NFL - Discussion & Tipping Thread

Nah, I watched the game. After Denver tied it at 7-7, they were in control for the remainder of the game until the 4th Quarter. Of course, they let the Browns back in the game, just like Houston did with the Jets. Denver lost that game.

Dallas got blown out 23-0 by the Colts!? What happened there, Dallas have been looking like Super Bowl contenders recently. Didn?t see Washington winning, looks like they are back in the race for the NFC East title. 9-7 would be enough to win it if Dallas slip up again.

If Pittsburgh beat the Patriots I have a chance to go one game ahead of Matt with two games remaining.

Gawd... Horrible week for me...

Had originally picked Colts and Pitt but changed. Dang.

Gonna be interesting though!

Lol, I originally picked Dallas, and you originally picked Indy, and we both switched. You'd need an epic choke to lose the competition, but if you have a bad week next week, you could invite Dennis to go for the hail mary and tip 5+ upsets.

But holy crap, that was great tipping from you Dennis. You've turned a 1 game deficit into a 1 game lead over me. Cleveland was brave, you held you ground with Tennessee, and Pittsburgh was insane!I have a battle now to avoid finishing last...

Atlanta woke up from a 0-7 deficit, to destroy Arizona 40-14.

Baltimore got a firm grip on the #6 seed, but they'll be disappointed with Pittsburgh's win. Tennessee's win also hurts. Lamar Jackson continues to do enough.

Buffalo won an ugly, meaningless game.

Chicago got revenge in Green Bay, as they broke Rodgers' no INT streak. The NFC North is clinched, and Green Bay are eliminated from playoff contention completely

Cincy won comfortably against the in-form Raiders, despite mediocre offensive numbers.

Indy...what??? I tipped them only because they were the home team. I thought Dallas were actually the better team. That is disgraceful by Dallas, and with Philly and Washington both having upset wins, it could be crucial.

Josh Johnson is clearly an upgrade from Mark Sanchez, and he played well enough I suppose. Even though it hurts their draft position, that is a great comeback win away from home. But then again, when the opposing QB passes for 57 yards and no touchdowns, you have to win. Boy oh boy, I was sooo wrong about Cody Kessler.......

Miami got slaughtered. The strange thing is after going down 0-21 at QT, they pulled to 17-21 and forced a Minnesota punt. The problem though, it that Minnesota went 20-0 from there on. Losing Frank Gore was supposed to hurt, but rookie RB Kalen Ballage rushed for 123 yards and a TD. I saw good things from him in preseason.

NY Giants layed an absolute egg, losing 0-17 to the hot and cold Titans. Tennessee are still very much in playoff contention, and right now are probably the favourites.

Seattle got th ????? What is it with this week and the favourites having absolute stinkers? Well, that's a 10 game losing streak vs Seattle snapped. Nick Mullens has shown he is essentially Beathard, but with that little extra. This is a seriously impressive win from him and SF, considering they were taken to overtime. Seattle better be careful though. Even though they have a 1% chance of missing playoffs, they'd want to not finish 8-8, otherwise they could be in trouble.

New England are gone. Done. Not in terms of winning games, but Superbowls. It's over. It has to be. New England teams of the past do not lose this fixture, ever. They are the #3 seed, and in order to get a 1st round bye, they need to win out, and have Houston lose one of @ Philly and vs Jacksonville.

LA Rams are in serious trouble now. Their #1 seed chances are finished unless New Orleans lose tomorrow, and their 1st week bye chances are in jeopardy. Outstanding win away from home by Philly. A far cry from their 7-48 loss @ New Orleans.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Dec 17th 2018 »

Philadelphia beat the Rams, sounds like the Rams have taken their foot of the pedal, that's two games straight they have now lost. I'm beginning to wonder how this will affect their momentum going into the playoffs. Not a good sign when a team does that, it shows complacency and arrogance which usually becomes the teams undoing as they are unable to crank things back up.

NFC East has now turned into a nightmare division with Philadelphia winning, I still expect the Cowboys to come through though, I've just got to hope Dak Prescotts game doesn't suddenly improve in which case the Redskins have a chance to sneak it if they win out.

If this competition is including the playoffs and Super Bowl there is a chance Warrior13 can be caught, I'm only four behind and Matt's one behind me. Another week with Warrior13 dropping 3 games and things get very interesting indeed.

