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US Election 2020 - Biden has seemingly won

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Matt77 Posted: 06:56 Oct27 2020 Post ID: 3452659
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I swear someone else made an election thread, but I can't find it. So here we are.

This isn't asking which candidate you prefer. This is asking who you THINK will win. I want Biden to win, but think Trump will narrowly win. And why is it that you think that specific candidate will win?

Regardless of the outcome, there are going to be a lot of angry people.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 7th 2020 »

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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

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steelersrock01 Posted: 10:55 Oct27 2020 Post ID: 3452660
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I think Biden will win this time around, narrowly. I think voter turnout will be higher this year with every company pushing voting so hard, mostly to young people on social media that if they vote at all will vote Democrat.

I personally have no real preference, which makes me lucky I guess. To be honest the president has next to no affect on me personally. My worry with Biden is that his health will fade and that he'll be used as a puppet for more radical members of the party. I actually approve of a public healthcare option but disapprove generally of plans like student loan forgiveness (why should anyone pay any debt?) as I feel it discourages personal responsibility and doesn't attack the root of the problem. I also don't feel his climate plan is realistic and think that too much of the blame for the climate crisis is placed on countries like the US and the western European nations rather than countries like India and China. I'm also frustrated with both parties opposition to nuclear energy. The issue is always laid at the feet of individuals when the real issue is mega corporations - plastic straws are not what's killing the environment.

I'm generally in favor of "small government", fiscally. As much as that's a thing anymore. Socially I'm live and let live. Like I said I'm lucky enough where the main issues don't affect me personally. I don't think Trump is the evil boogeyman many say he is. I think he says things he shouldn't sometimes, but I don't think he's evil. I think Biden is a nice enough old man who if he becomes president will be a puppet of his party, and I worry that he will completely shut down the country and demoralize citizens. A lot of places here have half-opened and shutting them down again will be ruinous.

I also think Trump has done major good for peace in the Middle East wrt Israel and the UAE and a less pro-Israel president could destabilize the region, but that's a matter of personal opinion - it is probably a positive for most people. I believe everything with Russia is a huge nothing burger, and generally think it's a better idea to keep relations open with countries like Russia and North Korea than it would be to cut them off because they are the "bad guys".

At the end of the day both candidates are mostly the same with slight differences in policy. Nothing much is going to change either way.

« Last edited by steelersrock01 on Oct 27th 2020 »
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Warrior13 Posted: 20:31 Oct27 2020 Post ID: 3452663
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Similar to 2016. Trump close victory, but turns out over 300 Electoral. A LOT of momentum towards Trump lately, Biden being kept away so he doesn't screw up more.

I'm personally leaning a little towards Trump, but that's because my conscience doesn't think it can vote for a person for the most important job in the world that has dementia.

Like I said, I take personalities out of the equation. I boil it down to who I think will do the best job. Well, more like the person who won't seriously screw things up. Trump has shown the world won't blow up if he's holding office. Not the prettiest leadership, but as my high school football coach use to say: It's better to win ugly than lose pretty. Biden has thrown out some pretty outlandish stuff, and has since tried to pull back on (if anyone is foolish enough to believe it).

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Oct 27th 2020 »
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Warrior13 Posted: 08:20 Nov03 2020 Post ID: 3452707
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Even though the results won't likely be official unless a landslide either way, today is finally the day. Will Biden win as most polls show? Or is there another Trump upset brewing?

Officially, Biden is up 5 Votes, as all of those in that small Maine town voted for him (as they usually do with the democratic candidate). Trump had 14 rallies in the last seventy-two hours, fighting for every last vote. Biden is campaigning today, and some see that as nervousness of the democrats part.

I guess we'll see.
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steelersrock01 Posted: 09:21 Nov03 2020 Post ID: 3452709
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Regardless of your politics, it's certainly the most exciting election I've been a part of.
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Warrior13 Posted: 09:58 Nov03 2020 Post ID: 3452711
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I agree in the sense you don't know what's going to happen. Obama was clearly going to win in 2012, and Clinton by all accounts in 2016 (it got interesting the night of the election). It's going to be close this time around, and you don't know which way it's going to fall.

I saw something this morning that only 55% of Democrats voted early while only 30% of Republicans did. That means there's only 45% Registered Democrats left, while 70% of Registered Republicans. Depending on how big the Democrat's lead currently is with Early Voting and Mail In, that could be key. I have no idea the state breakdown of those percentages.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Nov 3rd 2020 »
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steelersrock01 Posted: 13:08 Nov03 2020 Post ID: 3452713
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I don't think we'll be seeing accurate numbers until the weekend sadly.
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Warrior13 Posted: 14:15 Nov03 2020 Post ID: 3452715
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Depends what rolls in tonight. If a landslide, it could be over quicker.
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Matt77 Posted: 00:08 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452719
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Votes are still being counted, however there are large proportions of the remaining swing states which have been counted.

