Roger Federer retires

I think it comes down to:
- Women play best of 3 sets
- The WTA has more depth
- The WTA doesn't have as many stable top 10 players as the ATP

Round 3 casualties:

Mens:
- Schwartzman (9)
- Evans (22)

Womens:
- Muguruza (11)
- Mertens (13)
- Pavlyuchenkova (16)

Medvedev came from 2 sets to love down against Cilic, to eventually win. Muguruza lost a high quality match in 3 sets. Pav was the underdog against dark horse Muchova. Roger lost a set in his 3rd round match, but is through.

French Open winner Krejcikova now has a 15-match winning streak, and is into the 4th round.

18-year old British wildcard Emma Raducanu is into the 4th round!

Remaining draws:

Mens:

Djokovic (1) v Garin (17)

Rublev (5) v Fucsovics

Khachanov (25) v Korda

Bautista Agut (8) v Shapavalov (10)

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Berrettini (7) v Ivashka

Zverev (4) v Auger Aliassime (16)

Federer (6) v Sonego (23)

Medvedev (2) v Hurkacz (14)


Womens:

Barty (1) v Krejcikova (14)

Tomljanovic v Raducanu (WC)

Muchova (19) v Badosa (30)

Gauff (20) v Kerber (25)

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Pliskova (8) v Samsonova (WC)

Keys (23) v Golubic

Swiatek (7) v Jabeur (21)

Sabalenka (2) v Rybakina (18)

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 4th 2021 »

Matt, I've heard of Carla Suarrez Navarro, she's from Barcelona where I live, I haven't followed her career to be honest. I think her claim to fame was doing well at Roland Garros a couple of years ago and becoming a top 10 women's player before she got diagnised with cancer. Apparently she's back on the circuit.

Women's Wimbledon is turning into a crapshoot, the only player I've heard of is Barty. Nobody is stopping Djokovic, he was easy money.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Jul 4th 2021 »

To be honest the womens draw isn't as bad as it seems. The French was random because there were tonnes of unseeded players. At least here there are a lot of players in that 2nd tier category. Also the #1 and #2 seeds are still in the draw (Barty & Sabalenka).

Also Dennis - Look again. I know you've heard of Kerber (3-time GS winner) and Badosa (Spanish Sharapova lookalike).

For Novak, he will destroy Garin next round.
In the quarters Rublev will pose a challenge. He has the game to beat Novak, but he will choke.
In the semis he will play one of Korda, Bautista Agut, or Shapavalov. Korda isn't at that level yet, so he won't beat him. Bautista Agut will probably win a set like in the 2019 semis, but isn't good enough to win. Shapavalov has the game to beat him, but will choke.
In the final he will play one of Berrettini, Zverev, Roger, or Medvedev. Berrettini is in very good form and took a set off Novak on clay (Berrettini's worst surface), but won't be able to break Novak's serve enough. Zverev has the game to beat him, but will choke. Roger has the game to beat him, but will choke. Medvedev isn't good enough to win on grass.

My 2nd week predictions:

Novak d Garin
Rublev d Fuscovics
Korda d Khachanov
Shapavalov d Bautista Agut
Berrettini d Ivashka
Zverev d Auger Aliassime
Roger d Sonego
Medvedev d Hurkacz

Novak d Rublev
Shapavalov d Korda
Berrettini d Zverev
Roger d Medvedev

Novak d Shapavalov
Roger d Berrettini

Novak d Roger

---------------------------

Krejikova d Barty
Raducanu d Tomljanovic
Muchova d Badosa
Kerber d Gauff
Samsonova d Pliskova
Golubic d Keys
Swiatek d Jabeur
Sabalenka d Rybakina

Krejcikova d Raducanu
Kerber d Muchova
Samsonova d Golubic
Sabalenka d Swiatek

Kerber d Krejcikova
Sabalenka d Samsonova

Kerber d Sabalenka

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 4th 2021 »

I'm still rooting for Roger, but I think it's looking more and more likely that Djokovic will be winning it all. I would take anyone at this point not named Novak.

I think you have to go with Barty for the Women's side for now. I know most people in the USA want Gauff to go the distance, but I don't see that happening.

Gauff is too hyped up. People need to remember that she's 17, and shouldn't be winning GSs yet. I can't see her beating Kerber, Muchova, Barty and Sabalenka all in a row.

