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Here's my February mock draft, apparently Miami are not so hot on Tua. He met with their management and at no point did they tell him he was their man. Tua came away feeling that they were not that interested. It does seem risky drafting a fragile quarterback and having no decent offensive linemen to protect him so I've got the Dolphins taking Andrew Thomas and Josh Jones this year in the first round in preparation for when they do get their quarterback of the future. I've got the Dolphins taking Tua with their 18th pick if he is still around, I have a feeling the guy will drop just like Aaron Rogers did the year he was drafted. Great college quarterback but gets injured too easily, someone needs to be brave to take him - he could be a superstar or a bust. I've seen plenty of highly touted quarterbacks over the years who simply couldn't get the job done in the NFL for one reason or another, in Tua's case it's him being prone to injury which is the question mark.
Cincinatti - Joe Burrow Washington - Chase Young Detroit - Isiah Simmons N.Y. Giants (Colts) - Jordan Love Dolphin - Andrew Thomas Chargers - Jedrick Wills Carolina - Jeff Okudah Jacksonville (Eagles) - Jerry Juedy Cleveland - Tristin Wirfs Jets - Ceedee Lamb Raiders - Jaivon Kinlaw Colts (Giants) - Merki Beckton Tampa (Packers) - Henry Ruggs III Broncos - Justin Jefferson Atlanta - Kristin Fulton Dallas - Grant Delpit Miami - Tua Tagovailoa Raiders - Kenneth Murray Eagles (Jacksonville) - AJ Espenesa Buffalo - Tee Higgins Patriots - Jake Fromm Saints - Patrick Queen Vikings - Trevon Diggs Miami - Josh Jones Seattle - Zack Baun Baltimore - Tyler Bladaez Tampa Bay - K'Lavon Chaisson 49rs - Xavier McKinney Chiefs - Willie Gay
Let me know if you can access it. I had problems with publishing the mock. It says it is not published, yet when I click on it it says it is published.
I didn't read any of your mocks before doing mine, so that I wasn't influenced.
EDIT - Warrior I didn't realise we were doing no trades. I thought it was just recommended not to. I only did one (Miami to #3).
« Last edited by Matt77 on Mar 3rd 2020 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
There's no need to predict trades since we decided to give a point for correct team or slot number.
That said, here are my thoughts on y'all's Mocks...
Dennis' Mock: 1) Too much craziness. No predicting trades for this reason. lol
2) I think some team might pull the plug on Jordan Love, but he won't be the second QB off the board. Tua will be the second QB chosen, unless the Bengals decide to go with him over Burrow. Both Burrow and Tua are going Top 5.
3) No way Detriot goes with Simmons over Brown and Okudah. Simmons is Top 10, but not Top 3.
4) Miami is getting a QB with their first pick. Thomas isn't even the Top Rated OL anymore.
5) Fromm will be lucky to be a 2nd Rounder after his horrible combine.
6) Five of your final six selections are predicted by most to be Day 2 Players.
Outside of that, besides all the trades, things could fall that way.
Matt's Mock: 1) I can't see the Giants passing on Okudah for Simmons, especially since he'll be a LB in the Pros. They need help in their secondary soooooooo bad.
2) I think the Jags would go with Jeudy or Lamb before an O-Lineman, but I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.
3) I knew you were going to throw Jordan Love in your Mock, I just didn't know where. I don't know if the Colts would be a good fit for him, but I guess it's as good as anywhere.
4) CB Henderson is going Top 20 after the Combine. Give him to the Raiders at #19.
5) I don't see the Jags adding another Edge Rushers simply because they did so in last year's draft.
6) No love for WR CLaypool after his amazing combine?
7) You slotting Epenesa to the Pats will destine them getting him. Thanks. ;_;
8) Much like Dennis, a handful of your later picks are more of Day 2 players.