Based on what I can see, in the best-case realistic scenario, Biden will win 256 votes, and Trump would win 273. This is assuming that Biden hangs on to Arizona, wins Nevada, and comes back to win Michigan (unlikely). However, I don't see him winning Nevada or Michigan. That would put the final votes as 234 for Biden, and 295 for Trump. There just isn't enough opportunities for Biden to earn votes.

Donald Trump has unofficially won this election, despite the highest voter turnout in a century.

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Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

Credits to KingofCorn for the awesome avatar!
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Warrior13 Posted: 00:38 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452721
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Too close to call. Worst possible scenario. People gonna appeal.
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Matt77 Posted: 01:19 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452724
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Not really. Look at the swing states and the proportions of votes that have been counted. Biden has probably a 5% chance of winning this election, if that.

ViolinViolinViolin
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

Credits to KingofCorn for the awesome avatar!
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Warrior13 Posted: 02:22 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452727
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Many are saying the states remaining could have early votes still to count, which skew Biden. Way too close.
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Matt77 Posted: 02:50 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452728
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Biden's only hope is that some postal votes come in and turn things around in Georgia, Michigan, & North Carolina. But it's going to be tough. 94%, 77%, and 94% of votes respectively have been counted, and Trump is leading in all 3.

ViolinViolinViolin
~ Sometimes people change, but sometimes you just open your eyes & realise who they truly are ~

Warrior13 said:I realized Matt is the Chosen One of SC.

Credits to KingofCorn for the awesome avatar!
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Warrior13 Posted: 06:00 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452729
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Trump's going to have to thread the needle to get to 270 Electoral Votes. In all likelihood, Trump will take Alaska and Biden is looking like he'll get Wisconsin (which flipped early this morning) and Nevada. That would put Biden off by roughly 16 Electoral Votes to win. This means that Trump will need to take the remainders of Georgia (Trump up 2%), Michigan (Trump up 1.5%), North Carolina (Trump up 1.5%), and Pennsylvania (Trump up 12% but 1.4 million votes left).

Gonna come down to the wire. Let's say Trump takes Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, which would mean everything comes down to Pennsylvania as everyone originally thought it would. From everything I've read, there are just 1.4 million early votes left to be counted. Trump has a 700K lead in votes in PA. Roughly 60-65% of early votes were skewed toward Biden. If you take 65% of 1.4 mil, that's roughly 900K votes, which would put Biden theoretically in the lead. However, the leftover 35% would equal roughly another 600k for Trump, which would give him a net of 400k. If 1.4 million votes are left in PA - again, assuming Trump ultimately wins MI, NC, GE, & AK and Biden wins NV & WI - Biden would have to take roughly 80% of them. Not sure that's possible since I'm hearing most of the counties in PA left to vote are Pro-Trump outside Philly.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Nov 4th 2020 »
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Warrior13 Posted: 07:00 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452731
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Biden up .3% in Wisconsin. 99% Reporting.

Trump up .3% in Michigan. 90% Reporting.

Trump now up only 10% in Pennsylvania.

Gonna be razor thin either way.
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Warrior13 Posted: 08:19 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452732
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Looking like Biden now in both Wisconsin and Michigan. If that happens, Trump will somehow have to flip Nevada. Otherwise, Biden wins.
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steelersrock01 Posted: 10:58 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452733
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It'll get contested and there'll be recounts and the Supreme Court will get involved. Gonna be a mess.
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Warrior13 Posted: 12:00 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452735
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Completely agree.
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Warrior13 Posted: 13:05 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452736
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Recount coming to Wisconsin. Michigan lawsuit filed. Pennsylvania (Philly) about to be challenged.

Definitely looking like it will end up in Supreme Court.
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steelersrock01 Posted: 17:07 Nov04 2020 Post ID: 3452737
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Trump still has a path to victory if he wins PA and AZ, not totally out of the question. Also, the voter turnout in Wisconsin is fishy - 87% turnout when the previous high was only 73%, and surrounding states are hovering in the mid 70s? That's an awful lot of Milwaukee mail-ins...

Also very sketchy that they stopped counting last night and then at 4am added a huge stack of Biden votes.
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