NFL - Discussion & Tipping Thread

I think I'm gonna go with my gut and choose Packers and Chiefs for these games with the news that Mahomes is playing.

In that case Warrior13 I would prefer it to be Daron Payne, Sweat could easily be the best DE in the NFL in a couple of years the way he is developing. The guy is a super freak, he holds the combine record for the 40 yard dash for a lineman at 4.41. That's faster than a lot of wide receivers who clock in at 4.5 plus.

People forget that Desaun Watson has had a lot of injures and Redskin supporters are only too aware what happens when you mortgage your team with multiple number 1 picks with the Robert Griffin III fiasco a few years back.

However, if Washington did get him which is a possibility seeing as his home town is Atlanta which isn't too far from Washington and the Football Team also get a top receiver in free agency then all of a sudden you have a dangerous team, especially if Rueben Foster comes back from injury and fills the linebacker spot which was a weakness in 2020.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Jan 23rd 2021 »

The Texans would not accept Payne since they still have Watt. They need an edge rusher, and clearly the Skins are not going to let go of Young. If the Skins want Watson, I really think it would take at least two 1sts, a 2nd, and Sweat. It might even cost more. I am hearing the Texans do not even want Tua at this point, guessing they want a more proven QB or a very high pick to get Fields or Wilson. They are pretty outrageous right now.

Well word on the street is that JJ wants out of Houston as well

I doubt the Texans move on from both, unless they get good compensation for each of them. They will get a ton for Watson, but I do not think the same for Watt. Should be interesting. They need the cap space and the picks.

Stafford and Lions are parting ways. They want a 1st for him, and many expect them to get at least that considering he is only (shockingly) 32.

I will be changing my pick to KC (and Green Bay). I felt more confident about my Cleveland pick because of the excuse that KC hadn't played for 3 weeks, but that isn't the case anymore. I feel like tipping Buffalo would be tipping the team I think probably won't win.

Getting Haskins is a poor move from Pittsburgh. It takes them out of contention to get other better young QBs.

The Deshaun Watson trade is going to get very interesting, I am now following it closely. The bottom line is it does not matter what Houston want for him at the end of the day Watson has a no trade clause in his contract and for him to waiver it he has to go to the team of his choice.

I don't think it will be Miami, I get the feeling Miami are all in on Tua and are planning on drafting his former wide receiver and running back from Alabama to give him more weapons. Besides, Houston have said they don't want Tua which means Miami would have to trade key players which doesn't make sense for them.

I don't think Watson would want to go to the Jets, they have no money to get him help in free agency and they would have to give all their draft capital to the Texans to get him. Doesn't make sense for him to go to New York.

That leaves the 49rs, Chicago, and Washington. Of those three teams Washington has the means to make a decent deal with the Texans and Watson would probably go to DC as the Washington Football team is literally a decent quarterback, wide reciever and linebacker away from reaching the Super Bowl and they will have 50 million to spend in free agency (if Alex Smith retires) to get those players. Now that Stafford has parted ways in Detroit the Washington Football club can use him as leverage to barter for Watson. Stafford is only 32.

I personally think Alex Smith will retire, the 49rs will get Watson and Stafford will end up in Washington.

Stafford to the Redskins makes far sense than Watson. I can't see any team giving up more than #19 for him, and I think that's far enough value for him. Redskins get a QB that can get them into the postseason, and the Lions would then have #7 & #19 (which should help them trade up if they want Wilson or Fields, most likely to #3 with the Dolphins depending on what the Jets do).

I still believe the Jets are the favorites to land Watson, especially with the mindsets of those in charge of the Texans. If they don't want Tua, I seriously doubt they would want Jimmy G, making the Niners less likely unless they package loads of picks. The Jets just seem to have everything needed to pull if off, and I even think they could do so without giving up #2 Overall. Think about it: the Texans aren't picking until the 3rd Round this year. What package would you take?

