NFL - Discussion Thread

So much for my 27-10 Green Bay win, they?re trailing the Redskins 28-10 at the half. Alex Smith is shredding the Packers defense to pieces. This is going to be one of those games of a tale of two half?s, Aaron Rogers has just come out for the second half and he?s connecting with his receivers effortlessly. Can the Redskins hang on are are the going to fall apart like the Falcons did in the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. It would be a great win if Washington hung on or even better added more points. What I want to know is, why did they struggle so badly last week against a mediocre team yet against the Packers, one of the Super Bowl favourites they look like contenders themselves?

The Redskins added 3 points in the second half and held the Packers to 7 to run out 31-17 winners. How comes last week Adrian Peterson looked hopeless and this week he looked like an elite running back getting120 yards and 2 touchdowns?

Miami beat the Raiders, Tannenhill had a great day throwing for 3 Touchdowns, a few more games like that and there won?t be no more talk of replacing him. No idea what went wrong with Minnesota this week. Mind you they?ve got Kirk Cousins under center so the Viking fans need to get used to erratic performances from him. Notice like in Washington he puts up great numbers but doesn?t win the ballgame.

I?m not having a good week so far, I?ve gone down to Atlanta who lost at home to New Orleans, Minnesota losing to Buffalo and Green Bay losing to Washington. I was pretty confident all 3 would come in for me before kickoff.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 23rd 2018 »

Well. Another crazy and heartbreaking week. Jimmy Garoppolo has torn his ACL and will be out for 12 months, unless a miracle saves him.

Another last-gasp win for New Orleans thanks to 2 Brees rushing TDs. I know I had a hunch with Washington, but I didn't think they'd win, let alone win easily! They will rue last week's home loss to Indy. Philly got lucky again with a late TD to get them the win. Minnesota easily accounted for the worst team in the NFL, at home ...or not! What the... 27-0 HT lead to Buffalo, away from home, and it ended as 27-6 with a garbage time TD. Cousins passed the ball 55 times, and they ran the ball 6 times!!!!! Baltimore got the win in the hardest game to tip of the week, dominating Denver 20-0 after trailing 7-14. Andy Dalton threw 4INTs, killing any chance they had to beat Carolina. Manning found form, while Houston are in BIG trouble this season. I knew I should've tipped Tenessee over Jacksonville. That's 3-0 in the past 2 seasons. They won the battle of the field goals 9-6. Kansas City & Mahomes dominated the first half again, and you read the 2nd sentence of this post didn't you... LA Rams continue to look like the team I predicted them to be. Seattle finally got a win against Dallas. As predicted by me, Wilson won the QB battle and as predicted by you Dennis Elliot carved them up. But Seattle found a running game out of no-where. Was 24-6 before garbage time made it 24-13. Arizona choked a 14-0 home lead to lose 14-16 to Chicago. Bradford got benched very late (resulting in a Rosen INT) and Trubisky was average once again. Detroit are currently beating NE 20-10! Teams need to kick NE while they're down.

Miami got yes, another ugly win against Oakland. They were clutch though, stopping Oakland on a 4th and Goal at MIA 1 and another time stopping them on 3 attempts in the red-zone to force a FG. 11 points saved meant without it, it's a 28-31 loss. They were also trailing 7-17 but got 3 consecutive TDs. Tannehill is having a great start to the season. He's got a 7:2 TD:INT ratio and a 121.8 passer rating! It was 155.3 in this game! And with him as the QB, Miami are 10-1 in their last 11 games! The high-risk high-reward pass D is a worry though, with Jordy Nelson absolutely killing us.

Just watched the highlights of the Miami game and I must say I got it totally wrong when I said Miami don't have WR weapons outside of Stills. Wilson & Grant are stepping up with Landry gone. Now thanks to Detroit's shocking 26-10 upset win over NE, Miami have a 2-game lead in the AFC East!

Nice tipping so far Dennis! Your lead has increased to 2! I found some form and will probably win this week, so I've closed the gap on you Warrior by 2 (still trailing by 3).

Sanzano - 30 (41)
TheTorturedSoul - 28 (24)
Dangerwoodlett - 25 (26)

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 23rd 2018 »

I am so annoyed, I had Detroit beating New Engalnd and I changed it one hour before kick-off. From now on once I've made my pick and entered it I am not going to change it. There must of been a reason why I initially fancied Detroit to win which was lost on me yesterday night...

It looks wierd seeing Miami and Washington at the top of their divisions respectively, I had the pair of them down as cellar dwellers. I think there's problems in New England between Belichick (now I remember why I picked Detroit originally!) and Brady and it's showing on the field. You could see Brady was frustrated by the way he threw his helmet on the ground after an interception.

You have to feel sorry for Atlanta, they've scored 80 points in three games and only managed win one of them. Philadelphia continue to win ugly and you have to also feel sorry for San Francisco and losing Garoppolo for the season with a torn ACL, that's literally ripped the heart out whose season is ended as far as reaching the playoffs is concerned.

