NFL - Discussion Thread

God, what the hell are Tennessee doing in a list of quality teams??? No offense, it's your opinion, but I think it's a very wrong one. They've had 1 game that impressed me (Seattle). These are their results:

Lost 16-26 to Oakland (4-5)
Won 37-16 against Jacksonville (6-3) - Scored 31/37 points in the 2nd half against a terribly inconsistent Jacksonville team.
Won 33-27 against Seattle (6-3) - Seattle are average in the first month every season. Still a solid win.
Lost 14-57 to Houston (3-4 with Watson)
Lost 10-16 to Miami (4-5)
Won 36-22 against Indianapolis (3-6) - Were trailing 15-19 at 3QT (at home) to the lowly Colts.
Won 12-9 against Cleveland (0-9) in overtime - Scored 0TDs and barely beat the winless Browns.
Won 23-20 against Baltimore (4-5) - Baltimore are terribly inconsistent and had a bad one.
Won 24-20 against Cincinnati (3-6) - Were trailing the woeful Bungals 17-20 late.

Their opponents (excluding Houston's 0-2 record after Watson's injury) combine for 33-37. I admit after analysing Tennessee aren't as bad as I thought, but they are not quality. The loss to Houston says everything. After upsetting Seattle in a massive confidence booster, you get thumped by 43 points to a rookie QB. Tennessee will make playoffs definitely, but only because they have an extremely soft schedule. And, in their 4-game winning streak, their opposition has combined to 10-26.

But yes, Miami are awful. A 6-10 finish surely is coming up (2-8 to end the season). There is too much talent in that team for them to finish under .500, but awful playcalling combined with the awful decision to hire Jay Cutler has killed this team. I was following the game, and it was a 3rd and 14, and Miami decide they are going to run the ball. They make 5/14 yards. How likely is it that you are going to rush for 14 yards??? Then on the last play of the 1st half (Miami were only trailing 7-17) they decide to kneel instead of try a hail mary. This team's elite rush defense has also gone out the window, telling me that they've given up. And there is 7 games to go with no rest. Next week Miami & Tampa Bay should just sleep on the field to tie 0-0, and give each other a bye week, cause they aren't going to the playoffs & they have no reason to win.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 14th 2017 »

Lol, I was just pointing out that the quality teams are starting to put a winning streak together, Tennessee just so happen to have a winning streak of four games, I didn't say they were quality in particular, they're not going anywhere. Carolina though is beginning to bug me, I'm wondering after the demolition of Miami if they are suddenly going to come alive after a patchy first half of the season and make a run for the playoffs. They've got three tough games coming up which I'm hoping will knock them out of the race (New Orleans, Minnesota, and Atlanta).

It's still not clear cut in the NFC what teams will reach the playoffs, the dynamics of the league keeps changing from week to week, it's looking like the teams that are in form at the end of the season when a bunch of them have similar records are the ones that are going to make post season play. I'm hoping Washington with their easy second half schedule and injured players coming back into the lineup will be one of them. If only they could pick up a quality running back in free agency like Philadelphia did with Ajai instead of sticking with those three muppets they currently have.

Carolina are going no-where. Yes they were my very early pick for a spot in the NFC Championship game but when you lose to Chicago 3-17 no-one will ever take you seriously. The performance from the RBs we saw is totally inaccurate, as they were playing a defense which has run out of gas. It's like if they played Denver or New York Giants's defense. Against good defenses Carolina have Cam Newton the QB, & Cam Newton the RB. No-one else. And that's when he gets found out and throws picks due to too much responsibility. In playoffs teams will not give him the freedom he had against Miami. When Cam has a bad day it translates to a 1:3 TD:INT ratio, and you cannot recover from 3INTs in playoffs. For Carolina to make playoffs they need to hope for Seattle or Dallas to falter, or even worse have to beat New Orleans in the division race. To do so, they need to either finish with 1 more win, or manage to upset them IN New Orleans and finish with equal wins (not taking into account other tiebreaking procedures). In short they are no certainties to make playoffs. Baltimore destroyed Miami 40-0, yet Baltimore have ZERO chance of playoffs. A 45-21 win for Carolina means very little.