Sadly you're 6 and margin behind, meaning you need 7 games. And remember in week 1 when we wanted playoffs included and Warrior didn't, so I said if Tennessee won, or lost by less than 4, playoffs would be included. Miami won that game 27-20, meaning playoffs aren't included with Warrior. 7 games in 2 weeks is your assignment...lol good luck.

For just us both, we can include playoffs in the final score. Warrior will still tip with us, but if he wins by week 17, he will remain the winner no matter what.

Washington have 0 chance. They were better off tanking and finishing 6-10. That win seriously hurts. For Washington to make it:
Dallas MUST go 0-2 in their remaining games vs Tampa Bay and @ NY Giants
Washington MUST go 2-0 @ Tennessee and vs Philly
Dallas will have the divisional record tiebreaker over Washington 4-1 to 2-3. There aren't enough divisional games left, so Dallas will always have this tiebreaker.

Washington need Philly to finish with an identical record to both Dallas and Washington. Then the common games tiebreaker will be used to decide the division. Assuming all teams finish 8-8 (Washington and Philly cannot both win out; they play each other):
Dallas: 4-4
Washington: 3-5
Philly: 3-5
The above assumes that Washington beat Philly. Therefore Washington can't win the division through tiebreakers.
If Philly beat Washington and lose to Houston, their common games record does not change. Therefore they can't win it on tiebreakers either.

So, as soon as Dallas win any game or Philly and Washington lose any game (one will lose in week 17), Dallas will sadly win the division.

Fair enough, congratulations Warrior13 you've won this year, I'm going to use this season as a learning curve and come back with a vengeance next year. I've thoroughly enjoyed the experience so far, it has put interest into each week of the season.

I'm still going to try and catch Warrior13 in the postseason. Can we make post season games count as two wins to give me and Matt half a chance of catching up? Six games and a margin which I knew nothing about when we started is a big handicap to overcome. If Matt and I can get within 2 points by the end of the season though we'll keep it as it is.

It's up to Warrior. Originally when I was first setting up this competition, I set the postseason as joker rounds (double points), but I changed it. It wouldn't be fair if I changed the rules just as he's about to win. So we'll wait for his response.

Like you, I was foolish in my tipping early on. Since the start of week 10, I am winning 52-51-51, but as you can tell we've all been very close. I need to use more logic and less 'gut feeling' picks. I've been having success ever since I changed my thinking. Basically I am tipping the way I would usually tip in AFL, and this season I was ranked inside the top 5% of tippers in that sport.

If we do this again (I hope so!), I genuinely think Warrior will have a battle on his hands. No doubt he'll do very well again, but I think we can keep up. If I tip more logically, and you get more info on the matchups before you tip, I see a realistic chance.

I totally agree with Matt, next year will be more competitive. I must admit I went into this season not knowing who the quarterback was on about half a dozen teams and early in the season not bothering to research them got me burned. I also got burned about four times picking an away team thinking it was the home team. And lastly I got burned on about six incredibly unlucky games where something strange happened. Add all those instances together I should be 10 points in front now instead of trying to hold off a young Aussie lad for second place and 6 points adrift of the winner.

Warrior13 won this year because he picked winners consistently throughout the season. Unfortunately once Matt and I had started getting a handle on things the competition was over.

I don't think race is over just yet. My cousin who was down 27 before last week, gained four games on me last week and another six games this week (he's currently 13-2 this week). I know he's still 17 Games Back, but, man, anything can clearly happen.

What do y'all think about the Texans/Eagles Game next week? If the Chiefs defeat the Seahawks - which I think they will since the Niners showed just how bad the Seahawks Pass Defense is - and the Eagles upset the Texans, Philadelphia will be right back in the Wild Card Race. I'm leaning towards the Eagles right now.

Next week looks pretty simple. There are maybe four or five games that look like toss ups (Texans/Eagles, Falcons/Panthers, Steelers/Saints, Chiefs/Seahawks), but that's about it. I wonder how teams like Denver will play next week. They aren't out just yet, but their last two losses have pretty much sealed that they won't be in the playoffs. I guess the bigger question lies in whether or not teams that are out will continue to be competitive or if they will simply be looking to better their draft status. The Packers, for example, come to mind, especially with Rodgers voicing that he wants to play.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Dec 17th 2018 »

Before Sunday night, I had Houston being about an 85% chance to win @ Philly. Now it changes to about 55%. They have much more to play for, and if they slip up just once, they WILL lose their 1st week bye. New England have HOME GAMES against NY Jets and Buffalo in some order... Then again, that logic of having more to play for failed for NE in the last 2 weeks.

