NFL - Discussion & Tipping Thread

If I were a betting man, I would put money on Jones being the first QB selected. Just wait, his stock will slowly rise like Wentz (though I don't think they are that similar like some do).

I can understand why, because Haskins and Murray all have some risk attached, but I can't get past his accuracy issues. Logic says that statistic will decrease in the NFL too.

I need some hard evidence to sway me. Your predictions lately Lonely Master, have been nothing short of horrendous...

Dude, the Bears wouldn't have been 12-4 if the rest of the NFC North had been what they should've been. XD

I know Jones is risky too, but I think his stock will rise. But it wouldn't surprise me if Haskins and Murray are selected first. I've heard some rumors that the Raiders might trade Carr and draft Murray at #4. Crazy, I know, but no crazier than the rumors about the Cards trading Rosen to select Murray #1. We'll see, I guess.

Mel Kiper had TJ Hockenson, a tight end, going #8 to the Lions in his recent mock draft. Haven't seen that many tights ends going that high lately.

The below is in a quote because it's a big tangent that may lead to the rest of the post getting lost inside it

Dude:
- Green Bay beat Chicago @ Lameau Field. Had Green Bay won @ Chicago, that's 1 less win.
- Minnesota got swept, but in the last game Chicago dominated them in a game they didn't even have to win. LA Rams were easily accounting for SF while the CHI @ MIN game was going on. Being generous, the Minnesota from 2017/18 may've got a win. That's 1 less win for CHI.
- Same old Lions. 0 less wins.
And:
- A 3rd and 11 pass from Brock Osweiler got deflected and fortunately converted by Miami late in the game. Cody Parkey also missed a 53-yard game-winner in overtime against them. Had they "been what they should've been", that would've been +1 win.
- NY Giants beat Chicago in overtime with Chase Daniels as the CHI QB. Had Trubisky been playing, that would've surely been +1 win.

Lonely Master, we've been over this :p There's so many ifs and buts. The reality is that Chicago by far exceeded your (and my) expectations. Had Chicago gone 2-4 in the NFC North, they would've finished 9-7. Until you get another prediction correct, I shall hold this over you...

I hope Arizona and Oakland aren't that stupid. Murray has great potential, but he comes with huge risk. NO WAY is he a top 4 pick. Arizona need to give Rosen a chance with a better than terrible o-line, and Carr just came off a career-best season.

I doubt Detroit draft a TE. They have far too many other holes. As we've seen with Miami, TEs can be very underwhelming. Pick 8 is too big a risk.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Feb 18th 2019 »

Rumour has it the Redskins are looking to trade up with the Buccaneers for the number 5 pick in the draft so they can select Daniel Jones. I don't think the Raiders will pass up DE Rashan Gary at number 4 seeing as they need a replacement for Mack. We are talking about Gruden here so there is no telling what he will do, all I know he is under pressure to have a spectaculer draft otherwise he is going to look a fool after getting rid of his two best players for draft picks.

Basically the Redskins have to trade up to get a decent rookie quarterback and it looks like there are only three available in this draft, Jones, Haskins (the Giants are interested in him) and Lock who could end up in a Dolphins uniform if Flacco goes to Denver. What concerns me about the Redskins trading up to number 5 is what they will have to give up.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Feb 19th 2019 »

Don't forget Kyler Murray. He has decided to back out of his MLB contract, and is probably the 2nd best QB in the draft.

There's no point Washington trade that far up if they think Jones is their man. NY Giants are only interested in Haskins if they take a QB, and Jacksonville are a potential destination for Nick Foles. If Washington want Jones, they just need to get ahead of Miami at pick 13.

I seriously hope Washington are not so stupid to select a QB in the 1st round, let alone trading up. Several Washington WRs are rumoured to be leaving/are set to hit free agency, so they NEED TO DRAFT A WIDE RECEIVER. Like I said about a week ago, there's no point throwing the rookie in with 0 targets to throw to. Unfortunately, I think you're right and Washington will trade up in a similar fashion to how they selected RG3...

Lol, Las Vegas are a dumpster fire. What's going to happen I'm sure is they'll pick a CB, an edge rusher, and a RB/WR/QB/any position. What I'd do with picks like they have, is to pick an area and make it the best in the NFL. For example if they select two edge rushers, all of a sudden opposition QBs will be running scared from the feared Oakland Las Vegas pass rush. Or two CBs, all of a sudden Oakland Las Vegas become interception kings and opposition QBs become scared to pass the ball downfield. You're very big on the idea of using quality draft picks to try create a dynasty, and the first step is to create an identity. Right now I associate the Las Vegas Raiders with stupidity. What will they do to change my opinion?

Ugh, it just feels wrong to type Las Vegas. I keep forgetting, hence the strikeouts I put in.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Feb 19th 2019 »

I don't think the Redskins will need to trade up to draft a QB. I can't see all four guys (Jones, Haskins, Murray, and Lock) gone by fifteen. Besides, I don't think they should even draft a QB. Who cares if Alex Smith doesn't play this year; it will make the Redskins all the more likely to have a high 2020 Draft Pick so they can get a real signal caller.

I actually think Murray, Haskins and Lock have all similar arm strengths. Haskins is better overall at this point, especially when considering Murray's height and Lock's inaccuracy. Jones don't have the strongest arm and he isn't the most athletic, but a few GMs are gaga for his on the field vision and pre-snap intelligence. A few are even comparing him to Wentz, which I guess is closer than comparing him to Eli or Peyton.

