be getting the money now he wants, that's one disgruntled player already.
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Matt77 Posted: 10:28 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448562
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I don't rate NY Jets, but I don't rate Buffalo at all. The media are desperate for someone to dethrone New England. Personally I think NY Jets will finish around 8-8 (only because 3 of those wins will be against Miami & Buffalo), and Buffalo around 6-10 (only because 2 of those wins will be against Miami).

Yep. Dallas probably isn't the happiest team at the moment. I can't believe NFL.com has Dallas ranked 7th in the power rankings. They rave about Dallas's defense, but the problem is if it doesn't hold teams to below 20 points they will struggle to score enough to win.

I can't believe the season starts tomorrow (today in U.S time). It's felt like I've been waiting for it for a while, but now it's snuck up on me. It's going to be tough for me to follow 5 sports all at once for the next couple of weeks.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 5th 2019 »


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~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 13:20 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448563
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Yeah, I've been looking forward to the start of the season for a while. It makes me laugh though, as soon as the Redskins have five or six losses on their record I'll give up on the season and start studying the NFL draft for next April praying the Redskins have another decent draft. To me Draft day is more exciting than the season opener, especially when Washington have a high draft pick in the first round.

It will be interesting seeing who the break out team this year will be. I wouldn't be surprised if it is Atlanta, if Matt Ryan and Julio Jones can recapture the magic of a couple of years ago they are the easily one of the best quarterback, wide reciever combos in the league.

Why is it I have a sneaky suspicion Chicago will be going places this year, you've got to like that defense they have, I rate it above Dallas personally.
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Matt77 Posted: 23:05 Sep05 2019 Post ID: 3448564
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Green Bay beat Chicago 10-3 after trailing 0-3 at QT.

That looked horrible for Chicago. A high of 19 yards rushing is a concern. Why on earth did they trade away Jordan Howard?

Also in other news, it seems Las Vegas are going to suspend Antonio Brown for week 1. It may change, but apparently Brown ****** off the Raiders GM and he didn't like it.


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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 01:41 Sep06 2019 Post ID: 3448566
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The Bears offense has to take the blame for that loss, they look terrible. 26 completions out of 45 attempts for 1 interception by Trubishky will not get the job done, the Bears need a decent rusher otherwise they are not reaching the playoffs regardless of how good their defense is. Packers defense looks good and Aaron Rogers did well leading his team in a low scoring affair. Annoying, I was going to take the Packers but got put off with them being away from home and constantly reading about how good the Chicago defense is, didn't realise the Bear offense was that bad to be honest.

Antonio Brown is an idiot, the Raiders will look to get rid of him during the season. Threatening the GM of a footbaall club is tantamount to suicide. Not sure what team would want him now, his stock has just plummeted further than it already had.
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Matt77 Posted: 02:22 Sep06 2019 Post ID: 3448569
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I looked at the game stats, and Tarik Cohen (their leading rusher in 2018/19) rushed zero times. He was playing though since he was involved in receiving, but Chicago simply decided that they weren't going to use their best rusher to run the ball. Imagine if Dallas didn't use Elliot to rush once in a game? That's the comparison.

As for Brown, I'm out of words to describe him now. I've said enough about him in the past few months.


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~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Sanzano Posted: 03:32 Sep06 2019 Post ID: 3448570
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Yes I though that was strange as well so I did a bit of investigating. Apparently the Bears want to just use Cohen as a reciever and return man. Although obviously skilled (been to the pro ball) he's only a small guy at 5'6 180 pounds and he won't be able to continue taking the pounding he has in previous years as a running back. The Bears drafted Montgomery and acquired Davis from Seattle to take the pounding but going by yesterday's game they aren't very good and will have to be upgraded if the Bears hope to reach the playoffs.
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Warrior13 Posted: 14:01 Sep06 2019 Post ID: 3448571
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A hundred years of football, and that game last night looked like it took place in 1919. lol

No offense for either team. I can?t help but think they wouldn?t have been so rusty if they had played their starters during the preseason (even if just barely).

Bears are in trouble. That offense looked ugly, and they have no defensive backs that are any good.

Packers are also in trouble. Their offense line is going to struggle against the rushes of Detroit and Minnesota. If they make the playoffs, they?re going to need every ounce out of Rodgers.
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Matt77 Posted: 20:37 Sep06 2019 Post ID: 3448574
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Also remember that Chicago have the worst kicker situation in the NFL. Their kicker did make his only attempt, but he was very nearly cut during the offseason. None of their kickers have been convincing.

Chicago will struggle to score points as it is. If they miss FGs, good luck to them.

EDIT - Now Gruden is letting Brown play. If Brown had been suspended, he would've had his $30 million of guaranteed money voided. The Las Vegas Raiders are looking more and more like the clowns of the NFL.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 6th 2019 »


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~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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Warrior13 Posted: 18:31 Sep07 2019 Post ID: 3448576
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Raiders kick Brown to the curb, only for the Pats to immediately sign him. XD
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Matt77 Posted: 22:16 Sep07 2019 Post ID: 3448583
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...omg.

When you said that I thought you were just being so unrealistic like I sometimes do. And then I checked just in case...

Wtf.

Fantastic move by Oakland. They can keep their dignity for one more season before they move.

Big Ben must be loving this!


ViolinViolinViolin
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

Credits to KingofCorn for the awesome avatar!
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