NFL - Discussion Thread

I changed one of my picks last night to yet another road team, mainly in part of the Injury Report for the game and who is and isn't on it. I really don't like my picks this week. This isn't gonna be pretty.

We say 'it's gonna be ugly this week' etc every week lol, yet nothing changes.

The pick I'm most worried about is Tennessee. Bizarrely, the fact Tannehill was starting was the reason I didn't change it. Lets see what he can do in a talented (yes, Tennessee are talented) team.

Tannessee.

Oh dear.

Dennis, prepare to lose your lead in an instant. Miami to win??? Away from home??? Against one of the best defenses in the league???

It would be hilarious if Miami pulled off the impossible now.

This should be very interesting. Matt and I each picked three different early games from Dennis. He could either gain a ton or his lead could be in jeopardy. I knew this week would be crazy.

Glad I switched form Atlanta to the Rams. Even if the Falcons win, I still feel it was smart.

Well, Dennis is looking good. Giants were pathetic. I have no idea how Dennis knows when to pick some of these mediocre teams and when not to. My Detroit Upset pick hurt me. Really thought they were better than that, but they just let Cousins rips them to shreds. A lot of football left to be played this year, but it's feeling like it's Dennis' to lose.

Looks like I can split with Dennis if the Chargers can win. If not, Matt and I will both be four games back.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Oct 20th 2019 »

Wow.

Dennis, that is unbelievable tipping! How do you do it?! And you even had the tenacity to switch to Tennessee. Not to mention that you listened to my advice on Oakland. You were rewarded for your bravery in tipping Miami, even if they didn't win themselves.

Now...onto the next subject... It was a decent effort, but that was shocking to let that lead slip. At 14-9 up, we converted on a fake FG for a 1st down, and then Fitz goes and throws a pick, which Buffalo eventually converted into a TD a few minutes later. Had we simply rushed for 2 yards, a 21-9 lead was ours. Alas, we are still alive in the race for Tua.

Atlanta were embarrassing. I can't believe I was considering tipping them. Cousins continued his hot streak yet again. Green Bay are heading to the Superbowl to face New England. Houston were bitterly disappointing. NY Giants can't expect to win a game when they fall behind 0-17 at home. San Fransisco beat Washington 9-0 after scores were 0-0 at HT. LA Chargers thought they scored the game-winner at TEN 1, only for it to be short, and then fumbled the next play. Trubisky put up some huge garbage time stats to turn a 26-point deficit into an 11 one. Seattle stunk the joint up, at home!

Dennis, you won't be able to see this in time, but Philly have a lot of injuries, and Dallas have injured players back. And Dallas are at home. I hope you read my post on last page...
EDIT - Um, Warrior, what are you doing tipping Philly???

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 20th 2019 »

I was feeling okay after the early games. Sure, the Giants should've won, but I was okay with my two losses. I was also okay with the Bears and Seahawks losing. I wasn't ecstatic about it, but I was okay, especially since it looked like the Chargers had come back to win. The Chargers losing was the most disappointing thing all day. Scoring a TD only to have it brought back to the one yard line, and then to fumble on the next play? My season of picking in a nutshell. Even the Eagles are getting blown out, and that was suppose to be one of the closest games this week even considering the injury report. This clearly isn't my year.

But I don't mind. We all have to admit that picking in general requires a bit of luck. It just isn't there for me right now. Clearly, luck is on Dennis' side right now, considering all his Bills and Cardinals Upsets thus far this year. This could change in the second half of the year, but I'm just not feeling it. But this seems to be the trend with me lately. Like I said, I won in my family like ten years in a row. After my brother dethroned me a couple years back, I've only done well every other year. This is feeling like one of those down years. I don't know. Too many teams that should win not doing so. Too many road teams winning. This year has been unlike anything I've ever seen. I'm literally ranked in the 5000s on the website we use overall. Last year I was in the Top 100.

Like I said, it feels like Dennis' year.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Oct 20th 2019 »

I thought the injury report was favouring Dallas massively. Did I read a different one?

Lonely God, you should've known LA Chargers would choke. They do it oh so often

Ok. Dallas beat Philly 37-10! I thought they would win, but by about one score, not five.

Sanzano - 67
TheChosenOne - 64
WannaBeLikeMike - 63

Even if Warrior catches us as I predict, it still sets up an exciting rest of the tipping season.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 21st 2019 »

That's so annoying, I wish I would check my picks more carfully, second time this season now. I was astounded to see that I had Miami away going into Buffalo and winning!!!! That was never going to happen, not this season anyway. I also had Baltimore and New Orleans winning but changed them at the last minute because I had too many away teams and thought they couldn't all possibly come in... The last time I do that, 9 away teams won this week. That's three games I dropped through stupidity. Just glad I'm still in front to be honest. Doing next weeks games now...