I agree in terms of Washington not needing to draft a QB. But the Washington Redskins organisation is known for making dumb decisions regularly, so I think they will be dumb and draft one.

What are your thoughts on Drew Lock? Not that long ago I read several articles saying that (before Murray signaled his intentions) Haskins was 1st round quality, but that Lock and Jones were both 2nd rounders, and with Grier probably 3rd. To me it seems like teams will be reaching big time for QBs, since basically every mock draft I read (including ones outside of NFL.com) has 3 of Haskins, Murray, Jones and Lock, all inside the top 15 of the 1st round. Several have Lock going to Miami or Washington, which would be crazy.

Another QB everyone seems to be forgetting about is Will Grier. Whichever team resists the temptation of reaching is going to be able to pick Grier perhaps as low as the 4th round. It was a while ago, but I seem to remember reading that he has similarities to Mayfield.

What I think will happen; not what I would do:
6 - Haskins (NY Giants)
[Jacksonville acquire Nick Foles]
13 - Murray (Miami)
15 - Jones (Washington)

42 - Lock (Denver)

72 - Grier (Detroit)

« Last edited by Matt77 on Feb 19th 2019 »

Grier has a very limited arm; I've heard even more limited than Jones. Thus why he is a second day QB at best.

Lock has a big arm, and that usually pushes QBs up the charts. Look at Josh Allen last year.

I honestly don't see the Giants drafting a QB; then again, I can't see any teams really drafting one in the first. This QB Class doesn't compare to the 2020 Draft, which is why I think all teams should wait until next year.

Yep, they should all wait, but teams will no doubt reach.

I have no idea what NY Giants will do. At the end of the season they were adamant Manning was their starter going forward, but I've only seen 1 mock draft not having NY Giants pick Dwayne Haskins at 6. If they decide to skip, trading down seems logical.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Feb 20th 2019 »

Like we found out last year there is no guarantee a highly touted quarterback is going to be a success in the NFL. If you listened to the reports before last years draft you would have thought there were four guaranteed future hall of famers on offer. In reality only one of those, Baker Mayfield is living up to the hype.

All the teams who need a quarterback are going to gamble, it's a lottery, if you don't enter it you can't win it. Nobody knows for sure which quarterback is going to be a success. I fully expect Murray, Haskins, Jones and Lock to be gone in the first round. The way the game is played the signal caller is the most important player on the field and every team wants a decent one to build their team around. Unfortunately the NFL is not like it used to be in that quarterbacks were given time to develop, because of the money involved now teams want instant results and lots of those young players simply crumble under the pressure and don't produce like they did in their little colleges.

Another thing about drafting a quarterback, a lot of their success will be to do with what team they go to. For example Tampa Bay in the mid 80's drafted Steve Young and he was hopeless. It didn't help that he was in one of the worst NFL teams ever but the guy looked totally lost and out of his depth. Head coach of the 49rs Bill Walsh saw a successor to Joe Montana and traded for him and the rest as they say is history, Steve Young went on to win a Super Bowl and is now in the hall of fame.

This is why I'm still amazed that the NFL has no reserve teams. Surely it would make sense to have a competition for members of the practice squad and unlucky backup players to play in. I can't help but wonder in the NFL's history how many players that had Hall of Fame potential never got a chance to play simply because they performed poorly at college. I mean, Brady should've never even played a single NFL game. He played because the NE starting QB had a serious injury.

In Australian sports we have reserve teams, and it's a great way to see how young players actually perform. If the NFL had it, backup QBs could do more than just hold clipboards all their careers. And in the last few years, the AFL has seen several players get recruited out of these reserve competitions. College tries to ease young players into a future NFL career, but once they are drafted, that easing disappears completely.

I've recently read about the failed XFL (which will be returning in 2020 after a 19-year hiatus) and the newly-formed Alliance of American Football (AAF). This isn't perfect, but it at least gives second-string players a chance to play regular football and refine their skills. The rules of AAF are a bit confusing and there's quite a few alterations to the NFL, but it's at least something.

9 years after QB Tommy Maddox was drafted in the NFL, he was the only QB to start all 10 games of the XFL season and won league MVP, including destroying the opposition 38-6 in the final. Then in his second year after being re-drafted into the NFL as a backup QB, he took over the Pittsburgh starting job. He had an above average season in 2002 (11 games started, 20TDs, 16INTs, 62% completion, 85.2 passer rating) and lead the team to an overtime loss in the divisional round. But the week before he rallied the team from a 7-24 deficit to win 36-33 in the wildcard round. There's quite a few instances where he's lead comebacks or game-winning drives. He started to digress the moment he started to get injuries, and then Pittsburgh drafted Big Ben and his time was up.

The point is, this guy was a total bust initially. He was a pick 25 at Denver and started 4 games in 2 years, going 5TDs, 9INTs, 55%, and a 56.4 rating. But then he got some game time in a real match environment, and his career was temporarily revived. Imagine if Denver busts like Trevor Seimian, Paxton Lynch, and Chad Kelly could get some sort of game time? The only one who got consistent starts was Seimian, and he actually showed some promise.

One thing I'll say is, go and look at the Washington roster. How many players on it have you never heard of or never seen play? Chances are there are a few that have played and you didn't know, but most of them you'll be correct with. I counted 30 on the Miami roster that I've never seen play or never heard of. At least 20 wouldn't have then. That's 20 players who could be doing something, and approximately 640 players league-wide that may never get game time at this level, but could instead be proving their worth in a reserve competition. And that's not even including the practice squad...

« Last edited by Matt77 on Feb 21st 2019 »