If she does, she would have certainly earned it.

4th round results:

Novak (1) d Garin (17) 6-2 6-4 6-2

Fuscovics d Rublev (5) 6-3 4-6 4-6 6-0 6-3

Khachanov (25) d Korda 3-6 6-4 6-3 5-7 10-8

Shapavalov (10) d Bautista Agut (8) 6-1 6-3 7-5

Berrettini (7) d Ivashka 6-4 6-3 6-1

Auger-Aliassime (16) d Zverev (4) 6-4 7-6 3-6 3-6 6-4

Roger (6) d Sonego (23) 7-5 6-4 6-2

Hurkacz (14) d Medvedev (2) 2-6 7-6 3-6 6-3 6-3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Barty (1) d Krejcikova (14) 7-5 6-3

Tomljanovic d Raducanu (WC) 6-4 3-0 RET

Muchova (19) d Badosa (30) 7-6 6-4

Kerber (25) d Gauff (20) 6-3 6-4

Pliskova (8) d Samsonova (WC) 6-2 6-3

Golubic d Keys (23) 7-6 6-3

Jabeur (21) d Swiatek (7) 5-7 6-1 6-1

Sabalenka (2) d Rybakina (18) 6-3 4-6 6-3

Novak's cakewalk draw got even easier with Rublev getting bagelled and losing from 2 sets to 1 up. Khachanov v Korda's 5th set had 13 breaks and was a disgraceful set. Shapavalov looks a good dark horse prediction by me. Auger-Aliassime had the biggest win of his career. Roger was impressive. Medvedev lead 6-2 6-7 6-3 3-4 when his match got suspended, and the next day had a shock loss.

Krejcikova's 15-match winning streak ended. Wildcard Raducanu retired with breathing problems. Kerber continues her good form. Pliskova has not has her serve broken all tournament. Journeywoman Golubic got the (predicted) upset. Jabeur is the in-form player. Sabalenka made her first GS QF.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 6th 2021 »

Definitely looking like Roger vs Novak. Only way it does not happen is if Roger slips.

Barty is rolling. She has to be the favorite.

Womens QF results:

Barty (1) d Tomljanovic 6-1 6-3

Kerber (25) d Muchova (19) 6-2 6-3

Pliskova (8) d Golubic 6-2 6-3

Sabalenka (2) d Jabeur (21) 6-4 6-3

The semis this tournament are all big names, and should be high quality matches:

Barty (world #1) v Kerber (3-time GS champion)

Sabalenka (best player outside GSs) v Pliskova (had made semis in all 4 GSs)

Warrior - Barty is playing average. This tournament she is playing only as well as she needs to. In her R1 she choked when serving for the match at 6-1 5-4 40-40, and lost the set. In R2 she almost choked again. In R3 she choked again at a set and 5-4 Ad-40, but broke back straight away. In R4 Krejcikova lead 4-2* 40-30 with BP for a double break. In the QFs she was playing a poor opponent.

Sabalenka is probably the slight favourite. But all 4 could win the tournament. Pliskova has been terrible all year, but here she is having not lost a set. Kerber is on a 10-match winning streak on grass. Barty's best surface is grass.

Mens QFs are today. The tournament has been boring, as expected. Novak will cruise to the final. He may lose a set in the final, but will do his usual. Shapavalov will destroy Khachanov in the QF, and he can take a set off Novak imo. But the same as always, the usual will happen.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 7th 2021 »

Federer got whooped. US will decide who finishes with the most.

Mens QF results:

Novak (1) d Fucsovics 6-3 6-4 6-4

Shapavalov (10) d Khachanov (25) 6-4 3-6 5-7 6-1 6-4

Berrettini (7) d Auger-Aliassime (16) 6-3 5-7 7-5 6-3

Hurkacz (14) d Roger (6) 6-3 7-6 6-0

Novak cruised with his cakewalk draw. Shapavalov struggled against Khachanov, and will surely get thrashed by Novak playing this way. Berrettini remains the dark horse. Roger got bagelled at Wimbledon.

Roger's GS-contending career is now over, like Serena. In July 2022 Roger will be nearly 41. He has 103 singles titles, and the record is 109 by Jimmy Connors. He may decide to drop down to ATP250 level (lowest level of ATP events) and try to reach that record, because he is not winning another GS.