What's happened to the Cowboys and Raiders? Both those teams looked like Super Bowl contenders only a couple of years ago. Especially Dallas, too many more poor perfances by and Dak Prescott will be out of a job, he's currently the 28th ranked quarterback in the league with a 74.9 passer rating.

Too many upsets and tricky game this week to make ground, hopefully I'll get more games right next week.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 24th 2018 »

On August 16th, I said:

Oh, and I'm sure you've already realised this from doing tipping, but:
- Try go with your gut as often as possible, without being dumb
- NEVER CHANGE A TIP, EVER!!! (in my history I'm something like 1-6 when changing my tip, & everyone I know suffers a similar record when they decide to change)

Oh dear. You didn't listen, and because of it you suffered the same frustration I've suffered in the past.

Dennis, just stop it now. Not being rude, but do not write off NE. Last season they started 1-2, and finished 13-3, winning the AFC and advancing to the SB (which they narrowly lost). I would still confidently put money on NE winning the AFC again. Once Josh Gordon settles & Julian Edelman returns from suspension, Brady will have some more weapons and will start passing for 300 yards again. And with the defense, this time last season it was disgraceful, but then improved very quickly and became good again.

Dallas have digressed because they used to have an elite o-line and handy WRs, but both of those are worse these days so Dak can't handle the pressure. In his rookie season he was handed success on a platter basically. Any QB could've won in that team. But now, the problem is that many people including me thought he was a franchise QB, so Dallas planned accordingly.
With Oakland, it all started when Carr broke his leg. That caused them to change from SB contenders to the worst playoff team seen in years. Then when he came back he was rusty, and then he injured his back. That was diagnosed as a 6-week injury but he returned really early after just a fortnight. They fired their successful coach Jack Del Rio, and then Jon Gruden came in and let quality players walk to improve locker room culture & salary cap space. Because of this, Carr has lost WR threats and has to stay on the field longer because the defense puts no pressure on the opposing QB (Oakland had 17 more minutes of possession against Miami, yet Miami scored 4TDs in just 21 minutes).

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 24th 2018 »

Craziest week by far. lol

Falcons losing at home? To the Saints who had trouble against the Browns? Giving up forty? Wow.
Bills looking like their going winless almost shuts out Minnesota? Really?
Texans starting 0-3 after starting 4-2 last year with their so-called savior in Watson? What?
Jaguars not even scoring a TD against the Blaine Gabbert Titans?

When it comes to the Patriots, it's clear they need Josh Gordon active next week, following Edelman returning the week after that. When that happens, Brady will have Edelman, Gordon, Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson and Gronk to throw to, with Michel coming out the backfield. That's gonna be tough, much more difficult than now where, since they didn't have Gordon or Edelman, the Lions could double/triple team Gronk. That being said, Miami is gonna get ripped next week. I thought there was a chance they could defeat the Pats in the Patriots had come back to defeat the Lions, but since they didn't, we are gonna get absolutely murdered. Brady will not start 1-3.

The Redskins continue to confuse me, as well as the team they beat in the Packers. Same goes for the Vikings, Ravens, Broncos, Panthers, and Falcons. Can't we get some consistent play from week to week? Is that too much to ask? lol

As for the Dolphins... This is the perfect start. We needed to start 3-0 in order to have any hope of reaching the playoffs. If we can sweep the Bills and take the other game against the Jets, we'll have six wins. If we can split with the Patriots in December, that will give us seven. It's crud that we have to play the NFC North this year; not really because we have to play that division in specific, but because the two roads we play against that division are against the Packers and Vikings. Not cool. Since we won't be able to defeat them imo, or the Pats this upcoming weekend, it's going to make reaching 10-6 or 11-5 to reach the playoffs a little difficult. By the games I've mentioned thus far, should Miami win and loss the as said, it would give us a 7-3 record for those games alone. For the remaining six games, we'll have to win three or four of the following: AT Bengals, VS Bears, VS Lions, AT Texans, AT Colts, VS Jaguars. From what I've seen thus far, especially since Jacksonville just lost to the Titans, those games are all winnable. I'm not saying we'll win them all, but there is definitely a chance we could win three or four of them.

Good analysis. From those last few games you mention I could realistically see 4 or 5 wins. 3 will not cut it, because I don't see us beating NE later down the track. Not this time. It's a shame that Chicago are suddenly a good team, although Cincy look average without Mixon.

You know what we really need? To somehow beat NE next week. Because even if we slip up against an average team (which will surely happen at some stage), it knocks NE back and gives us a 3-game head start for the division title. If we can win the AFC East, who cares about 10-6 records.

Tampa Bay just fell short of an amazing comeback against Pittsburgh. They were down 10-30 at HT, before clawing their way to 27-30. Fitzpatrick was bad in the 1st half (1TD 3INTs), but responded with 2TDs and no INTs in the 2nd. Once again a 400+ yard performance from him though. I really hope he gets to keep the starting gig.

Bell is 98% out the door of Pittsburgh. He wants more money, & Pittsburgh have now given other teams permission to suggest a trade. James Connor the RB also looks good.