The NFC playoff teams were decided 3 weeks ago. Minnesota showed they will not slip up in their demolition job of Miami, and they're not going to go 0-2. Seattle surely can't lose, at home, to Arizona.

If there is on thing I?ve learn?t this season is that none of the games are formalities regardless of how obvious they appear. Each week I do my selections and each week I look at them and think almost every one of them are obvious winners and every week I get about five wrong which leaves me wondering how did that happen. I don?t think the next couple of weeks will be any different.

Out of interest what is the most number of games one of has got correct in one week? I bet there was still two or three games that were incorrect. The next couple of weeks will be tricky as their will be teams that won?t be going full out, teams desperate for a win, and teams tanking it.

Saints last night managed to hold off a late rally from the Panthers to win the Monday night game. Pretty much ended Carolina?s playoff hopes. Earlier in the season the Panthers looked like they were going places, where did it go wrong for them?

In week 6 Warrior scored 13/15. In week 8 you scored 12/14. Meanwhile I've only scored 11/15 twice. From briefly looking at the highest placing people on the entire website, I have seen no-one score 16/16.

Cam Newton is playing with a badly injured shoulder. He injured it in week 9 @ Pittsburgh. Pre-injury Carolina was 6-2. Post-injury Carolina are 0-6. It's strange though, because his production and the offense's hasn't dipped too much. If anything McCaffery is having a better season than last year too. At times though, the defense has slipped up, but it's mainly the small things.

Carolina had some serious luck to start (Graham Gano kicked a 63-yard FG to beat the woeful Giants 33-31) (After trailing 0-17 a 3QT @ Philly, they somehow won 21-17). When 6-3, they missed a PAT and a FG, but scored a late TD to get back to 19-20 against the lowly Lions. But instead of kicking and going to OT, they missed the 2-point conversion. The next week, they were at home and leading Seattle 27-20. They allowed Russel Wilson to score a game-tying 37 yard TD on 4th and 3. Then after missing a FG, Carolina allowed Seattle to kick one themselves. The next week Newton threw 4INTs against the disgraceful Buccs D. And the week after that, their road issues came back again and they lost @ Cleveland.
tl;dr - Carolina were a smoke screen. Their mediocrity was well hidden by insane luck and a great start, but once the luck stopped, they were revealed.

New Orleans are near certainties to get the #1 seed. If they do so, starting from next week, they will play 4 consecutive home games on their way to a SB birth. And this is despite Brees and the entire offense playing horribly as of late.

The Rams haven't been too great the last couple of weeks either. It's beginning to look like the team that hits form when the playoffs start will be the ones walking away with the Vince Lombardi trophy. Other top teams that have not looked convincing lately are New England, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Kansas City and Chicago.

That leaves LA Chargers who have won their last four and narrowly lost to Denver 22-23 the game before the run began. If there is one thing I learned from the NFL when I used to watch it religiously is that team momentum entering the playoffs is really important.

Chicago???? They just clinched the NFC North for the first time since 2010, and have dominated several good teams. I mean, 2 weeks ago they intercepted Goff 4 times, and held LA Rams to 2 field goals.

You're right about momentum though. I do support it, but I've also found in all sports I follow, a team with huge momentum can often fall flat out of nowhere. It's a matter whether the opponents of the particular team are up for the challenge. We just saw Indy murder Dallas 23-0 after they were 4-0 in the last 4 games. SF shocked Seattle 26-23 (OT) after Seattle (4-0 in last 4 games) conceded 14 penalties. Then 3 weeks ago Indy (5-0 in last 5 games) lost 0-6 to the tanking Jags. While LA Chargers have the momentum, they must still come prepared to every game, otherwise they'll be one and done.