Matteo Berrettini or Hubert Hurkacz will make their first GS final.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 8th 2021 »

Sad to see a legend have to face the mortality of their career, but they will all eventually reach that point. Despite Novak likely to finish with the most and Nadal with more, Federer will still be regarded as the greatest by most I'm sure.

I was hoping Federer would reach the final and trounce Djokovic. I'll always remember Federer for having the Rolls Royce of backhands.

Looked like Federer couldn't be bothered in the last set going down 6-0. Either that or the previous set took everything out of that old body.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Jul 8th 2021 »

Roger would never tank a set. It was probably a combination of physical, and mental fatigue (losing a tiebreak set always hurts).

Womens SFs:

Barty (1) d Kerber (25) 6-3 7-6

Pliskova (8) d Sabalenka (2) 5-7 6-4 6-4

Barty and Kerber played a very high quality match. Kerber played well, but Barty was unstoppable apart from a blip that saw her down 0-3 and 2-5 in the 2nd set. She has a good habit of raising her level against the top players. She will be the favourite.

Pliskova came from a set down to win. She was 0/8 on break points in the 1st set, and then double faulted on set point (Sabalenka's only BP of the set). In what I saw Sabalenka played poorly and was a mere servebot who couldn't get the ball over the net. Pliskova has the chance to win her first GS title, after flopping on so many occasions.

Barty has now been world #1 for 77 consecutive weeks (and 84 in total), and her lead over #2 Osaka is growing.



Mens SF:

Novak (1) d Shapavalov (10) 7-6 7-5 7-5

Berrettini (7) d Hurkacz (14) 6-3 6-0 6-7 6-4

Novak beating Shapavalov in straight sets is ominous. I thought Denis would get a set. Berrettini continues his 11-match winning streak, but will lose easily. He won't be able to break Novak often, and won't get free points on serve.

Finals:

Barty v Pliskova

Novak v Berrettini

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 9th 2021 »

Definitely Barty and Novak.

And Barty wins her 2nd GS title, beating Pliskova 6-3 6-7 6-3!

Barty choked when serving for the championship at 6-3 6-5, but steadied and got it done in the 3rd set. Pliskova was applying pressure all through the 3rd set (had a break point at 3-5* 40-30, but couldn't break back). Credit has to go to Pliskova though, who hung in there.

Interestingly, Muguruza, Halep, & Barty have all followed the same pattern. They won their maiden GS at the French, and the following year they won their 2nd GS at Wimbledon. Wimbledon 2020 didn't happen, so Barty still follows the pattern.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Jul 11th 2021 »

Djokovic won Wimbledon, no surprise there. It does the competition no favours when everyone knows who is going to win it.

Matt give me the name of the next woman's and men's superstar. Someone for me to keep an eye on as they rise through the ranks.

And now it comes down to the US Open to decide who will have the most Men's Titles, both now and moving forward.

Dennis - Choosing just 1 name is hard. I will pick 1 currently successful player, and 1 player who hasn't risen yet:

Mens:
Current - Daniil Medvedev (25yr old Russian, current world #2, 1 YEC W, 2 GS F)
Future - Carlos Alcaraz (18yr old Spaniad, current world #72, 1 GS 4R)

Medvedev is clearly the 2nd best hard court player. He used to be awful on clay and grass, but this year reached the French Open QF and Wimbledon R4. He's lost 2 GS finals (in 5 sets to Rafa and 3 sets to Novak) and has won 1 Year-End Championships (end of year event for the top 8 players).

Carlos Alcaraz is a very good player given his age. He first played in a senior GS when he was 17, which is unheard of these days. He's already reached a 4th round of the French Open.

Womens:
Current - Ash Barty (25yr old Australian, current world #1, 2 GS W, 1 YEC W, 1 GS SF, 2 GS QF)
Future - Coco Gauff (17yr old American, current world #25, 1 GS QF, 3 GS R4)

Barty is a complete player. Grass is her best surface, but she has won a GS on her 'worst' surface clay. She has 2 GS titles and a Year-End Championships title. And she also has a Doubles GS title, as well as having reached 5 finals (including 3 in one year as a 15-year old). All her rivals have major flaws.

Gauff is 17, and already one of the most mentally-tough players on the tour. She already has one of the fastest serves too. She has no major weakness, and is only going to get better.

What are your guys odds for the US? I have Novak 80%, Nadal 15%, Roger 4%, Field 1%.