Potentially Philly could drop the #1 seed when their schedule gets tougher, and if that happens they may be one and done. I didn't think Minnesota, LA Rams, & New Orleans would have a 7-2 record and be just a game away. I'm guessing those 4 teams will easily make playoffs, and it comes down only to the wildcard spots. Detroit have a fairly easy schedule and could potentially snag one. Seattle are in the box seat (and will even contest for the division title) but losing Sherman for the season is a massive blow. Their losses to Tennessee and Washington will come back to bite them. They could've been #1 NFC seeds. Carolina & Atlanta are also in the mix, but Atlanta seem like long shots. Dallas will have to improve and hope that with Elliot, they can win their last 2 games (Seattle, Philly) and get enough wins. Washington need a strong, strong finish, but should return to their usual mediocre form sadly and will probably lose to awful teams like Arizona & New York Giants (last season when they finished 8-7-1 they tied Cincinnati, and lost to teams like Carolina (6-10), Arizona (7-8-1), & NY Giants (in a match which NY had 0 reason to win, & Washington were playing for a guaranteed spot in playoffs). Really they should finish minimum 9-7 this season, but they'll likely be 8-8 or 7-9.

That's pretty much how I look at things Matt.

Some good games this weekend, I'm looking forward to Washington against New Orleans and Dallas against Philidelphia. Another interesting game is Minnesota against LA Rams, two teams that have looked impressive recently going unbeaten in five games. The Seattle against Atlanta game on Monday night is also an interesting game as niether team can afford to drop many more games and expect to get into the playoffs. The same thing can be said for Washington and Dallas who need to cause upsets and beat New Orleans and Philadelphia to keep their playoff hopes alive. Every game from now on in is crucial.

Just had a look at ticket prices for games on Sunday and the top starting price is 124 dollars for the Seattle vs Atlanta game where there are 836 tickets left for purchase. At the other end of the spectrum is 5 dollars for the Jacksonville vs Cleveland game where theree are 6,374 unsold tickets. Bit of a difference...

$5...Poor Cleveland. Hopefully this season they draft a franchise QB and fix up other positions so they can start winning again. Kizer doesn't look that good to me, but then again if Wentz or Watson went to Cleveland they would be duds. Do you think Cleveland should draft a QB (they have Kizer, Hogan, & Kessler already)?

I found a site that combines a whole lot of stats that calculate team efficiency. They essentially combine offense, defense, & special teams to work out a positive or negative percentage. Interestingly enough, after Washington's nightmare schedule, they rank 15th with a +6.5% rating. On the other hand, Miami are ranked last with -35.2% (3% lower than Cleveland). Just says that despite Washington & Miami both being on 4-5, Washington are better than their record, and Miami are flattered; they should be 1-8.
http://www.footballoutsider.../teameff

I agree with the matchups you mentioned being critical. There are quite a few I'd say:
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh - 2 teams with misleading records have a chance to prove themselves in primetime & bolster that misleading record even further.
LA Rams @ Minnesota - One you mentioned. The prize in this game is huge; 8-2 compared to 7-3. LA Rams have competition in their division and need to win otherwise Seattle may jump them. Minnesota also need to win cause Detroit have a very easy schedule remaining.
Washington @ New Orleans - I still think NO are due for a loss, and Washington MUST snag an upset soon. If (it's a big if I know) Washington stop NO's running game, the passing games are almost identical. If Washington win they can even up to 6-6 against NYG in a fortnight. If New Orleans win they surpass their 7-9 record they've gotten the last 3 seasons.
Buffalo @ LA Chargers - LA's season is pretty much over, but another loss absolutely finishes them. Are much better than their record (3-6) and should be at least 5-4 if not for choking. On the other hand Buffalo are back to the mediocre team they've been for the past 18 years, and if they lose it's almost season over for them. I have no idea why Tyrod Taylor was benched against New Orleans, but if they go down the horrid path of changing QBs mid-season is could spell disaster.
New England v Oakland (in Mexico) - Huge test for Oakland, and would be huge if they won to get back even at 5-5. NE are coming off an away game, and then have to travel to Mexico. Oakland just had their bye. If anyone's going to upset NE, it's gonna be Oakland.
Philly @ Dallas - Another you mentioned. Dallas look a shell of themselves with key injuries/suspensions but homeground advantage combined with a divisional game makes it very interesting. Philly will have it's first test since overcoming Carolina away. Logically Philly win this by 20 but strange things happen in divisional games.
Atlanta @ Seattle - The other one you mentioned. While Atlanta destroyed Dallas & Seattle spluttered past an average Cardinals team, this will be close. Don't underestimate Seattle's homeground advantage. In the past 5 seasons Seattle, at home, are 34-6 (8-0, 7-1, 7-1, 5-3, 7-1). This season they are 3-1. It is extremely difficult to beat Seattle in Seattle, and you can expect no more than 2 losses by this team at home. Atlanta will face a much tougher defense than Dallas's average secondary.

