NFL - Discussion Thread

Warrior - I was going to log on and let you know that I would +1 you if possible, or instead force everyone else to tip NY Jets. But the game hasn't showed up anywhere. Regardless, don't worry, you tipped Pittsburgh.

Dennis - I am also considering the Washington upset pick given how poor Pittsburgh were against Baltimore, and given their cakewalk schedule. Seriously, take a look at it. No wonder Pittsburgh are 11-0:
10 point win @ NY Giants (4-7)
5 point win vs Denver (4-7)
7 point win vs Houston (4-7)
9 point win vs Philly (3-7-1)
31 point win vs Cleveland (8-3 but overrated)
3 point win @ Tennessee (8-3, Tennessee missed a game-tying FG)
4 point win @ Baltimore (6-5)
5 point win @ Dallas (3-8)
26 point win vs Cincy (2-8-1)
24 point win @ Jacksonville (1-10)
5 point win vs Baltimore (6-5, with many key players out)

The @ Tennessee and @ Baltimore wins are good, but the rest of the games are cakewalks. Their opposition has a combined record of 49-70-2.

I don't see Washington defeating Pittsburgh. If anyone is going to do it, it will be the Bills, Colts or Browns. If they somehow go undefeated in the regular season, I don't see them defeating the Chiefs at full go.

Okay, can I please make an argument against this "they haven't played any good teams" take? Matt correctly notes that the Steelers combined record against is 49-70-2. The Chiefs' record against is 51-70. Why isn't everyone saying they've got an easy schedule when statistically theirs is weaker than Pittsburgh's?

They beat the 3-8 Chargers in overtime, lost to the 6-5 Raiders, and have won their last 3 games (against the 4-8 Panthers, Raiders, and underachieving Bucs by a combined 9 points. Their only real blowout wins are against the Jets and Broncos. Both the Steelers and Chiefs have played against 4 teams with winning records. The Packers record against is 56-66, and only face one team the rest of the season with a winning record. You can do this with nearly every winning team, and those you can't likely have weak schedules remaining.

You can only play the teams on your schedule. And it's frustrating to see every day that the Steelers are "The worst 11-0 team ever", even if it may be true. Also remember that the Steeler's schedule looks weaker in terms of opponent record because they are undefeated - that's 11 games in the loss column with 0 in the win. Contrast that with the Jets who have given up 11 wins and 0 losses. It makes the teams they've played look better while making the Steelers opponents look worse. Like, are the Bills and Dolphins as good as their records? They've both beaten up on the Jets twice. You can argue about this all day.

« Last edited by steelersrock01 on Dec 4th 2020 »

If KC were 11-0 then the haters would be out saying the same thing. I just think people can't believe that Pittsburgh are undefeated.
Miami's opponents are 43-78 (not helped by the 0-22 Jets), and have played 3 teams with winning records for a 2-1 record.
Buffalo's opponents are 60-61 (not helped by the 0-22 Jets), and have played 7 teams with a winning record for a 4-3 record.

For me, it's frustrating because this is how Pittsburgh have been for years. You call is 'Steelering', I call it something else. They have a habit of fluking undeserved wins and having an inflated W-L record. They beat NY Giants, Denver, Philly, Dallas, @ RG3 by a combined 33 points. An 11-0 team should be beating at least 3 of these teams by double digits.

They've actually started to beat the bad teams by big scores in recent weeks, so let's see if they can handle the better teams.

Mike: Probably cuz the Chiefs are basically an unstoppable force at full go. The Steelers largest win margins are against the Browns, Jags & Bengals; the rest, though Ws, have all been close. If they can go undefeated, maybe the referendum will change. Until then, you gonna have to accept the doubt. Basically like the Packers in regards to facing physical foes.

I get your points, but at a certain point a win is a win. The Steelers lead the league in point differential at 11.7. The Chiefs are second at 10. It's the NFL, even the best teams aren't going to win blowouts every week - even the worst teams have some talent or get lucky. For the record, last year Baltimore led the league at +13.7 and New England was second at 11.1. KC was 4th at 9.7. In 2018 KC led with 8.7, and in 2017 Philly with 10.8.