I wonder how the Browns now feel picking Mayfield over Darnold, probably the same as the Reskins getting Haskins instead of Jones?

I suppose it all balances out. LA Chargers scored a late TD to go up 26-23 against Tennessee, but it was reviewed and called short. Then they couldn't even have a FG attempt, because they fumbled on the next play. LA Chargers should've won that one. Also, remember you originally had Oakland winning? So that's another lucky break.

The fact that you almost tipped New Orleans and Baltimore is worrying. How are you getting all these games correct? I mean no disrespect, but last season you (along with me) struggled at times. Now you're getting so many 50/50 games correct.

There's still hope for Haskins. Washington saved his career by pulling him from the starting lineup. Noe he has time to refine his skills, and Washington can focus on building around him in the coming draft. Meanwhile, Jones got put in very early, and while he had a great debut game, he's gone downhill ever since.

Matt, I never had Oakland winning, I was just concerned about Rogers being injured and his three top wide recievers being reported as 'banged up' whatever that meant. Oakland have been scoring 20 points regularly and my concern was could Green Bay score more than that if their top players were injured.

Last season I only had knowledge in the teams I was personally interested in, this year I'm watching the highlights of all the teams to get a feel for each of them. I like to see game film as opposed to looking at stats, it allows me to see how badly a team gets beat for a Touchdown and how good the tackling and pressure is in general and envision it against the team they are playing the following week.

Good call Matt on Dallas, I thought the game would be closer to be honest. Philadelphia are too inconsistant this year and Dallas have looked lousy the last couple of weeks. Tough game to call, should have taken your advice and go with the home team when in doubt.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Oct 21st 2019 »

Fair enough. And I told you the 'injury' that Rodgers had was faked by the media. His stats yesterday were:
25/31 (81% completion) for 429 yards, 5TDs, 1 rushing TD, and 0INTs.

Sounds like you're a good analyst of the game. Back when I loosely did tipping with Warrior (not in a competition) I had more free time, and watched highlights of a few games each week. I stayed close with him all year, eventually falling short by about 4 games. If I had more time to study each team like that, I would probably do better. In Australia I watch at least 4 AFL games each week, and for the past 4 years have finished top 2 in my tipping competition of roughly 12 people. And it's because I actually get to see game vision, and know when a team is overrated.

What I've noticed with Dallas's results, is that before the Philly game, they were 3-1 against bad teams, and 0-2 against good teams. I can only conclude that Philly are also a bad team. After all, Atlanta are 1-6, and their sole victory was against Philly.

It's been such a weird season that I've lost track of the playoff standings. There are going to be some very interesting wildcard battles. Currently it is: (so close teams are teams with a .500 or higher record)

#1 - New England
#2 - Kansas City
#3 - Baltimore
#4 - Indianapolis
#5 - Buffalo
#6 - Houston
So close yet so far - Oakland

Very few people would've had Baltimore winning the AFC North, but they have a 3-game lead and look certainties to win it. And Jacoby Brisset leading Indy to the AFC South lead? Not to mention Buffalo having a 5-1 record...

#1 - San Francisco
#2 - New Orleans
#3 - Green Bay
#4 - Dallas
#5 - Seattle
#6 - Minnesota
So close yet so far - Carolina, LA Rams, Chicago, Arizona

San Fransisco being 6-0 is stunning. Anyone who had them winning that tough division was crazy. And LA Rams not even in a playoff spot at the moment? I predicted a struggle, but I thought they'd easily make a wildcard spot.

New England destroyed NY Jets, away from home, 33-0.

Sam Darnold went 11/32 (34%) for 86 yards, 0TDs, 4INTs and 1 lost fumble, for a 3.7 passer rating.

So far New England have played:
Pittsburgh (2-4)
Miami (0-6)
NY Jets (1-5)
Buffalo (5-1, but nearly lost to a tanking team, at home)
Washington (1-6)
NY Giants (2-5)
NY Jets (1-5)

How did New England get that ridiculously easy schedule. With a schedule like that they will go the season undefeated and lose in the playoffs when they eventually have to face a decent team. The combined record of the teams so far they have faced is 13-33. Take away Buffalo and it's 7-32. Even when New England reach the AFC playoffs their is not much in their way:

Kansas City
Baltimore
Indianapolis
Buffalo
Houston

You would take the Patriots in an instant over any of thoee teams, the only one that may give them problems is a Mahommes led Chiefs playing at home and that's not going to happen. When they reach the Super Bowl things will get interesting as any one of the following could give them problems. This reminds me of the season New England went through the season destroying everyone and then got beat in the Super Bowl by the Giants to prevent a perfect season.

