The GOP will end up fracturing or even splitting completely in two by 2012 if the more moderate Republicans can't come together with the Tea Partiers. Neither the regular GOP or the Tea Party would have enough votes to stop Obama. But if they worked together they could very well beat him; or at least give him a serious run for his money.
But I don't think there is much chance of the regular & Tea Party wings of the GOP coming together. The moderate Republicans would lose their base & a lot of Independents if they shifted too far right & the Tea Party would lose the far right vote if they shift too far toward the middle. The only kind of candidate that could potentially unite the GOP would be one that's very far right on cultural issues & more toward the middle on the economy. Even then they'd run the risk of not satisfying everybody. And usually those two characteristics don't go together for some reason.
Honestly, I believe by then we could very well have a three-way race between Obama, the GOP, and the Tea Party which would become its own separate party by then. If that happens, then anybody that could possibly run against Obama would be impotent. Unless there's some kind of x-factor involved by then. We could also have an Independent candidate that could serve as a threat.
The political system is very fractured right now, so I wouldn't even throw out the possibility of a four-way race at this time. It would be Obama, the GOP, Tea Party, and an Independent candidate (Donald Trump, Michael Bloomberg, etc.) That could potentially split the vote perilously close to a tie.
And the idea of another Democrat running against Obama has been kicked around as well, so that could also be a possibility. Then there could be a five-way or even higher race. Although this seems unlikely right now, you never know what may happen between now & then. For all we know we could see a far left party emerge to counter the other three parties.
Basically, what I'm saying here is that there could be a very fractured race in 2012, split between three, four, or possibly even five or more candidates.
And honestly, I keep seeing a four party system in the near future of American politics. The Tea Party, GOP, Democrats, and then a far left party that would rise out of frustration with the Democrats much the same way the Tea Party came about. It could be four separate parties or two parties with different wings within them.
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