This year winning every game by a single touchdown would put you in the top 5. Matt, those 5 games you mentioned where they outscored opponents by a combined 33 (it was actually 34 unless my math is wrong) would put them in the number 4 spot at 6.6/6.8, behind only KC, New Orleans, and Miami - squarely into contender category.

It seems like they're well in line with what other great teams do every single season. No team ever wins every single game by 14+ points. You have to go all the way back to the Patriots undefeated 2007 season to get a number above 13 (+17.5!!!), and they were helped by 2 games where they outscored opponents 108-17.

I know it's only happening because they're undefeated, and if they were 10-1 like the Chiefs it would be different. It's just frustrating to hear them being called "the worst undefeated team ever" just because the games aren't very pretty and they aren't playing to their potential. I actually really like the point differential = success and every team that wins the Super Bowl is generally in the top 10, usually the top 5. And the Steelers are first, so give them some credit. You call some of their wins "underserved" - they are just wins. I agree they've had a soft schedule and that some of the wins were fluky, but that's just as much a knock against the teams they beat than it is against the Steelers. Tennessee's kicker should've made the field goal, Lamar Jackson should've played better in the first game. You can do this with literally any game.

I just think it is unrealistic to expect any team to blow out the bad teams or any team week after week. It just doesn't happen. Looking at another good team, the Saints, they've got:

6 point win against Detroit
3 point wins against Carolina, Chargers, Chicago

With 2 nice wins over TB, a win over injury riddled SF, and blowouts against 4-7 Atlanta and Denver with no QB.


I guess the crux of my argument is that there's a reason why the odds for games are so rarely more than -10. This upcoming week the Chiefs are only 13.5 point favorites against the Broncos, and who is even going to be playing QB for them? There is a difference between what "should" happen and what realistically does happen.

« Last edited by steelersrock01 on Dec 5th 2020 »

Dallas are considering trading Dak Prescot and their number 1 pick in the draft along with a few other picks to the New York Jets for the first pick and Trevor Lawerence.

Seems a bit unlikely to me but then again it wouldn't surprise me. It gives the Jets an experienced player to build around who is still young.

No one would accept a trade like that. Lawrence is going to the Jets unless they get the largest draft treasure trove in the history of the NFL.

I bet Dallas was considering that, lol. It's not entirely crazy. A consensus top 10 QB (injured, but expected to fully recover) and more draft picks would be huge for the Jets, potentially more than just a QB no matter how hyped he is. Though Dak is in the final year of his contract and would have to agree to signing with the Jets for any trade to happen, which is unlikely.

I only have two upsets by Yahoo. But feels like more.

Well, I'm most likely out. At least I can say I tried.

Atlanta choked the come back after being 1st & 10 on the Saints 20 late. Bears choked after being up 10 with 3 minutes to go; Nagy might be on the chopping block. Titans choked bad. Seahawks choked.

Cardinals were abysmal and might have cost themselves a playoff spot. Chargers got absolutely annihilated; I went with the upset, but I thought that one was going to be close either way. Not sure the Pats have a path to the playoffs, but they are hot right now.

Colts almost choked. Raiders almost choked. Vikings almost choked.

Crazy week.

Edit: Just saw we all struggled outside of Matt. Jeez, he's coming back late like last year. lol

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 6th 2020 »

Yesssssssssss.
My Detroit upset and New England 50/50 came through, and I successfully resisted tipping Atlanta. I thought Detroit would play with freedom, having a new coach, and they were playing Chicago who were 0-5 in their last 5 games. I tipped NE because I thought LAC would choke, but then they scored 0... And I genuinely thought Atlanta were favourites, but didn't fall for the trap like I did a few weeks ago.