I was thinking about what you asked me about Cleveland taking a Quarterback in the 2018 NFL draft. To me, I could be wrong it makes more sense to trade which will undoubtably be the number one pick of the draft with another team who is willing to give their first, second, and maybe a veteran player for the pick which is without question going to be a future franchise quarterback. I see Cleveland in the same position as Dallas were in the 1989 season, one player does not help them, they need to build the team up in several areas and trading that number one pick for several high picks would help do it. Like you pointed out Cleveland have several quarterbacks which already which they have been developing and don't need another one unless of course he's the guaranteed next Tom Brady in which case that's another story.

What Cleveland need is to find a team that has a coach like Mike Ditka who traded his entire 1999 draft to Washington to ensure New Orleans got the number five pick in the draft so they could use it on running back Ricky Williams. I doubt a deal like that will ever happen again though.

That's interesting about trading the picks. If I were Cleveland I'd trade their #7 pick (received from Houston) to San Francisco in exchange for Garoppolo, but keep their #1 or #2 pick for perhaps a running back. CJ Beathard has been tried under a woeful o-line and hasn't been terrible. Garoppolo played 1.5 games in New England. If I were at SF I'd trade him away & get the #7 pick from Cleveland in a heartbeat, and draft some o-line players so that CJ doesn't get killed mid-game.

I'm still wondering where Kirk Cousins will go if he leaves. Clearly San Francisco are ruled out. I don't know why he'd want to go to Miami the way that team is performing lately. I know you've suggested New York Jets, but why not Denver? A few seasons ago that defense carried them through into a SB to upset the 17-1 Panthers (beating New England along the way). That defense doesn't seem much different personnel wise, so with Cousins at the helm (clearly better than Seimian, Osweiler, & Lynch) they could be back in playoffs. NY Giants & Arizona are candidates too, but they are both awful.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 15th 2017 »

That is a possibility Matt, the Redskins can't afford to keep him at Washington for a third consecutive year under the franchise tag so unless they come up with some kind of deal Cousins will be going when free agency opens next off-season.

San Francisco is unlikely now with the arrival of Grappolo, Cleveland is a graveyard, I can't see Cousins wanting to go there and besides the Browns are grooming Kizer and will want to focus on strengthening the rest of the team. That leaves NY Jets, Miami, and Denver. Out of the three I think you may be right and that is the better fit for Cousins.

Having a decent quaterback at the helm may invigorate the Broncos who are not as bad as their current record would suggest because like you say they are only a couple of season removed from winning the Super Bowl. If I had pick the most likely scenario for Cousins I would say it would be leaving Washington and going to Denver who will offer him a contract similar to Matthew Staffords for his services.