All in all though, I think you're starting to get more informed on the prospects. Gonna make it interesting. ;)
I was going to get there eventually Warrior. I've been doing 3 hours of uni work ;_;
All of your feedback is understandable, reasonable, and logical. A few picks I'm sure will be iffy because I did my mock in one go. Like Jacksonville going edge rusher. In reality I should've gone with a CB (Henderson), but my choice is based on top remaining prospect if I am in doubt or rushing (unless it's a position they REALLY don't need). I will leave Chaisson because adding him will give Jacksonville 2 dangerous edge rushers and create a fear-factor to their d-line. I went Simmons for NY Giants because I've read on a lot of websites that Simmons had a crazy good combine and that his stocks have risen even further. Disregarding positions, I rate him higher than Okudah. Again CB is more of a need, but I went with an impact player instead. I only decided today that I would put Love in lol. I was NOT a fan of his at all until his combine results. His turnover numbers in college were horrendous. But I've read several mocks (at least 5) that have Indy drafting him. Like I explained in the SF write-up, Henderson is much better than pick 31, it's just that I had other teams drafting in different positions. I kept looking and trying to get him in earlier. Had I payed more attention I probably would've put him in at #20. I've never heard of the name Claypool lol. I don't know enough prospects in reality. Only the top 35 or so listed on CBS's draft prospect list. It felt like an NE move. I actually had Epenesa sliding out of the 1st round (everywhere I read says Epenesa's combine was horrible), but NE know how to recognise talent unfortunately. I tend to struggle after about pick 23-ish in all my mocks. It becomes hard to judge who is on the rise and who isn't. I'll score badly in that section, apart from Swift to Miami ;)
Feedback on your mock Dennis:
- Like Warrior said there's a lot of craziness. You can keep the trades if you want, but it makes it harder to score points the more you do. That's why I only picked one trade - Love's stocks have risen, but not enough to go ahead of Tua and Herbert. He's a boom or bust prospect (I think bust) - You forgot to add in Arizona at pick 8 and Jacksonville at pick 20 - You forgot to write Tampa Bay at #29 as a trade with Tennessee - Like Warrior said, Fromm isn't a 1st rounder. He is awful. A backup QB at best. I hope you're right and New England draft him... - Where is Derrick Brown - DT? - Your picks in the lower part of the draft are much better than mine, since you are factoring in prospects that are on the rise and/or had a good combine
Feedback on your mock Warrior:
- Derrick Brown is quality, but he's a tad too high. DT isn't a need either - In your scenario, Carolina HAVE to draft Simmons. LB is a slight need, Simmons is one of the best players in the draft, and OL isn't a need - Epenesa shouldn't be at #16 until his pro day - Buffalo HAVE to draft a WR, even if they are a slight reach. Remember your write-up on Buffalo in Jan? I'm pretty sure you said something along the lines of 'I can't even name any of their WRs apart from Beasely' - Apart from those points, everything was common sense and intelligent. Like with Dennis, you did much better than me with picking the lower order players.
Good work guys. Remember if you want to make any minor changes, you have until March 7. After that, the 3rd mock will be due by March 31, however I may push it back by a week.
« Last edited by Matt77 on Mar 3rd 2020 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
1) Brown is best player available for the Lions. I know he's not the biggest need, but his combine was awesome for a guy his size. Plus, the Lions have gone best available in prior drafts, so I think the trend has a chance to continue. But yeah, Okudah makes more sense need-wise.
2) I've had Simmons going to the Panthers for a while, but I don't think OL is out of the question. If they are going to roll with Cam, they might look to upgrade his protection so he doesn't keep getting hit so much.
3) Don't believe those other sites about AJ. Bad combine? Yes, but everyone thought he wouldn't put up good numbers. He's incredibly strong, and he has the best hands in all the draft. Read This.
4) I know Buffalo needs a WR, but this draft class is deep enough to to get a good one on DAY 2. Plus, there are a few in Free Agency. My thought process was the Bills take Matos before the Pats could. Goota avoid the Pats getting better, even though not an immediate need.
5) I just know more prospects, especially after watching the entire combine. lol
Might not even need to wait until the end of March. Most of Free Agency should be over by the 21st. lol But end of March plays it safe. ;)
That point about o-line for Carolina is a good one. How did I forget? My philosophy is that teams with a QB who has an injury history should have elite o-lines. Hence with my Miami picks I had no o-linemen because hopefully Tua will play 0 games this season.
With my next mock I'll have to take into account what the teams will do on Day 2. Your Buffalo point is a good one. I think because with this mock I made so many changes and mad to make new write-ups, that I rushed it a bit because I wanted it done.
And just clarifying, with the points tallying, we can't get 2pts can we? What I mean is that if someone picks Okudah to Detroit at pick 5, they don't get 1pt for Detroit and 1pt for pick 5 do they? It represents 1 point only, as long as it is either or both of team and draft pick, right?
