NFL - Discussion Thread

Noooo Warrior. We want him to stay in the job!!! He's the GOAT. Spread the word

I figured I will set Week 17 as a joker round anyway. Unless one of you gets really close to me beforehand. In that case I'll use the right that I have earned, and will cancel the joker. If you go into our comp and click on 'Joker 4/5', you'll see Week 17 is purple. That means it is double points.

I'm not sure how much to rate Buffalo's win. I used to think playing @ Dallas was tough for opposition teams, but Dallas's record at home is 3-3. They are also 6-1 against losing record teams, and 0-5 against winning record teams.

I laughed when a few analysts said they would fear facing Buffalo in the Playoffs after defeating the Cowboys.

Scary thing is Lonely God, that the likely wildcard weekend match will be Buffalo @ Houston. Who do you rate the least?

Houston will win. If they don't, O'Brien will be canned.

I watched the rerun of the Dallas vs. Buffalo game and I can now see why they are doing well. It's basically Josh Allen and the defense. Both of which are showing signs of becoming elite. The Buffalo run defense ranks third behind San Francisco and New England and Josh Allen is getting the job done, he reminds me of Joe Montana the way he throws on the run, tough to defend against. I don't in any way think Buffalo will go all the way but I wouldn't be surprised if they cause an upset in the playoffs, especially against a run orientated team.

What a strange week, Washington, Miami, and the Bengals all winning. All three teams looked good doing so as well which makes it even more bizzare, especially the Redskins with Guice putting up 129 yards and 2 Touchdowns, Peterson adding another 99 yards and 1 Touchdown. That's 248 yards rushing (including Haskins and Thompson's contributions). Passing though with Haskins is still poor though although he did show flashes of brilliance. If Washington get a couple of decent offensive lineman in the draft that can protect Haskins Washington should start putting some wins together because the problem is Haskins has no time. Literally, the instant the ball is snapped he's got the defense converging on him from all angles.

I'm now only 4 behind with four weeks left.

My only upset pick in Houston payed off thankfully. Dennis your Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Denver upset picks ALL payed off. Warrior you were the same minus Tampa Bay.

As I originally said, if the scores got close by Week 17 I had the right to cancel the joker round. I may have to seriously consider it now. That was classy tipping, and if my gutsy Houston upset pick hadn't payed off, the gap would've been just 2 games!

Matt - 125
Dennis - 121
Warrior - 119

Stunning victories.
Washington come back from a 0-14 deficit, away from home, putting up 29 consecutive points before a late Carolina score.
Miami come back from a 14-28 deficit, putting up 23 consecutive points before a late Philly score.

Baltimore and San Francisco are the real deal.
NY Jets flopped once again against a tanking team. They're now 0-2 against teams which at the time they played, were tanking.
I knew Tennessee were better than Indy, but my conservative tipping stopped me from being brave. Tannehill's W-L record and offensive stats in general and inside the red zone are elite. They're going to the playoffs.
Similar with Tampa Bay. I tipped Jacksonville cause of 'when in doubt pick the home team'. As predicted, Foles is ordinary away from Philly. Amazing. I predicted Keenum AND Foles to flop, yet their respective new teams still decided to get them. Jacksonville have thrown away tens of millions of dollars.
Oakland are shocking. They have lost their last 2 games by a combined margin of 62 points (including a 3-34 loss to NY Jets, who just lost 6-22 to the winless Bungles).
Green Bay did the usual.
Jared Goff woke up to destroy the Arizona defense, away from home, throwing for 400+ yards, 4TDs and 0INTs in a huge win. Too late.
LA Chargers choked a close game for the 50,000th time in their history.
Pittsburgh are somehow 7-5 despite being a dreadful team imo. Truly awful. And they're making the playoffs currently. The Pittsburgh Dogs are back in full force.
Don't let the score fool you, Houston dominated New England. The score was 28-9 before garbage time points for NE. New England have fallen to 2nd seed crucially, given that they are average away from home.



« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 2nd 2019 »

Nice Houston Pick, Matt. I was going to pick them as well, but it was too risky with being this far back. I hate trailing and having to adjust my picking. lol

Great week, Dennis! You got a little luck with the Bucs and Broncos, but hey, we?re gonna need a little to catch Matt. Let?s keep going for it. Who knows, we might catch him after all. ;)

Tonights game is an interesting one, will Cousins choke away from home in a pressure game against the Seahawks or has he turned the corner and steers the Vikings to a Victory...

I think it's going to be close, there are two stats one of the teams has I particularly like and it is those I am basing my pick on.

Not sure how to take those wins yesterday by those bad teams, I expected all three to lose. Makes the pick selecting now on in more difficult now knowing there is possibility they can compete on any given Sunday against the middle tier teams who cannot reach the playoffs.

Warrior - Now you know how me & Dennis felt last year trying desperately to catch you

Dennis - I'm guessing the first stat is Cousins' record against teams with winning records? And the other being his primetime record? Jk. But I'm confident you've tipped Seattle anyway.

Seattle & Minnesota desperately need a win. In the stuffed NFC, the wildcard teams will probably have 10-6 or 11-5 records. If Seattle win tomorrow then they go top of the NFC West. If Minnesota win, they are just below Green Bay on the H2H tiebreaker (but they can jump ahead should they beat Green Bay in Minnesota).

