NFL - Discussion Thread

The game is still going ahead apparently, despite 2 more NE positives.

Struggling to make my mind up on the Bucs vs Green Bay game. Green Bay are 4-0 and have the number one offence in the league while Tampa Bay have the second best defense and are playing at home. Brady tends to come back from a loss strong the following week punishing whoever is put in front of him but that was with the Patriots. Not sure what this Bucs team is capable of at the moment, they don't have the same discipline as Bill Belichicks Patriots. No way would Brady not realise what the down was if he was still playing with New England. Although Green Bay are undefeated the calibre of teams they have beaten has not been good and they have given up a ton of points. I guess I'll have to do what I always do when I'm in doubt and go with the home team. Good luck fellas, hopefully Warrior13 and me can make some ground this week with all these upsets.

I have little doubt that Green Bay will easily beat Tampa Bay. They are Superbowl favourites this season.

Matt & Mike have picked the same thus far, and so has Dennis and myself. We're up one game on y'all, Packers/Bucs will be crucial.

Matt77 said:

I have little doubt that Green Bay will easily beat Tampa Bay. They are Superbowl favourites this season.

This comment has aged rather poorly so far.

Dennis: Great minds think alike. ;)

I do believe I'm back in the game, I only got two games wrong so far this week.

NY Jets didn't score a point against Miami! Are the Jets that bad? Joe Flacco in place of Sam Darnold, I think Darnold would have put a few points up.

Redskins managed to lose in the final minute, looked a bit suspicious, Kyle Allen just had to run with the ball and dive for the goal line instead throws the ball into the ground.

Tampa scored 28 points in the second quarter!

Strange game, both future Hall of Fame quarterbacks played terrible. At least Brady got two touchdowns instead of two interceptions.

How did the Bengals lose, they were killing the Colts midway through the second quarter 27-7.

Cam Newton looked terrible for the Patriots.

Dennis and Warrior, you both did very well. Gained 3 points on me and Mike. And of course, we tipped identically again...

Cincy will always be chokers it seems. And the insanely overrated Colts improve to 4-2.....

I did not see Green Bay getting thrashed. They lead 10-0, and lost 10-38!

Flacco is bad, but the Jets are awful. Miami should've won by more, if not for some aggressive plays by Fitz. It was 21-0 in the first half and 3-0 in the second. Tua made his first NFL passes on the final drive.

Chicago are 5-1...

New England are 3rd in the AFC East

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 19th 2020 »

Still two games left. We all thinking we picked the same?

I've gone with the Chiefs, I can't see them losing twice in successive weeks. As for the Cowboy v Cardinals game that is not so clear cut. I'm going Dallas, I think Andy Dalton is good enough to move that Cowboy offense against the Cardinals. I'm also thinking it's going to be a high scoring shootout. Dallas are due a few wins with the talent they have on that team plus they are playing at home.

I went with the Chiefs as well. I think the Bills could pull off the upset if firing on all cylinders, but I think the Chiefs will look for a revenge win. I have the Cards defeating the Cowboys, but I agree, it's going to be a shootout with those defenses and the injuries they both have.

I went with Kansas City and Dallas with confidence. To me Dallas are exactly the same as they were before. Dalton is a capable QB, and has never had an offense to work with like he has with Dallas.

Interestingly, in the Houston @ Tennessee game, Houston scored a TD to move ahead 36-29 with the XP to come. Had they chose to kick it, they would've lead by 8. But instead they went for the win and tried to win by 9. It failed, Tennessee matched down the field and tied the game with 4 seconds left with a 7-pointer, and then Houston never saw possession in overtime.

Houston are a good team, but their coaching is letting them down. They should be able to challenge for a playoff spot with their soft schedule coming up, but a wildcard spot will be a failure for this season. You have to wonder whether Deshaun Watson will ask for a trade next season.

I couldn't pick the Cowboys, at least not with them allowing 35 points a game. That's horrible.

This was the week of failed 2pt conversions. Texans went for the kill, but it bit them in the behind. Eagles rolled the dice and went for the win at home as underdogs, but they failed and lost. Washington went for the win as well, even though they were on the road, but they lost.

I get the Eagles and Texans going for it all since they were underdogs, but the Skins should've kicked the pat and went to overtime. They had a much better chance of defeating the Giants in overtime compared to the Eagles against the Ravens or the Texans (obviously) against the Titans.

Philly lost by 2. They had to go for the 2XP in order to try and tie the game.

I actually like the idea of going for a 9-point lead, since it was a high-scoring game. That's got to put the Tennessee defense under huge pressure.

Washington may have tanked it. Remember last season when we played Washington, and we decided to go for 2 to win, and it was an epic flop? That's when the tanking accusations came back. From what Dennis said, Allen had a great chance to score, but flopped.
Dennis - Your kicker also missed another FG in that game (47-yarder), and they lost by 1.

Wow, Dallas are in trouble. I thought Dalton would be able to lead the offense to lots of points, but I guess that's what happens when his sample size is one half against a 0-5 team at that time. And conceded 38 points.
Dallas's wins have been:
Atlanta (1-5) when down 24-39 late
NY Giants (1-5) when down 28-31 late

Given how competitive Philly were against Baltimore, they may have a chance to snag the division title.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 20th 2020 »

Well done Warrior13 you had a great week, I think you picked up 4 points on the leaders.

What the hell is up with Dallas? They looked great last season, I had them easily winning the NFC East and with the addition of CeeDee Lamb I saw their offence becoming more potent. Their defense looks terrible, I knew they had problems and people were unhappy the team took a wide reciever instead of a linebacker in the draft but I didn't realise the defense was that bad.

I think they have Washington next week.

I also don't think we will ever see Dak Prescot in a Cowboys uniform again. If Dallas can't win many more games and get a high draft pick they will go quarterback and use the money they will save in not signing Prescott to get some decent defensive players to play along the top rookies they will get in the draft. Not sure where Prescot will end up, he's greediness has cost him millions of dollars whatever happens now.

I got lucky. This upcoming week is pretty difficult.

I was thinking that as well, a few games there that could go either way. Struggling with the Pittsburgh and Washington games at the moment. I've got another five upsets this week...

Dallas is very injured, every single starting offensive lineman is now hurt. And Dak is clearly better than Dalton. I think they'll still win the division with 6 wins though.

Dennis and Warrior, you both had very good weeks with tipping. Dennis you're now just 2 points off the lead!
Mike - 63
Me - 62
Dennis - 61
Warrior - 57

I did my tips for next week. Do not listen to the site. It's broken. NY Jets favourites against Buffalo? Washington over Dallas? Denver over KC? Lol. Essentially I tipped no upsets.

I also noticed something interesting with Miami's net points, and it surprised me. Historically the top 12 teams based on net points will often make the playoffs. Net points tells us that:

Pretenders:
Chicago (5-1) with +12
New Orleans (3-2) with +3
Buffalo (4-2) with -12
Cleveland (4-2) with -24
Las Vegas (3-2) with -1

Surprise packets:
Arizona (4-2) with +54 (4th best)
Miami (3-3) with +47 (6th best)

Miami's losses have been 10, 3, & 8 points respectively.
Our wins have been by 18, 26, & 24 respectively.

Yeah, I'm not sure what are truly upsets or not. Based on Vegas Spreads, I have two upsets.