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Both your drafts look good, I can't argue with any of your selections, you've both put a lot of thought into them. The way I look at it is that after pick 2 it will become a crap shoot. In a couple of weeks time everything will shift again once veterans have been signed up and various trades have taken place. I think Warrior13 is probably right, Brady will see out his time in New England, this I think will be his retirement year as he sees limited play there as the Patriots prepare their quarterback of the future to take over.
Tua's stock is falling, teams are not so keen now to draft him, too many questions about his health. It's going to be a brave team that picks him and a brave team that passes on him. Dolphins seem to be leaning towards Jordan Love, I personally would take a chance on Tua. Experts were saying not too long ago he is the best passer to ever come out of the college ranks. Has to be worth a gamble, especially with all the draft capital the Dolphins have.
The defining factor in Tua's value will be how well he recovers from his injury. Initial reports show that his hip has fully healed and is as good as doctors could've hoped for. It will be interesting what he does at his pro day and whether he does any drills. Not throwing at all will hurt his stocks. That's why about a month ago I kept going on about how no team should trade up for an injury-prone QB. I made an exception for Miami because Warrior said we wouldn't have to give up a lot. However the more I read, the more likely it is that we will have to give up picks 5, 26, 39 & 70 to move up to 3. One article I read even said Miami may have to give up picks 5, 18, 26, 39 & 56! (hopefully very unlikely)
Miami and Love???!?! God, I hope not. That would be a horrendous decision. Where did you read that? Jordan Love is a massive boom or bust prospect.
I'm going to post a strengths/weaknesses thing about the top 6 QB prospects in the Discussion thread. I've done this with the 2018 and 2019 QB prospects too in the past. It's a good way to evaluate all the prospects in the one post.
« Last edited by Matt77 on Mar 4th 2020 »
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Lol, I don't know what you're reading Matt but from what I'm reading points to Tua still being around at pick 5. A healthy Tua is top 3 pick all day long but he Tua we are talking about here has an asterisk next to his name, he's basically 'damaged goods'. I can't see no team giving up two first round picks for him let alone three unless he turns up for his pro day and impresses the hell out of everyone which I don't think he will as he is still recovering and will not want to push it. I still think the danger team are the Raiders as far as stopping Tua falling to the Dolphins because of their draft capital and wanting to start fresh in Las Vegas with a new franchise face.
I've seen highly touted quarterbacks fall twice in the draft since I've been following the NFL, the first time was Dan Marino and a drugs rumour that was going around and second was Aaron Rogers who had an injury concern at the time which everyone has now forgotten about.
The quote from the doctor who is looking after Tua was:
'His hip is as good as we could have hoped for'
Reading between the lines, that to me says it's damaged but it's fixed as best as it could have been under the circumstances. I think the injury issues will scare teams off and he will still be about pick 5. Rumour has it that if the Dolphins deem Tua's injuries to much of a risk they will target Jordan Love who they think is the third best quarterback in the draft. The Dolphins and Lions are still in talks about a possible switch. Miami's pick 5 in the first round and a round 2 pick I think would be a fair trade considering the circumstances for Tua, anything more I think is too risky and the team could get better value looking elsewhere.
Tua is too much of a talent to fall to pick 5. If Miami don't want to trade with Detroit, Las Vegas will stupidly jump in and replace an injury-prone, but proven NFL starter with an injury-prone rookie QB. Teams will look at the huge upside Tua brings and be willing to take a chance, even if it's a reckless trade decision. Similar to how I think Indy will recklessly draft Jordan Love at pick 13, except they wouldn't have to give up two 1st round picks like Las Vegas would.
I think the media have influenced you too much. This is what they try and do (create chaos). Jordan Love isn't going to overtake Tua unless something goes horribly wrong. If you look at the write-up I found on NFL.com (I re-posted it here, here), you can read that Love regressed big time from 2018 to 2019 and threw a tonne of INTs, and he also struggles with deep ball accuracy. If he found the transition into his college junior year hard, imagine how he'll find the NFL.
However, Herbert is the one we should be watching. He had a great combine like Love did, but his final college season was very good. The fact he stayed for his senior year also helps since he had an extra year of college football to refine his game. To me he is by far the safest QB. Burrow, Tua, and Love all carry their risks. Again, that write-up I posted explains some good points.
Actually, I'll just post it here too. I wanted it posted in the other thread so I can find it after the draft and during next season.