From Jets:
Sam Darnold (Only 24 - Still On Rookie Contract To Help With Texans' Cap Issues)
#23 Overall Draft Pick
#34 Overall Draft Pick
2022 Jets 1st Rounder
2022 Seahawks 1st Rounder
(Added Benefit Of The Jets Not Being Deep Playoff Contenders)

From 49ers:
Jimmy G
#12 Overall
#43 Overall
2022 49ers 1st Rounder
2023 49ers 1st Rounder

I don't think it's any comparison between the two; the Jets clearly have the better package. Texans need serious cap relief, and Darnold would provide way more of that than Jimmy G's contract. The Jets would also be giving up draft picks in the next two drafts, whereas basically all other teams would have to stretch it over three years (unless the Lions get a 1st for Stafford and then want to trade for Watson). If Darnold doesn't play well next year, the Texans could decline his option and draft the best QB in the 2022 Draft since they would have three 1st Rounders in 2022 in this scenario. It's really a win/win for both teams: Houston gets all the picks they want and are able to clean up their cap, while the Jets gets Watson and can keep #2 to nab OT Sewell or one of those Alabama WRs.

Yeah, Watson to NYJ makes the most sense for both teams and word on the street is that that's Watson's preferred destination anyway. I can see Stafford going to Washington or San Francisco assuming they're out of the Watson sweepstakes. I would love to have him on the Steelers because at this point he's a huge upgrade over Ben but I don't think it's possible unless Ben retires. He says he coming back so I think the Steelers move is going to be to go with Ben for next year and likely finish between 8-8 and 10-6 and then have to put together a package to trade up to get a QB.

Matt - I don't think them signing Haskins has any impact on that at all. It's just a minimum guaranteed 1 year contract and I'd be incredibly surprised if he is given a shot at taking over.

Bucs win. Would have been a blowout if Brady did not have three late picks in Packers territory. First team ever to have homefield in Super Bowl.

It's extremely difficult to correctly predict the 2 SB teams before the season starts, but that's exactly what Warrior has achieved! Well done Lonely God!

KC are thrashing Buffalo right now and will go into the SB as favourites, but I'll be pessimistically tipping Tampa Bay. Firstly as Warrior says, they're playing at home, and secondly there's been a pattern for a long time where one year NE win the SB, the next they don't, the next they do, etc. They won the SB 2 years ago, and Tampa Bay are basically New England v2.0.

I can't comprehend why Watson would want to go to NY Jets. They have been confirmed as his preferred destination, and they have the draft capital to do a trade. Basically if Houston concede that they can't keep Watson, he will be going to NY Jets. Which doesn't make much sense. Yes they have a lot of cap space, but they'll have less picks thanks to the trade, and are a franchise notorious for ruining talent and creating mediocrity. Teams like Miami, Chicago, San Francisco, Indy, Washington, etc are all far better options for Watson.

Still, if he joins NY Jets as expected, it means Miami are in a lot of trouble. Buffalo will win a lot of division titles under Josh Allen, and NY Jets would be a close contender in a few years with Watson and an improved team.

Leaderboard:
1st - Warrior (8)
2nd - Dennis (7)
2nd - Mike (7)
4th - Me (6)

Thanks to Warrior's perfect week, I cannot win the playoff tipping comp. Had I not changed to KC, I would've been locked in at 4th. I can still tie 2nd potentially, and Dennis & Mike can still tie 1st.

How should we do the final week? If Warrior knows what teams everyone is tipping, he can just tip the same team and automatically win the competition.

Also how should we break a tie? Should we tip a team AND a score/margin?

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jan 24th 2021 »

Thanks, but they were basically the favorites, so it takes away from the difficulty. Glad to see I will be making a little off my bets, breaking even overall if Chiefs win or fivefold if the Bucs do.

Not sure who I will be taking. Looks like Fisher is done for the Chiefs with an achilles injury, which would be huge with that Bucs pass rush. Need to know about AB as well.

My family usually separates the Super Bowl, but that is because we have a kitty. If you want to continue it as playoffs, that is fine. We always pick exact score, winner is closest when you combine points off of both team scores and total score. Example: Say you pick winner 24-10 but it turns out to be 31-17, you would be off 7 (winning team) + 7 (losing team) + 14 (total score) = 28. Obviously picking winner takes precedence. Rather complex, but in a league of 10+ every year, it needs to be.

The real question is: If Brady wins #7, will he retire or come back to try to repeat?

Lol, Deshaun Watson recommended the Texans interview Robert Saleh and the Houston management ignored him. Now Watson wants to play for the coach the Texans brushed aside. I hear rumblings that the Texan management have racial issues which is the reason why Eric Bieniemy who is black, and Robert Saleh who is a Muslim were not given an opportunity at getting the head coach job at Houston. I get the feeling Watson just wants to make the Texan organization look bad and incompetent.