Steelers
Bears
Browns
Ravens
Texans
Dolphins
Rams
Chiefs
Saints
Chargers
Broncos
Patriots
Cowboys
Falcons

My Week 11 Predictions: (This Season: 87-59[59.6%]) (Last Week: 9-5) (This Week: 9-5)

Pittsburgh 28-14 over Tennessee
Detroit 26-20 over Chicago
Jacksonville 29-10 over Cleveland
Green Bay 24-20 over Baltimore
Arizona 27-19 over Houston
Miami 35-10 over Tampa Bay
Minnesota 27-26 over Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City 33-17 over New York Giants
New Orleans 34-30 over Washington
Los Angeles Chargers 27-13 over Buffalo
Cincinnati 27-24 over Denver in overtime
New England 24-23 over Oakland
Philadelphia 34-29 over Dallas
Seattle 26-19 over Atlanta

Got some bold predictions here. I feel homeground advantage, and the fact Green Bay won last week, while Joe Flacco is a mess, will be enough for the upset. I also think Houston are an abysmal team without Watson, and will lose to Arizona, who challenged Seattle the week before. Tom Savage is also a mess. Then Miami will blow Tampa Bay out of the water since they have a habit of playing well after a thrashing. However the next week they will get thrashed again. Minnesota v LA Rams is a 50/50, so I went with the home team. With official news of Tyrod Taylor's benching, I concede Buffalo's season is over & LA Chargers will keep their season alive with a dominant win. Then I have Cincinnati just prevailing against Denver in overtime, on the basis that Brock Osweiler is playing for Denver, & that Cincy almost beat the 6-3 Titans. I think Philly will be able to exploit Dallas's injuries/suspensions and win in a tight match. And Seattle's elite home record will be enough against Atlanta.

And Warrior...Cleveland over Jacksonville??? I admit if we were in 2016 I'd agree it would be possible, but this is a completely different Jags team. Unless it's a random upset pick out of hope like me with Cincy v Jags.
And Chicago over Detroit? Yes homefield advantage gives them a slight chance, but they just lost, at home, to Green Bay by 7 points. This rests solely on whether the same old Lions turn up or not. If they do, sadly you may be right.

And Dennis, it would be sad to see Washington let Cousins go. Without him they are a 4-12 team every year. Their backup QBs don't look reliable. If they did let him go, they'd have to go after another QB. Maybe the likes of:
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Jay Cutler Jk
AJ McCarron
CJ Beathard
Andrew Luck

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 20th 2017 »

It?s Cleveland only game they can win imo. I think that may be just enough for them to win. Plus, the Jags still aren?t that good. One bad day, and Cleveland could steal one.

Bears more or the less the same, especially since Lions are so hot or so cold. Plus, in division rivalry. Upset.

Lol, Matt if they are the only quarterbacks available if Cousins decides to go then the Redskins are in severe trouble as none of them even approaches elite status, they're all backup quarterbacks at best. If Cousins goes I am more convinced than ever the Redskins will start trading draft picks to move up the pecking order and snag one of those highly touted quarterbacks that will be in the 2018 draft. The way I look at it is there are five quarterbacks in that draft that have a chance of developing into an elite player which Washington can build a team around. The Redksins have the offensive line and and defense in place, the problem is the skill positions like wide reciever and running back so if they did that they have a chance of reaching the playoffs in a couple of years. Know Redskins management and the screw ups they done in the past there's no telling what they will do, I bet they don't know themselves. The more I think about it the more I can see Cousins playing for the Broncos, the sad fact is Washington just can't afford to keep him because they didn't give him a contract initially three years ago.

I agree with your choices for this week Matt, except I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Cousins lights up the New Orlean saints in an upset victory. LA Rams I think will defeat Minnesota by throwing touchdowns through the air. Miami are finished, nobody on that team will risk injuring themselves on a lost season and they will probable get defeated. Seattle are tough to beat at home but I think Atlanta will be confident after last weeks performance and blow the Seahawks away in their own backyard.

Tampa Bay are in exactly the same position as Miami; they have no reason to win really. I admit my 'thrashing' tip was going out on a limb but I think they'll at least win. If Washington can get their running game going (somehow) or stop NO's, they are in for a 45/55 chance. I can easily see LA Rams winning; was just homefield advantage that decided my tip. But like I say, don't underestimate Seattle playing at home. Away from home they are a mediocre team, but at home they are elite; a bit like Pittsburgh. The fact that Washington won there by a fluke (and only a 17-14 win) says Seattle really should be 4-0 at home to go with impressive results there in recent seasons. Just remember a fortnight ago we were both commenting about how Atlanta were finished. Beating an awful Cowboys team, at home, doesn't change a huge amount.