8 is the perfect prospect, and 5 is a poor/average psoepect
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Matt: Yes, just one point. No doubling up if you get the correct pick number and selection.
Dennis: Unless no one jumps the Dolphins, they will select Tua at #5. Miami could still move up into the Top 3 to nab Tua. They are going to do everything they can to get Tua, outside of giving up any of their 1st Rounders. They are willing to give up #5, #39 and #70. Not bad for the Lions to fall back two spots and possibly still have their choice of Brown, Okudah and Simmons (assuming the Giants go with what most believe will be an OL).
I don't think it matters Matt, as soon as they enter the pros their respective teams will place them where they want them to slot in. Lots of offensive and defensive linemen can play two or three positions if called upon.
Still hearing noise that the Redskins may take Tua, they told him to his face they are interested in taking him. Pulling my hair out at the thought of passing Chase Young, the guy could be a dominant force on defense for the next ten years. Dan Snieder, the owner of the Redksins personally picked Dwayne Haskins against Jay Grudens wishes last year so it is unlikely he will admit to his mistake and allow the Redskins to take another quarterback with their first pick. That's what I'm hoping anyway.
It's a huge draft for both Washington and Miami. The common sense decisions are to pick Young and Tua respectively. If either manages to screw this up, the franchise(s) may not recover in a long time.
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
Let's hope this is what happens, Chase Young will be there at pick 2 and Miami just need to hold their nerve and Tua will be there at pick 5. Nobody is going to give up a lot of capital on a damaged quarterback. If I were Miami I'd sit tight and if Tua is there, great, if not get best offensive linemen in the draft with the top two picks and go all out for Trevor Lawrence next year.
The problem for Miami is that if they want Trevor Lawrence, they're going to have to give away most of their 2021 picks. In that scenario Miami will be able to use picks 5, 18, 26, 39, 58, 70, and possible 4th round compensatory picks to strengthen the team, meaning a mediocre 8-8 campaign is likely imo. To trade from lets say pick 17 all the way up to pick 1, would likely cost Miami two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks in 2021. I would hate to see all that draft capital go.
Miami's plan should be Tua, and if they can't get him then take Herbert. Miami have to finally take a QB.
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~
You're probably right Matt, it's the sensible route.
If I was in charge I'd get all the pieces of the puzzle in place with the draft capital and money Miami has available in this draft and then aggressively go after Trevor Lawrence next year, paying the two number 1 picks to get him. I'd feel a lot better with a healthy quarterback than a banged up one. Taking Tua is like betting on an injured greyhound that could go lame at any moment during the race.
Matt: It changes everything. The Panthers aren't going to double up on O-Line unless they're really invest in Cam for the long term. Wirfs can play Guard, but I can't see them drafting him because of this trade. He'll also have to make it past the Giants, and everyone seems to be putting Wirfs to G-Men.
Honestly, if one of us can correctly pick Miami's three 1st Rounder Selections, that person would probably win our competition. I think I got like seven or eight correct last year with the same point structure, and three would be almost half of that. If you're looking to win, you really just have to focus of the Phins, Jags, and Raiders. If someone can do the impossible and get those seven right, it's game over. lol
It's literally a lottery Warrior13, none of our mock drafts are going to be even 80% correct which is what makes it exciting. We all hope out team selects certain players but as the draft progresses and players get taken off the board our mocks become more out of sync. I just want the Redskins to draft Chase Young, after that I don't really care who they take. You and Matt have a lot more interest vested in this draft as the Dolphins will be doing all sorts of business with their capital. If they get it right they could potentially becme contenders in a couple of years time, they didn't do too bad the second half of last year with what they had, which was basically very little.
I can't see Tua in a Dolphins uniform for some reason, I see Justin Herbert being a Dolphin. Tua I thnink will go to Carolina while they decide what to do with Cam Newton. Carolina will do a deal with Detroit at pick 3, the guy is perfect for the scheme they run in Carolina and they can redshirt Tua for a year so he starts his NFL career fully healthy (Newton has one year left on his current contract with the Panters). Carolina also has a history of trading up in the draft. Miami will be reluctant to give up their first round picks.
Hearing rumours that the Redskins may be going after Cam Newton, apparently Ron Rivera loves the guy from his tenure coaching the Panthers. I hope that doesn't happen otherwise the liklihood of Tua becoming a Panther increases significantly.
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