In the AFC the teams with momentum will be LA Chargers and whoever is the #6 seed. In the NFC, it will either be just Chicago, or Chicago and Philly. I figured out, it's actually not that hard for Philly to make the playoffs. If they can go 2-0 (vs Houston and @ Washington), and Minnesota go 1-1 (with a loss vs Chicago), Philly will be the #6 seed 9-7 to 8-7-1. And if we take a look, Washington can go 2-0 (@ Tennessee and vs Philly) and make the playoffs too! Chicago will be taking their week 17 clash @ Minnesota very seriously, because if LA Rams slip up, Chicago would become the #2 seed.

Matt: I completely agree with you about Carolina; they were nothing but fool's gold. That, or they are some serious choke artists this year. However, if I was Saints, I'd want to wrap up the #1 Seed against Steelers at all costs. No way would I want to have to defeat the Panthers in Week 17 after losing to the Steelers at home.

Right now, the teams I would be most afraid of are New England and the Saints. People want to give up on the Pats just because they are currently the #3 Seed, but let's think about it for a moment. First off, Houston has a greater chance of losing in the next two weeks then the Patriots do, meaning there is a high likelihood that the Pats will still be the #2 Seed. Even if they aren't the #2 Seed, all is certainly not lost. The Patriots will easily defeat the Ravens or Colts if they are the #6 Seed. To be honest, I think the Pats will destroy Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the playoffs at home if either of them are the #6 Seeds (not to mention Miami). From there, New England would face the Texans, who they already defeated this year. The AFC, in my opinion, is going to come down to one of four teams: Kansas City, New England, Pittsburgh, or Los Angeles.

I don?t rate Chicago, good defense but I see the offense as average, I?d still take the Saints, Rams, and even Vikings over them regardless of what the scores were the previous time they played if it was a playoff game tomorrow. I think Trubishky will choke in the playoffs, he?s got the pressure of the whole of Chicago on him and knowing that the team that has not reached the playoffs in 10 years.

I can?t see Washington reaching the playoffs but I can see Philadelphia maybe getting the last wildcard spot. The Patriots are still a dangerous team but they are not the force they once was. They rely too much on Tom Brady and age is catching him up. Pittsburgh are tough to beat inthe playoffs, especially if the are at home and if Ben Rothesburger gets hot they will become favourites to represent the AFL. Mahommes will choke, like Trubishky this will be his first time on the big stage and he has become a bit erratic lately anyway. If I had to pick the two Super Bowl contestants today I would have to say Rams and Chargers.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Dec 18th 2018 »

Note: This is a very, very long post, but it has some interesting info in it.

It's fair about NE potentially getting back the #2 seed, but you'd expect Houston to come out guns blazing against Philly this week. They know how huge this game is, especially after they should've lost to NY Jets. I'd say right now NE probably have a 40% chance to get the 1st week bye. If they get it, they need KC/LAC to lose in the divisional round. If they don't get it, they are done. Their 3-5 record away from home is damning.

Pittsburgh need James Connor back. Scoring 17 points at home isn't going to cut it against most teams. Luckily for them, he's a very good chance to return this week. The problem for them is that assuming they hold onto the #4 seed, they have to host either LAC or KC. That will be a tough, tough matchup. Then the next week, they will have to TRAVEL to either KC or LAC. Fun fact: Pittsburgh are 0-4 against the AFC West, and 0-2 at home versus KC and LAC.

Kansas City have a decent shot, but Mahomes is having to do too much lately. Losing Kareem Hunt has seriously hurt. And we have to remember some of their playoff performances. A 38-10 choke against Indy. A 0 touchdown game against Pittsburgh. A 21-3 choke against Tennessee. And also, this defense is disgraceful. Did you see LA Chargers' 2-point conversion?

LA Chargers are actually the favourite to make the SB at this very moment. They're not even completely healthy at the moment, yet continue to win against quality opposition. Since weeks 1-3 where they lost to KC and LA Rams, they are 4-0 against playoff contenders. They played none of those 4 games at their home stadium.

LA Rams look cooked. No way will they win @ New Orleans in playoffs, so their only hope is for Dallas/Seattle/Minnesota/Philly/Washington to beat them away from home. New Orleans lost 10-13 @ Dallas (in a game where officiating was strange), won @ Minnesota 30-20, destroyed Philly at home 48-7, and also destroyed Washington at home 43-19. So assuming New Orleans do easily win in the divisional round, LA Rams need to beat Chicago (lost 6-15 last time they played) and then travel and beat New Orleans. LA Rams are the 20th best yardage defense and 20th best points defense (concede 24.5 points per game). Scoring 26 or 27 points in a playoff game in order to win isn't ideal.

