NFL - Discussion Thread

Ugh. Why does it seem like every week a forty yard missed field goal kills me? First the Rams lose to the Seahawks on that Thusday Game because of one, then the Pats against the Giants that would've given me the correct points margin, and now the Bears against the Chargers that sees me not being undefeated. -_-

One easy week, and now back to the usually grind...

Starts with Jacksonville/Texans. The Texans are so inconsistent, and now they have to go to London where Jacksonville sort of has a second home.

Then Chiefs/Vikings. Will Mahomey play? Even if he does, can he stop the hot Vikings? Will Cousins continue to show up, or will he revert to being, well, Kirk Cousins?

Then Steelers/Colts. Looks 50/50. Both teams can destroy a team one week, but then struggle the next against the Dolphins and Broncos, respectively.

Then Jets/Dolphins. Which team wants to lose more? Jets should win this one, but Miami has been getting better and better (even though they continue to drop the ball in the end).

Then Oakland/Lions. Again, two teams that go up and down.

And finally... Do you pick the Ravens to bring down the Pats? The old expression goes you pick a team until they lose, but if you can pick a loss to an undefeated team precisely, you can gain another game.

My head hurts.

Ffs. Drake catches a ball on a 2XP to pull Arizona to 25-28.

Anyway, as I said before, it's a tough week. I feel my picks are savvy enough to pull back a few games, but at the same time it could all fall apart. A hint: I am being brave and stupid at the same time with one of my picks, and it is not Miami.

Warrior, I think it's fair to say your luck this season has evened out now, after you had good luck to begin. Still, you deserved to earn the perfect week, which would've given you a score of 16/15 (not a typo).

Dennis, it's now been revealed that Washington failed to diagnose Trent Williams' cancer, which was present for 6 years, and was weeks away from spreading to his brain. I guess I can understand why he wanted to get out of Washington...

Well, my Jags upset was a bust. Thought that one would be close like the last time they faced - especially with Tunsil out - but it looks like the Texans are starting to wake up with the Colts leading the division.

Too much mediocrity this year in the NFL. lol

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Nov 3rd 2019 »

And Matt's Steelers upset becomes reality with, yes, a missed forty yarder from Adam Vintari to end the game. What were you saying about my luck evening out, Matt? lol

Well, at least Oakland won and I didn't lose any ground on Dennis. Congrats Matt on gaining some games. But can we please acknowledge that we all would've broke even if the Colts could make a forty yard field goal? I swear, these kickers are killing me this year (and always with a forty yarder).

What's worse is I lost a few games in my family's picks. Again, I continue to have the overwhelming feeling that this simply isn't my year. But I don't mind, at least not so much. I only get a little mad with the games that should go the other way and don't, like all those games that ended with a missed field goals. I can't stand those, as well as poor officiating that change the outcome of games.

I'm probably gonna go for broke soon if I don't start gaining ground. Better to burn out and go for it, I say.

To be fair, Indy have been missing FGs all year. I'm not surprised. But Brisset getting injured hurt. Fortune favoured the brave in this case. Sorry guys...

I am so scared right now. I tipped Baltimore, and they are up 30-20. But it was 17-0 at one stage. This was the tip I was talking about.

If they pull through (despite the score, NE are still the favourites with 7 minutes left imo), I will climb to joint-1st alongside Dennis

Dennis, Minnesota lost 23-26 @ Kansas City despite leading 23-20 late. Cousins had a terrible 50% completion rate, but he did pass for 220 yards, 3TDs and 0INTs. Minnesota's best WR also went off injured early in the game.

Green Bay lost 11-26 to LA Chargers

Cleveland are a disgrace. They lost 19-24 to a 3rd-string QB.

...and New England have been exposed badly tonight. Their cakewalk schedule has finally caught up with them. Down 20-37 with 3 minutes left

Dennis, & Matt - 87
Warrior - 84

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 3rd 2019 »

Double posting to keep Miami separate.

I know we probably need to tank, but I'm very glad we won. Going 0-16 would've been horrible. I'll take 1-15 now and the #1 pick. FitzMagic returned, and Preston Williams keeps looking good.

On another note, it's fantastic to see the arrogant Jets fans squirming, who thought they would make the playoffs with a 10-6 record Geez, NY Jets are absolutely dreadful. How did Dallas lose to them

That's was some brilliant tipping Matt, the Ravens look like they are going to beat the Patriots moving you to joint first place. Some shockers this week, should have known Cousins would choke playing away against a decent team. Should have taken Miami, they were clearly playing better than the Jets last week, missed field goal in the dying seconds cost the Colts a win against Pittsburgh and the Raiders playing at home against Oakland was going to be an emotional game they would want to win for their fans. I basically screwed up big time this week, it's now basically neck and neck heading into the straight.

