NFL - Discussion Thread

Green Bay scrape a 24-22 win against the mediocre Browns, at home. Not great stuff by Green Bay. On the other hand, Cleveland's playoff hopes are essentially over (they must win their last 2 games & have other results go their way).

Warrior has gone with Arizona, while the rest of us have taken the 'upset' (not upset) pick of Indy. So far Arizona have missed an XP and failed on 4th down instead of kicking a FG, and Indy have also missed a FG.

Well, that one hurts. lol

This week is crazy. Niners, Browns, and Cardinals all should have won easily but didn?t because of miscues. This is not how you make the playoffs.

Arizona and Indy both made mistakes, but Arizona made more. I watched a quarter and when Indy basically lost their entire o-line, I thought they were toast. But Arizona flopped yet again.

Dennis stays within 1 of me. Warrior falls to 2 behind. Mike stays at 3 behind.

I didn't get to see much of the game, just a few plays here and there. But both of those teams look very beatable. Cardinals seem like they peaked early and are now just limping along, shades of last year's Steelers. The Colts are a solid team but much like the Titans and the Ravens are reliant almost entirely on the run game. Their offenses really struggle to get going when they have to rely on the passing game.

Wentz has been putting up decent stats, but Jonathan Taylor is 100% carrying that offense. Hard to win game sin the playoffs with such a run-heavy offense, and not great for long-term success. Look at the Panthers with Mccaffery, and he had the benefit of being a legit #2 receiver as well.

Ryan Tannehill has pretty quietly been having a bad season, one of the worst of his career. Obviously the Titans have been dealing with injuries to Henry and Julio Jones, but this is still a disappointing season for Tannehill by his standards since joining the Titans.

Similarly Lamar is having maybe his worst passing season as the full time starter and he's not been as good on the ground this season either. It's honestly silly he got the Pro Bowl nod over Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow or Wentz, or even Derek Carr or Tua, though I don't think Tua has the volume to get there.

On Tua, statistically he is the best QB in the NFL in 4th quarters. He's also the most accurate QB in his first 20 games in 50 years. His stats are also very solid, despite at least 30% of NFL fans still calling him a bust:

11-7 record as a starter
238 yards per game
7.1 yards per attempt (18th in NFL)
36.1% of 1st downs converted (12th in NFL)
14 touchdowns
3 rushing touchdowns
8 interceptions
0 lost fumbles
70% accuracy (1st in NFL)
94.3 passer rating (17th in NFL)

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 26th 2021 »

I read that as well Matt, I'm intrigued to see what Tua can do against the Saints secondary on Monday night, the same New Orleans team that keeps stuffing Tom Brady.

No way is Tua a bust now, anyone who call him that is just being ignorant, the guy has better stats than any other quarterback at this same stage of their career. He does though still have the fragile label due to being forced to sit out of games with four different injuries.

Well, I am probably out now. Looked like my Jags pick was gonna win it at the end, but they could not score it from the five with four chances.

Couple of rough picks for me this afternoon, I'm probably out as well. Oh well.

On Tua, he obviously excels at those short yardage, high accuracy passes, but I don't know if people are ever going to talk about him as an elite quarterback with rate %s that low. Whether that's a limitation of the offense they've built or of Tua himself I can't say. I'm afraid he's always going to be the type of guy that teams are looking to upgrade from.

I thought Carr had Covid and wasn't playing. What happened to the Netflicks guy everyone had been raving about, he didn't turn up tonight. I think I am two behind Matt now. I don't think I can catch him, Matt never drops three games this late into the season, there is too many stats out there for him to study and make the correct pick.

What has happened to the Chargers? They looked like they were going places at the start of the season. Pittsburgh have rolled over and died.

Dream tipping week from me. The 2 games I resisted the urge to tip the upset (Minnesota and Detroit) didn't have upsets. Shame no one else fell for the traps. Warrior & Mike's Jacksonville upset fell through, and Dennis & Mike's Denver upset fell through too.

I believe this means Dennis is 2 games behind, Warrior is 3 behind, & Mike is 4 behind. Still within reach if someone has 2 good weeks.

I will look more closely into the games later. But it looks like there was some serious choking this week.