Kansas City:
Offense - 1st in yardage (427), 1st in points per game (35)
Defense - 31st in yardage (409), 28th in PPG (27)
Turnover differential of +8 (T-8th)

Houston:
Offense - 14th in yardage (363), 11th in PPG (25)
Defense - 14th in yardage (346), 5th in PPG (20)
Turnover differential of +10 (3rd)

New England:
Offense - 5th in yardage (395), 7th in PPG (26)
Defense - 23rd in yardage (372), 13th in PPG (22)
Turnover differential of +7 (11th)

Pittsburgh:
Offense - 4th in yardage (405), 5th in PPG (24)
Defense - 9th in yardage (333), 15th in PPG (22)
Turnover differential of -9 (28th)

LA Chargers:
Offense - 6th in yardage (392), 4th in PPG (28)
Defense - 8th in yardage (329), 9th in PPG (21)
Turnover differential of +3 (T-12th)

Baltimore:
Offense - 11th in yardage (369), 13th in PPG (24)
Defense - 1st in yardage (290), T-1st in PPG (18)
Turnover differential of -7 (25th)

Indianapolis:
Offense - 8th in yardage (381), 8th in PPG (26)
Defense - 10th in yardage (341), T-10th in PPG (21)
Turnover differential of +2 (T-14th)

Tennessee:
Offense - 27th in yardage (317), 27th in PPG (19)
Defense - 7th in yardage (329), T-1st in PPG (18th)
Turnover differential of -2 (21st)

Miami:
Offense - 29th in yardage (302), 23rd in PPG (21)
Defense - 30th in yardage (402), 27th in PPG (26)
Turnover differential of +9 (T-4th)

Cleveland:
Offense - 16th in yardage (355), 19th in PPG (22)
Defense - 29th in yardage (401), 22nd in PPG (24)
Turnover differential of +9 (T-4th)

New Orleans:
Offense - 7th in yardage (385), 2nd in PPG (32)
Defense - 11th in yardage (341), T-7th in PPG (20)
Turnover differential of +8 (T-8th)

Los Angeles Rams:
Offense - 2nd in yardage (421), 3rd in PPG (32)
Defense - 20th in yardage (363), 20th in PPG (24)
Turnover differential of +8 (T-8th)

Chicago:
Offense - 22nd in yardage (345), 6th in PPG (27)
Defense - 3rd in yardage (310), 3rd in PPG (18th)
Turnover differential of +13 (1st)

Dallas:
Offense - 21st in yardage (346), 26th in PPG (19)
Defense - 5th in yardage (317), 4th in PPG (19)
Turnover differential of -1 (T-19th)

Seattle:
Offense - 19th in yardage (349), 9th in PPG (25)
Defense - 19th in yardage (359), T-7th in PPG (20)
Turnover differential of +12 (2nd)

Minnesota:
Offense - 15th in yardage (358), 17th in PPG (23)
Defense - 4th in yardage (314), 12th in PPG (22)
Turnover differential of 0 (T-17th)

Philadelphia:
Offense - 17th in yardage (354), 18th in PPG (22)
Defense - 27th in yardage (385), 16th in PPG (22)
Turnover differential of -4 (22nd)

Washington:
Offense - 28th in yardage (315), 28th in PPG (18)
Defense - 18th in yardage (357), 13th in PPG (22)
Turnover differential of +9 (T-4th)

Carolina:
Offense - 12th in yardage (368), 15th in PPG (23)
Defense - 16th in yardage (352), 21st in PPG (24)
Turnover differential of +2 (T-14th)

If I use a simple formula (eg for Carolina, add 12, 15, 16, and 21, and then subtract 2), I can find out on average how good or bad these playoff contenders are. The lower the score, the better the team is:

New Orleans - 19
Chicago - 21
LA Chargers - 24
Baltimore - 33
Houston - 34
Indy - 34
LA Rams - 37
New England - 41
Pittsburgh - 42
Seattle - 42
Minnesota - 48
Kansas City - 53
Dallas - 57
Carolina - 62
Tennessee - 64
Cleveland - 77
Washington - 78
Philly - 82
Miami - 100