Thanks

Wow. After reviewing the game, Minnesota choked HARD against Kansas City. After going up 23-20 through a TD, the defense forced a stop. Then Minnesota traveled 0 yards and punted (0/1 completions by Cousins). On KC's next drive, Minnesota failed to stop them on 3rd & 7 @ KC 29. They scored a FG later. Then with the scored tied 23-23, Minnesota traveled negative 7 yards (1/3 completions for -7 yards). Minnesota then conceded a 17-yard pass on 2nd & 21 @ KC 44, and a 13-yard pass on 3rd & 4 @ MIN 39. KC scored the game winning FG.

I didn't feel that Pittsburgh was an upset pick, even though the betting odds said it was. Pittsburgh were playing at home, and lets remember, Pittsburgh are dogs. They have stolen countless games in the 3 seasons prior to this one, and even this season they were down 0-14 to Miami, and yesterday should have lost. Do not write off the Dogs. Not because of their ability, but because historically they win games in fortunate circumstances.

You and Warrior didn't tip badly. It's just that I decided to take calculated risks, and almost every one of them payed off. The only one that didn't was Minnesota, and you both went the same as me. If Indy had kicked the FG, Detroit had a defense, and New England hadn't started with a 0-17 deficit, results could have been very different.

Worry not about Miami. We still tried to tank. While up 24-15, we took our star WR (who had scored 2TDs on the day) off injured. Then NY Jets scored a FG to pull to 18-24. But then NY Jets decided to throw the ball past Sam Darnold and out of bounds in the end zone for a safety...
Also, NY Jets lead 7-0 to start, and missed a FG that would have given them a 10-0 lead.

You said:

...and the Raiders playing at home against Oakland was going to be an emotional game they would want to win for their fans.

Either the Raiders or Oakland were going to win that game. Why'd you tip Detroit? They're not even in this matchup

Miami must be annoyed letting Kenyon Drake go for basically nothing, he looked like one of the best running backs in the league the other night playing for the Cardinals.

I also saw Buffalos quarterback Josh Allen for the first time, from what I saw he could quietly be the class of the quarterbacks for his year which was the highly rated Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield. Not spectacular by any means and no Jim Kelly but still a decent looking quarterback. Love the Bills vintage helmets, are they sticking with the Buffalo logo, it reminds me of the OJ Simpson years back in the 70's.

I understand now why Trent Williams is so upset with the Redskins, I hope he sues them for millions. The organisation obviously kept it quiet so he could continue playing for them.

Yeah, Dennis, I don't think you and I had a bad week. Things really just feel perfectly for Matt. Happens like that sometimes. If the Colts had made that forty yard kick at the end of the game to defeat the Steelers, and if Julian Edelman didn't fumble the ball against the Ravens that lead to a seventy yard touchdown return (which would've put the Pats up and probably would've seen them close it out), we all basically would've broke even with each other once again.

As I said once before, this season feels like it will be won by the person who is the luckiest. Last year felt more about skills and wisdom, but the mediocrity of teams this year has luck playing a much larger role than usual. To think, the Thursday Point Margin (something based completely on luck) might decide who wins in our little group. I'm seriously wondering if any of us will hit the 170 Wins Mark. Usually if someone does, they'll automatically win simply based on numbers. But if no one does, I think that just shows how horribly back-and-forth some of these teams have been. I won one year with my family win only 155 Wins (winning by only one game). That's a horrible year to pick, and I can honestly say it took so much luck for me to pull it out. I needed the Seahawks in the final game of the year to defeat the Rams, and it happened (which let the Seahwks finish 7-9 and actually make the playoffs).

Anyway, this next week is another tough one. Could see us all break even or one of us (like last week) gain a couple of games if things fall just right. I miss last year when things were more black and white. lol

Warrior, I was lucky this week, but there was zero luck in Baltimore's win. They won 37-20. That is a big win. I mean, New England forced TWO Baltimore punts (zero after half time), and the only other time Baltimore didn't score was a lost fumble in their own red zone. if you're looking for 'what ifs', what if after forcing a NE punt while 17-0 up, Baltimore hadn't muffed the punt? They would've probably marched down the field to lead either 20-0 or 24-0 (Baltimore scored on 63% of their possessions).

And don't worry too much about the margin. Remember, if scores are tied at the end of the regular season, margin does not count, and we instead play 'overtime', and will continue to tip in the playoffs. Only if scores are tied after the SB will margin be applicable.

If the season continues the way it is, the bravest person will win the competition. Warrior, you are 3 behind us, but I was 3 behind Dennis at the end of last week. Your fortunes can change in an instant. You've just got to be patient, and wait until there are a few games where you think upsets are likely. I still think you will win the competition ;)

If 170 points is what it takes to win, this is what we are all on track to finish with:
Dennis, & Matt - 164
Warrior - 159
We need a few more weeks like Week 8 if anyone is going to reach the magic number.

I have to disagree with you Warrior, Matt came out on top this week because of knowledge and having the confidence to go with his hunches which are not out of the ball park when you now anaylise them.