Well done Warrior13, you are picking up money next week regardless who wins. You could win even more money by placing your guaranteed money on one team. Tricky game to pick though seeing as the Bucs are playing at home.

Doesn't matter to me how we do the Super Bowl.

I'm disappointed the Packers didn't win but at least there were 2 pretty good games. The Packers defense was bad early, but then they gifted Rodgers 2 picks and he did nothing with them. And it was a super cowardly move to take the field goal when a TD and 2 pt conversion ties the game. Especially when you're giving the ball back to Tom Brady with 2 minutes left. I mean come on.

Tentatively pickin the Chiefs for the SB, but I'll have to monitor for news on Mahomes turf toe. Losing Eric Fisher is a huge loss, but if they play like they did last night they'll be the favorites. Brady wasn't spectacular last night and I have to assume the Chiefs will manage to punish those types of mistakes more than the Packers did.

Funnily enough I'm tied in the pickem I do with my friend. This is our 4th year and this is the 3rd time we've been tied going into the super bowl. The 1st year I lost out by picking the Pats over the Eagles, and the year after we both made the same pick and tied. Crazy how that happens with so many games on the schedule.

I actually liked them going for a field goal there, but I have always been into the analytics. The Packers had a 9.5% chance to win by going with the field goal, not much of a difference from the 10% of doing so if they had gone it. Plus, their defense had literally picked Brady three times in the second half. I would have had the same faith in them as LaFlour did.

I would say their loss fell on everyone. Defense for failing early and that late (but justifiable) Pass Interference Call, RBs for turnovers, Rodgers for not just running it in on 3rd and Goal at the end there when he had all green, and LaFlour for (I guess) going for just three when Brady is on the other side.

Will be interesting to see if Rodgers is back next year. Two straight times of falling short, and for a team that seems to refuse to get him 1st Round Weapons. Just imagine what they could get in return for him. Probably not the Watson treasure trove because of his age, but it would still be a massive haul. Could then build around Love for the next fifteen years of success (if he pans out).

I hear San Francisco may grab Rogers, apparently he is unhappy with Green Bay. This offseason is going to fascinating with the four top quarterbacks from college plus Rogers, Stafford, and Watson.

I also hear Fitzmagic maybe going to Washington... They are definitely interested in him, apparently he has the arm to take advantage of Terry McLauren's speed getting downfield.

I wasn't a fan of that PI call. It was a penalty but it shouldn't have been called with how they were calling the rest of the game

It was too blatant not to call. The league would have had another New Orleans Saints outrage if they did not throw the flag. You cannot pull a dudes jersey like that. lol

Warrior - I like that way of breaking a tiebreak. Chances are we'll have an outright winner anyway, but if not it will work well.
Brady should definitely come back. He's shown that a big part of the reason he had a poor (by his standards) 2019/20 was because of the average NE offense. Tampa Bay's offense it still in its prime, and the defense is improving every year.
Rodgers should also stay. Last season's NFC Championship appearance was a fluke, and they were a far worse team then than this season. They've shown huge progress. I think he should see what happens in the draft as well. If they don't draft a top WR for him, he should walk.

Dennis - Fitz would be a handy pickup for Washington, but it would mean cutting Alex Smith. And I'm not sure that they'll do that to him.

Mike - Initially I didn't agree with the FG call, but had they scored a TD and tied it up, Brady would've found a way to score anyway. You just don't give him the ball in playoffs. Green Bay were better off kicking the FG to make a TD a winning score, and then trying an onside kick. Giving the ball back to Brady with 2 mins left was suicide anyway. They should've tried to win the game on their own terms. And Rodgers is probably the only person in the league who you wouldn't want having the ball other than Brady.

My tip is Tampa Bay 34-31. KC losing one of their best starting OTs really hurts. I read that over the past 2 seasons, KC are 24-1 in games that he plays in. I also think Tampa Bay are a more balanced team than KC.

Sounds good. I am still split. Chiefs offense can destroy anyone they want, but their OL is beat up right now. Their defense also is only middle of the row. Tampa is hot right now, but as I said, Chiefs can run up the score on anyone and I am not sure if the Bucs can win a shootout.