San Francisco
New Orleans
Green Bay
Seattle

Lol, I don't think I've ever seen a 3.7 passer rating before. Perhaps the Browns did make the right decision going with Darnold. No way was that crop of quarterbacks anywhere near the class of 1984. I don't see any of them becoming the next Marino, Kelly, or Elway. They were all overhyped, same as this years batch and probably Tua too. The only way a team is going to get an elite quarterback these days is by giving them time to develop, throwing basically a young kid of 22-23 into an NFL game is not the way to do it regardless what the fans think, it does more damage mentally than good in my opinion.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Oct 22nd 2019 »

It's because they play in the cakewalk AFC East, as well as the AFC in general. This is why I hate divisions and conferences in sport.

The NFL season should have 31 regular season games. At the end of the season, the top 12 teams make playoffs. The top 4 earn a 1st week bye, and the other 8 play in wildcard weekend, where the 5th seed plays the 12th seed, 6th seed plays 11th seed etc. Then the divisional round would have the 1st seed play the lowest remaining seed, the 2nd seed play the 2nd lowest remaining seed etc. The same process would be repeated in the conference round, until we reach the Superbowl. It would mean that teams from the same conference could verse each other.

A big problem would be that 16 teams would get an extra home game, but that could be negated by having those teams lose one of their home games by going to London, Mexico, or Canada. If there were 31 games, it would mean everyone plays everyone once. Another problem would be the fact the NFL season would go for almost 9 months. It could be shortened though if teams played some midweek games, similar to in soccer. Players whinging about the NFL schedule being too long at 16 are ridiculous. The players are only on the field for half the game, and it is not a continuous game. Players get a rest every 15 seconds. And if with the home-away games, if for example Miami played Washington at home, the next season it would be a Washington home game.

Could you imagine if New England had to play more than 4 NFC teams each year? I mean, this year they get the weak NFC East, with Dallas (overrated), Philly (overrated), NY Giants (rebuilding) and Washington (rebuilding). Imagine if they got the NFC West with San Fransisco, Seattle, and LA Rams?

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 22nd 2019 »

Too many games in your system Matt, NFL players struggle with the 16 game season, that's why they brought in the bye week so players had a week to recover during mid season (they included the pre season).

Just read your post about the Philadelphia injuries, you are right, I would have changed my pick if I had of known that. I do my selections on a Monday morning for the following weekend while everything is still fresh in my mind, I only ever change one or two selections after watching the highlights during the week and that has to be before 5pm Friday (Barcelona time).

I don't understand how NFL players can struggle with just 16 games, in a non-continuous sport? Within a game, a player will only be on the field for half the game. If for example we take Derius Guice, when the offense is out, he is there for various plays, but at the end of each play he will get 15 seconds rest at least. Then when the defense is on the field, he gets to rest on the sideline. The sport doesn't require a huge amount of physical exertion.

Take soccer. Non-EPL teams play 46 games per year, not including domestic cup games. And it's a sport where there is continuous running, and the only breaks players get are through fake injury timeouts, or goals being scored. There are plenty of midweek games too. Yet the players don't complain as much as the precious princesses in the NFL.

If I'm torn with a matchup, I usually check the injury list to sway me. The problem is that the NFL website doesn't actually give an injury list, and it's extremely difficult to find accurate ones on other websites. Last week, if I knew the players who were out for Miami, I would've tipped Washington.

I just did my tips. Keep in mind that the website has incorrectly said Green Bay are hosting Kansas City. It is a KC home game.

I have picked 12 home teams and 2 road teams, excluding the London game between LA Rams & Cincinatti.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 22nd 2019 »

Matt, I have 11 home teams. A couple of games I'm still dithering about. A couple of others that on paper look like a formality but there is a couple of question marks next to them and a couple of other teams where you just don't know what to expect from them until the after the first set of downs. I need to do some more research until I am happy with my selections.

Yeah, there were a few 50/50 matchups where I just picked the home team when in doubt. That tactic of mine hasn't worked particularly well so far this season, but I'm hoping by continuing to tip conservatively, I'll slowly creep my way back up again.

I noticed that New England have traded for the talented WR Mohamed Sanu from Atlanta. The dynasty continues.

I hear Dallas are interested in Antonio Brown, they feel with him on one side and Cooper on the other they wil rip up the league. I personally think they are delusional, it will do is bring locker room problems to the club.

The games look pretty straight forward this week, I've only got two upsets.