It will be extremely difficult for me to come back. I am still leading in my family picks, and I do not want to lose that trying to catch up here. Just gonna keep picking how I usually do, rooting for Dennis to win his first.

I'm 2 or 3 behind in my other group, so I still need to be aggressive. We play through the playoffs in that one though, and playoff games are a bit trickier.

If Phins win out, they will officially be the Wild Card. Tough ask though with the Saints, Titans, and Pats all left.

We should realistically beat New Orleans (Ian Book starting) and New England (at home). Tennessee is the tough one. They are now getting their players back. I think we'll lose to them and will need to rely on other teams losing, which is unlikely.

Saints could still be tough. They know the NFC Wild Cards are still up for grabs. Positives: Ian Book likely starting, coming off a huge win. Negatives: They are still in the playoff race.

Pats could also be difficult depending on if they can win the division or not. Positives: Likely will be out of division contention, do not play well in heat. Negatives: Could still be in division race, Belicheck will probably choose to play starters regardless.

Titans Positives: They do not need to beat us since they will clinch their division with a win over the Texans in Week 18. Titan Negatives: Getting healthy, might want to win their division now and rest in Week 18.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 26th 2021 »

Miami's got a decent shot at that last wild card. You have to assume that either Bills/Pats or Colts/Titans are taking the first two slots, I guess. Bills have the Falcons and Jets left, Pats have the Jags, I think you've got to assume the Bills win both to go 11-6 and win the division, and the Pats win vs Jags. We give Miami winning out to make the Pats and Miami both 10-7 with Miami winning the tiebreaker based on head-to-head games.

Tennessee loses to Miami and beats Houston to finish 11-6 and win the division, Indy beats the Raiders and Jags to also finish 11-6 but loses the tiebreaker with the Titans and gets the wildcard spot.

The AFC North kind of a mess. Cincy is the presumptive winner, if you assume they lose to KC and beat the Browns they finish 10-7. If the Ravens lose to the Rams and beat the Steelers they finish 9-8. If the Browns beat the Steelers and lose to the Bengals they finish 8-9, and the Steelers finish 7-9-1 in this scenario, so only the Bengals make the playoffs as division winner.

In the West, if the Chargers beat the Broncos and Raiders they finish 10-7. That gives us this seeding:

KC
Tennessee
Buffalo
Cincy
Indy
Miami/LA Chargers/Patriots

I'm not sure who wins the tie between Miami and LA and LA/Patriots in this scenario. 2 of 3 would get in. But Miami basically needs to win out to make it substantially less complicated for themselves.

« Last edited by steelersrock01 on Dec 26th 2021 »

Washington got destroyed by the Cowboys who are now firing on all cylinders, it's going to be interesting watching them in the NFC championship game against the Packers. I think Green Bay at home wins that one, might have been a different story if Dallas were at home.

Best part of the Washington versus Dallas game was the Allen and Payne fight on the sidelines.

Last two games of the season are crucial for so many teams this year.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 27th 2021 »

Mike: Yeah, I got the Chiefs, Bills, Titans, Bengals, Colts, and Pats making it. Only one Wild Card is actually left at this point in AFC.

Dennis: The question is: Who will be motivated in the Cardinals/Cowboys game next week. Cardinals are unlikely to catch the Rams now, so they will be a Wild Card regardless if they win or lose out. Cowboys are also not going to catch the Packers for the #1 Seed, so one has to wonder if they would rather be #2 or actually get some rest before the playoffs.

As neither team has nothing to play for, it makes it tough to predict a winner. I guess in these instances you have to take the home team who you would think would put in more of an effort for the fans that still showed up regardless.

Looking like Russell Wilson will be a New York Giant and Deshaun Watson will be a Cleveland Brown.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 27th 2021 »

Poor quality game between New Orleans and Miami. Miami scored a TD off a pick-6, and a field goal after almost losing the ball twice. Then Tua took a sack in FG range and we then missed the 59-yard FG. New Orleans' only points came thanks to a 15-yard facemask penalty.

Both teams have also given away dumb penalties. Tua has made some good throws which have been called back thanks to o-line holding penalties.

It's anyone's game. Miami have to either force another mistake from Book or stop the dumb penalties, or they will lose.