Thoughts:

- What are Tennessee. Down 7-38, at home, at half time. And what are Cleveland? They've dogged several undeserved wins, and then they thrash Tennessee before garbage time
- NY Jets should be docked their #1 pick. That was blatant tanking, and they NEED to be investigated. An 8-man blitz which left the entire end zone open with a 4-point lead and 13 seconds remaining, is a disgrace. I hope Trevor Lawrence was watching this. If Las Vegas make the playoffs, the 8th seed should be furious
- Jacksonville yet again get so close. NY Jets are 0-12 and tanking, and Jacksonville are 1-11 but extremely competitive
- Houston had 2nd & Goal at IND 2, trailing 20-26, and Deshaun Watson fumbled
- Hilarious by Chicago. Lead 30-20 with 4:33 remaining, and Detroit had the ball at DET 4
- Atlanta had 3rd & 2 at NO 13 with 1:49 remaining, trailing 16-21, and then Gurley rushed for -7 yards
- Seattle are a joke. Lead 5-0, at home, to the Giants, and lost. Warrior, you were right. Well done!
- Arizona lead 7-0, at home and then lost 28-38. Had they not scored off a hail mary against Buffalo, they would've been 5-7
- Oof
- Wentz got benched, and his starting career may be over
- Kansas City got another narrow win against a bad team
- Cincy were awful, so a 19-7 win for Miami is very disappointing. Red zone offense was awful. Tua had a good game, but could've been intercepted twice

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 7th 2020 »

Pretty fun week. That New England win was crazy. Warrior, don't give up. My buddy was down 9 two weeks ago and now hes only down 1.

I'll keep trying, don't worry. Gonna have to gain like two each week. Not impossible, but very difficult at this time of year. At least there are 16 Games each week to try to do so.

I couldn't believe the Pats Games. I think I had it like 24-20 Chargers in my mind, definitely not a 45 Point Shutout. Ouch.

I don't get the NFC West. It was said to be the best division only a month ago, but now it's pretty mediocre. Seahawks choking against crud teams. Cardinals just losing in general. And now the Rams are leading, but even they have choked against the 49ers twice. That division is smoke and mirrors. Even if three sneak in the playoffs, I don't see any of them going far. But it's the Rams to lose with three of the last four at home.

On a random subject: Jets are definitely going winless in my eyes. Seahawks gonna murder them after choking this week. Rams will take care of business in order to keep lead or keep fighting for it. Browns are cruising right now. And no way Belichick will lose on Week 17 and give them their only win. Enjoy Lawrence. Oh, and in the draft simulator I use on PFN, it would cost the Jags all of their picks this year simply to move up to #1 to nab Lawrence. I can't see that happening, but if I were the Jets, I would accept that kind of trade and roll with Fields. Honestly, there's not a huge difference between the two (and Fields is a slightly better athlete).



« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 7th 2020 »

Well, the Steelers are no longer the worst 11-0 team ever. Now they're the worst 11-1 team in the league.

Washington is really not a bad team at all.

Omg... The Skins did it...

I managed to watch the last quarter of Washington @ Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh had zero offense. The decision to go for it on 4th & 1 was costly, as Pittsburgh could've gone up 20-17 late. Instead Washington matched down the field with ease, Smith converted big time on 3rd down, they scored to lead 20-17, then Montez Sweat tipped Big Ben's pass, and Washington got the game-sealing INT.

Pittsburgh were 78-1-1 at Heinz Field when leading by 14 points or more. They lead 14-0 in the 2nd quarter, and were outscored 3-23 ever since.

Alex Smith has CPOY guaranteed now. Honestly, he is back to how he was playing pre-injury, when he lead Washington to a 6-3 record. The stats look mediocre, but from watching the game you could tell his presence lifted the team.

Had Washington not blown chances against NY Giants x2 and Detroit, they could've been 8-4 with a 5-0 divisional record.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 8th 2020 »

I think he had CPOY wrapped up before he took a snap, tbh. If Pitt had to lose I'm glad it's to a guy like Smith with such a great story

The question now is: Will the Steelers bounce back or lose two in a row now facing the Bills on the road?

If Buffalo play well, they should win. But it is Buffalo, so we don't know what to expect.

If Pittsburgh aren't careful, they could do a Cincy. A few years ago they were 8-0, before going 4-4 in their last 8 games and losing (again) on wildcard weekend. And guess who they lost to? If Pittsburgh lose their #1 seed to KC, they'll get no 1st week bye.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 8th 2020 »