Amazing that the winner of the NFC East will have a record of 8-8 or 9-7, but San Francisco & Minnesota will probably travel in the first playoff game despite having 10-6, 11-5, or 12-4 records. The playoffs should be awarded based on the best 6 teams in each conference, regardless of divisions.

Do you remember 2014 when the Carolina Panthers won the division with a 7-8-1 record. The Saints only just missed out that year with a 7-9 record. The Panthers went on to win their first playoff game against the Cardinals but got downed by the Seahawks in the game after.

I watched the Baltimore Ravens and that Lamar Jackson is something else, not sure who can stop him to be honest. Patriots couldn't do it nor could the 49rs. The guy is everyhwere, I'm a bit annoyed the Redskins didn't draft him as he was available, he went 32nd in 2018. Everybody else focused on the other four that year, Rosen, Allen, Darnold, and Mayfield and the Hiesman Trophy winner (big clue there as the award is given to the best athlete) dropped to the bottom of the first round. I still can't believe Belichick passed on him with the selection below considering how old Brady is.

Yes Matt, I'm on the Seahawks. It's their impressive turnover record and Russell Wilson being the main reasons.

I do remember that year. I don't think I was following NFL yet, but I recall seeing the record several times later on because it was so bizarre. In fact, they were 3-8-1 before winning their final 4 games. I seem to recall that Philly finished 10-6 that season but missing out on playoffs completely.

Looking at the 2 games Baltimore have lost this season, the key to beating them is to either beat them in a shootout (Kansas City 33-28) or force turnovers and convert them into points (Cleveland 40-25). When KC played them, apart from going down 0-6, they never allowed Baltimore to lead again and quickly scored 23 unanswered points. When Cleveland played them, in the 2nd half they intercepted Jackson twice, recovered a lost fumble from Ingram, and stopped Jackson on 4th down, converting these into a combined 17 points on the following possession. Common features of their losses also were conceding scores of 30+ points, and Jackson failing to reach 70 rushing yards.

I'd forgotten how important the turnover differential was as an indicator of a team's performance. The NFL website is utter garbage when it comes to player and team stats. It takes to long to find stats, and when I looked they don't even have turnover differential. I had to use another website. Not surprisingly 9 of the top 12 teams are teams which are currently in playoff spots. I don't rate Pittsburgh at all, but their differential is T-2nd at +11. Bizarrely, Washington are sitting at +2. Miami are awful though, in T-32nd place with -14.

NFC East numbers:
Washington +2
Dallas -4
Philly -5
NY Giants -14

Crazy stuff. https://www.espn.com/nfl/st...urnovers

Minnesota leading 17-10 @ Seattle at HT. Wilson has thrown a pick-6, and Minnesota have not trailed and not turned the ball over. Cousins is 13/17 for 125 yards, 0TDs & 0INTs. Both teams haven't played at their best it seems, but that's what can happen in games between top sides.

Ouch. Seattle are outscoring Minnesota 24-0 in the 2nd half, and it's not even over. Losing Dalvin Cook to injury didn't help, but this is what you were talking about Dennis. 0 points from Cousins, and an INT added in the 2nd half.

Well Minnesota and Cousins responded to get to 30-34 before missing the XP. Minnesota got one chance on 4th and 3 @ MIN 42, but couldn't do it. Seattle milked the clock and got a late FG, before Minnesota fumbled on the kickoff.

As it stands, the 10-2 SF 49ers will travel and play @ the 6-6 Cowboys.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 3rd 2019 »

2 turnovers, 1 Interception and holding Dalvin Cook to 29 yards, Seattle get the job done just like I thought (hoped). I had a feeling this game would be close though.

Saints vs 49rs is a tricky game this week. Not sure how that one is going to play out. Brees gets the job done and he's at home against a 49rs team who have had their confidence dented by the the Ravens. Another high scoring tight game I think.

Ron Rivera has been fired by the Panthers. He'll be on the top of a lot of team's lists. Wouldn't be surprised if the Redskins hire him immediately.

Carolina needed a fresh start. Regardless of injuries and other excuses, Carolina went from a 15-1 team to a 6-10 team within 12 months, and have made the playoffs just once ever since.

I went with 10 home teams and 6 road teams this week, with 0 upsets. However I would consider 1 to be an upset. There were also 2 games which I wanted to tip a different team in, but was conservative.

Also, I have removed the joker round from Week 17. If both of you are trailing by 5 games or more at the end of Week 16, I will add it in again.

There is hope for you both, believe me. Ever heard of the term 'choking'?

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 3rd 2019 »

I think you may be right Warrior13, I remember Ron Rivera as a player, he was on that legendary 85 Bears team. I didn't realise he was the same guy coaching the Panthers. Appearently Carolina fired him because of the 'embarrassing' loss to the Redskins.

No upsets Matt? You know as well as Warrior13 and me there are always upsets...

I have 7 home teams and 9 away teams. I need those upsets, beging conservative doesn't help me. I think Warrior13 will be going for it as well.

I know there will be upsets. But if I get any upset picks wrong, it means you will be even closer to me. At this stage I'm just sitting back and hoping that you and Warrior are too aggressive with your tipping.

Yep, going all out in a way that I believe is all out. Not confident one bit. XD

At least tipping is still exciting for all parties despite there being a gap in points

Eli is back, baby! (lol). Jones is out because a massive D-lineman fell with all his weight on Jones' foot (the footage looked nasty).

I'm guessing one or both of you have gone with Chicago tomorrow. I hope not. I don't want to have to cheer for a Dallas win...