Yep I agree Washington should trade up, but there will be several other teams trying the same thing & it may be too hard. LA Chargers may try it. Washington may. Miami may. NY Jets may. Denver may. Arizona may. Baltimore probably will. Buffalo may try. Cleveland may take a QB early. SF may take one early. NY Giants will take one early. To me, there will be a lot of teams trying to snag a young QB from this season's crop, but there won't be enough for everyone. Arizona have to try. Baltimore have to try. Unless teams trade for any of the 5 QBs I mentioned, there will be some clubs in dire circumstances.

But to end, it's harsh to call Andrew Luck a backup QB at best.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 16th 2017 »

Well. Pittsburgh destroyed Tennessee 40-17. Mariota threw 4 interceptions. Who knows how this Steelers team was on the cusp of losing to the 3-6 Colts only 5 days ago.

But to end, it's harsh to call Andrew Luck a backup QB at best.

Before his injury Andrew Luck without doubt was one of the five best Quarterbacks in the league but now with his injury who knows. Last I heard he was off to europe to try and get his shoulder fixed which has been 'broken' for the last two years. It reminds me of the Peyton Manning scenario before he went to Denver, he came back from surgery but was nowhere near the quarterback that terrorised the NFL during regular seasons. I think this will happen to Andrew Luck, he'll end up being an expensive back-up somewhere.

Pittsburgh beat Tennessee, that was expected, I don't think Tennessee are as good as their record suggests. I have a feeling Pittsburgh will get into the playoffs and look good at home until they play the Patriots at Foxborough where their season ends in a resounding beating. I wish that game could be played at Heinz Field where the Steelers are a lot better team.

Matt, I was studying the heralded crop of quarterbacks that are entering the 2018 draft next year and to be honest I can see why San Francisco went for Grapollo instead of picking one up in the draft where they would be in a strong position with a top three pick. Although the quarterbacks have impressive numbers when you look deeper into it you see it's not clear cut whether they will be able to adapt into the NFL system which is vastly different from what they are used to in college and on top of that the top seeds are playing terrible this year throwing interceptions because of bad calls and in some cases those quarterbacks are in leagues that have poor opposition so it makes you wonder how they would do in the pros.

I think in total there are seven quarterbacks that are projected to go in the first round and I will bet you now at least three of them will be busts. Knowing my luck the Redskins will pick one of the busts if they can't keep Cousins who now knowing what I know now looks like the better proposition, at least he's tried and tested in the NFL and gets 4,000 yards a season.

I get that the surgery may hinder his throwing, but even though Manning came back and was poorer, he was getting old, & I looked at stats of the 2013 season (Denver were SB losers, but averaged something like 37pts per game). They were seriously impressive. One game he threw for 7 touchdowns. If Luck can get to a team with a proper o-line, I think he can get back to his best as long as he doesn't rush his recovery.

Remember Pittsburgh's schedule? Pisss easy. They have a legitimate chance of getting the #1 seed. A minimum 12-4 record is to be expected. I think when Pittsburgh & New England play in the regular season that will decide who wins the #1 seed. If New England win it Pittsburgh are in trouble cause they are a mediocre team away from home.

In reality most of the QBs should do well in the NFL if they have been scouted. In recent times these have been some of the QBs taken early:
Trubisky - Could be anything
Mahomes - Untried
Watson - Looks to be a star once he returns
Goff - Improving by the week
Wentz - MVP candidate
Maroita - Solid starter
Winston - Solid starter
Obviously there will be letdowns, but to say at least 3/7 will be is a bit bold. It could happen yes, but if Washington play smart (unlikely) they should get a franchise QB if they want one.

Matt, the list below is first Round Quarterbacks from 2008. Just for fun go through the list and give each your personal grade. For example:
Hall of Fame Career (World Class in any era)
Pro Bowler (Pick Achieved Potential)
Solid Pro (Good Pick)
Second String Backup (Disappointing pick)
Bust (Wasted pick)

I think you will find the vast majority didn't live up to the pre-draft hype and are out of the NFL. There will also be some that the jury is still out on because they've just started their career.

Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Andrew Luck
Robert Griffin
Ryan Tannehill
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Jarod Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch

Matthew Stafford - Pro Bowler
Mark Sanchez - Second String Backup (although has performed well at times)
Matt Ryan - Pro Bowler
Joe Flacco - Solid Pro (at the time)
Josh Freeman - Never heard of him so I guess he didn't turn out good
Sam Bradford - Solid Pro (although is injured a lot)
Tim Tebow - Have only heard of the name; I know nothing of the way he played
Cam Newton - Pro Bowler
Jake Locker - Never heard of him
Blaine Gabbert - Second String Backup
Christian Ponder - Never heard of him.
Andrew Luck - Pro Bowler
Robert Griffin - Bust (but tbh he played well before his ACL tear)
Ryan Tannehill - Inbetween Solid Pro & Second String Backup
Brandon Weeden - Bust
EJ Manuel - Second String Backup
Blake Bortles - Inbetween Solid Pro & Second String Backup
Johnny Manziel - Bust
Teddy Bridgewater - Solid Pro
Jameis Winston - Solid Pro
Marcus Mariota - Solid Pro
Jarod Goff - Solid Pro
Carson Wentz - Pro Bowler (on track for it this season at least)
Paxton Lynch - Has played 1 game so he can't really be judged yet

Ok I agree there are quite a few bad ones. But what you'll see is that very recently the 1st round picks have been good ones. Yes out of this season's draft crop there will be some busts, but I'd say probably 2 or 3 of them go on to be Pro Bowlers, 2 or 3 as Solid Pro's or slightly less, and 2 who are Second Stringers or Busts. Cleveland will pick the Bust, so that leaves Washington with a 50/50 chance I'd say, to pick a future Pro Bowler, and a 5/6 chance to pick a Solid Starter. Sadly they will pick the Second Stringer though. Miami will get the Inbetween Solid Pro and Second Stringer one.

So in 9 years there have been 20 quarterbacks taken in the first round and only 5 of them have made the Pro Bowl. The only quarterbacks in recent memory in my opinion that have a shot at getting into the Hall of Fame are Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Bree's. This is what makes next years NFL draft so important, the 'experts' claim that in this draft is the best crop of quarterbacks since 1983 which produced 3 Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Dan Marino, John Elway, and Jim Kelly. Those 3 quarterbacks had a combined 11 Super Bowl appearances.

If Mitch Trubisky, the quarterback Chicago picked first in the 2017 draft was in the 2018 draft he would only be the eight ranked quarterback which would probably mean round 3-4, certainly not the first overall pick. I'm more excited about the 2018 NFL draft than I am about this years Super Bowl. I know that if Kirk Cousins leaves Washington and go to Denver which is looking more and more likely and Washington get one of the top three or four quarterbacks in the 2018 draft it could be the start of a new era in football for the Redskins.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Nov 19th 2017 »

Just food for thought, do you think it would be a good idea for Washington to move up draft spots for 2 draft picks in the first half of the first round? They could get a young QB, along with a young RB, while getting active in free agency and the trade period, and potentially create a playoff contending team which in a few years could contend for the SB. Moving up 2 draft picks (might not even be possible I admit) would cost nearly all later picks, but I'd say 2 above average picks are better than 1 above average & 5 mediocre. If they follow Jacksonville's blueprint & get several players through trading or FA they could fill some holes like WR, RB, or spots on the o-line or secondary that are weak. Jacksonville have gone from a 3-13 team flailing to a currently 6-3 team (with the Browns up next) destined for a playoffs birth.

Since you know more about the weaknesses of Washington, if they had access to Cleveland's draft picks (currently #1 and #7) who would you pick using those? Would the #1 be a QB, or perhaps the #7? If it's 7, what would you use the #1 on? Last season Cleveland & San Francisco used their #1 and #3 picks respectively on defensive players, missing out on Deshaun Watson, Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Juju Smith, & other offensive players that look(ed) good this season. Generally it's better to build a team and then get your QB in, but I don't think the top teams (draft wise) can afford to pass up these QBs.