I put my hand up and tell you straight, I didn't have confidence in Kansas without Mahommes and the Steelers without Rothesburgher, but both teams have now told me they can win without their best players. I had a feeling Lamar Jackson would cause an upset against the Patriots but again I couldn't go with that hunch because of all the press the Patriots and their defense had been getting but I was well aware of their easy schedule, just didn't think Jackson had the experience to take advantage.

Miami is the annoying one though, the Jets have been terrible the last two weeks and Miami had shown signs of improvement yet I automatically went with the Jets because basically I thought the Dolphins would throw the game if it got close. Carolina I was going to take on the strength of McCaffery and being at home but changed my mind when I saw the odds. After seeing highlights of Matthew Stafford the week before I changed my mind on the Raiders vs Lions game as well. I should have realised that the Raiders would play all out in front of the Raider Nation in Oakland for one of the last times. Not sure how the Packers lost to the Chargers, Philip Rivers is having an up and down year.

I must agree with you however on how unpredictable this year is, I haven't seen one team that is head and shoulders above another, any team can win on any given week. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not New England vs San Francisco (not convinced with them and Garrapolo despite being undefeated) like everyone is saying and a couple of outsiders who put togehter a couple of decent wins and the final is something like the Ravens against the Saints, its like you say that kind of year.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Nov 4th 2019 »

Changed your mind with Carolina? Dennis, you tipped Carolina correctly over Tennessee.

It will be interesting to see how New England, and also Brady, go in the next few weeks:
@ Philly (SB revenge game)
vs Dallas
@ Houston
vs Kansas City (AFC Championship revenge game)
In the first 8 weeks, New England's opponents combined for a current W-L record of 18-46. Including last night, NE's 5-game stretch coming up had their opponents with a record of 27-15.

Well well Dennis. I said the same thing last week, and I'll say it again. You correctly predicted that Miami weren't as bad as most thought they were. After the Washington game you said it was possible for them to go 3-1 in their next 4 games (BUF, PIT, NYJ, IND). You also said if they didn't win one of them, they were definitely tanking and should be punished by the NFL. They should have gone 3-0, and will now face Bryan Hoyer and the Colts. Had Miami taken the initiative in games this season, they should be 4-4 right now.

If Miami were a few plays away from having a 4-4 record despite obvious tanking, imagine what they'll be like next year and beyond.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 4th 2019 »

Matt: If you didn't see the Ravens/Patriots Game, I can't expect you to understand how that fumble changed the entire game. The Patriots would've scored a TD to go up 20-17. There's no telling what would've happened after that, but Lamar Jackson was already feeling the pressure of a Patriots comeback and forcing passes. I'm sure this would've continued should the Pats have gone up. Plus, Brady wouldn't have forced that Earl Thomas Interception if they were up. It wasn't a "big win" as you say; the game was much closer than the box score shows. Again, I understand it's hard when you don't see the ebb and flow of a game live (assuming you didn't actually watch the game).

Dennis: I never said Matt didn't win based on his knowledge, I actually congratulated on his win this week. All I said was that we all would've broken even with each other if the Colts had made the final field goal and if the Pats ended up winning should that fumble never had occurred, which is true. I said last year of picking felt more about skills and knowledge over this year that feels like luck is playing more of role than usual, not Matt and his picks this week. Read.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Nov 4th 2019 »

Warrior, why did you leave our tipping competition?



I apologise if one of us has upset you. I'm hoping this is just a website glitch and you haven't left. Let us know.

I can't see Warrior13 either Matt, must be some kind of glitch. The competition was warming up nicely, it will be a shame if he has left. I refuse to believe I somehow annoyed him by basically saying you were brave to go with your gut instinct because ironically he was struggling with those exact same games you correctly predicted so they were toss up games anyway. He was bang on the money on all those games but unfortunately picked the wrong ones like me. If I did upset you Warrior13, I apologise, it was never my intention.

Warrior wrote:

Then Chiefs/Vikings. Will Mahomey play? Even if he does, can he stop the hot Vikings? Will Cousins continue to show up, or will he revert to being, well, Kirk Cousins?

Then Steelers/Colts. Looks 50/50. Both teams can destroy a team one week, but then struggle the next against the Dolphins and Broncos, respectively.

Then Jets/Dolphins. Which team wants to lose more? Jets should win this one, but Miami has been getting better and better (even though they continue to drop the ball in the end).

Then Oakland/Lions. Again, two teams that go up and down.

And finally... Do you pick the Ravens to bring down the Pats? The old expression goes you pick a team until they lose, but if you can pick a loss to an undefeated team precisely, you can gain another game.

The website is only showing results of 12/14 of the games. I'm hoping that once it registers the NE @ BAL and DAL @ NYG games, it fixes itself.

Warrior's pre-game analysis was spot on as you say. He even considered tipping the upsets of Pittsburgh & Baltimore too. My best guess is either the website is broken, or Warrior withdrew due to commitments in real life.

I hope you're right Matt, I look forward to Sunday night trying to keep track of all those games to be top of the leaderboard.

The website has caught up.

Warrior is still out of the competition...