1230 yards and 11 Touchdowns in 3 games, pretty sure Fitzgerald will be hanging onto the starting job in Tampa Bay for the foreseeable future. Those stats are as good as anyone to have played the game in NFL history over three games.. I had Tampa Bay winning that game, if they had of played the first half like they did the second they would have won easy.

Not sure what to do with the Miami against New England game, at the moment I have Miami down for the shock win. A team that is winning has confidence and I think the Miami players will be up for this game to prove to the nation the belong at the top of the AFC East. New England are a team in turmoil, I wouldn?t be surprised if Belichick looks to trade Brady as their relationship has run its course. This reminds me of when Indianapolis got rid of Peyton Manning, trade him while he has some value even though he?s the best player on the team. Can Miami win at Foxboro? I?d feel more confident if the Dolphins were at home.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 25th 2018 »

There's no question Miami are confident, but the teams they've played have been Tennessee (2-1 and look alright), NY Jets (1-2 and have looked average after week 1), and Oakland (0-3 and have a disgraceful D). The Tennessee win is the only one that looks good on paper. The worry is that Miami's already suspect D has lost William Hayes for the season because of a torn ACL. He tried to avoid contact with Carr because of the new rules, and as a result will be off with Garoppolo to recover for 12 months. Miami's passing D gives up a stack of yardage, but has also intercepted QBs 7 times in 3 games, so it's a very high-risk high-reward style (ranked 29th for pass D). I expect Brady to pass for 400 yards for 3TDs and 1INT, and for NE to win easily 31-17.

And about your Brady comments, again I'll say don't ever write off a champion team, but if Miami do the improbable and win this week, I'll jump on board with you.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 25th 2018 »

Yeah Matt, you're probably right although I do think it will be closer than that. I think the Patriots are struggling big time at the moment, they don't have the same level of talent as they have had in previous years. I will change my pick to a New England win and just hope the same thing that happened with my Detroit vs New England pick doesn't happen again. Although I won't mind if the Dolphins come up with an upset.

Who do you think will pick up Le Veon Bell? If he had of been on the market four weeks ago the Redskins would have snapped him up. I doubt they'd be interested now with Peterson currently fifth in the rushing table. If it hadn't been for the poor performance against the Cardinals he would be leading it.

Bell will probably go somewhere that offers immediate success. I'd say New England, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota, Indy, & Baltimore will all be in the market, but Green Bay & New England are the most likely destinations because of their successful cultures.

Only change your tip if you really think you should. If Miami win you'll be kicking yourself. I haven't seen NE at all this season so you probably know more than me.

I have to be sensible and go wit the most likely outcome as I?ve got you and Warrior13 breathing down my neck and I can?t afford to drop a game at this stage.

Last week I had a nightmare getting only 50% of my tips right which when you consider doesn?t include the bookies handicap is terrible.

Washington has an early bye week, not sure if that?s a good or bad thing, good because there?s a couple of banged up players that could do with a rest and bad because they are coming of a great win and it stalls momentum. The media is starting to take notice of the two Alabama monsters the Redskins have on defense who causing offenses around the league problems.

You may be right about Bell going to a winning franchise, with the amount of money the players make these days money is not a motivating factor, leaving a legacy behind is more important to them. Minnesota spent all their funds on Cousins so I say he goes to New Orleans. Billl Bilichick doesn?t tolerate locker roomtrouble makers unless your second name is Brady so he won?t go there. The other teams you mentioned are flea pit franchises with no hope of reaching the Super Bowl.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 25th 2018 »

Personally I see no chance of Bell going to New Orleans. They have Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram will be back from suspension very soon. I initially thought Green Bay would be good for him, but with the money side you pointed out, Rodgers is the highest payed player in the league so they'll be running low in cash. The team I hear popping up more and more is Houston.

With Washington's early bye, it is an absolute disaster imo. Last season Washington had a week 5 bye, meaning it was then 12 consecutive games to finish. This season it's in week 4 (I've never seen a week 4 bye ever), so that's 13 consecutive games. I know the statistics say early byes aren't always a bad thing, but fatigue will set in eventually and there'll be no bye unless Washington win homefield advantage. Having the bye in about week 11 is perfect, because it means after getting the rest, there's only 6 games until playoffs. That's just enough to find continuity, but not to run out of steam.

I snagged 10/16 correct tips last week; beating both of you by 2. A much better week from me. I'm still a fair way behind, but it's only early in the season. Anything can happen...

10 out of 16 tips correct is good going Matt, especially for last week with all those upsets.

I thought Ingram had some kind of substance abuse problem which is why I intially thought the Saints might be looking to replace him if a quality running back like Bell hit the market.

I can't see him wanting to go to Houston, that's one of the most unglamourous teams in the league with no chance of reaching a Super Bowl. He should of stayed with the Steelers if he wanted to build some kind of legacy.

The thing with Bell is that I'm sure he wants success, but he also wants the money. The reason he's leaving Pittsburgh is because they won't sign him up on the contract he thinks he deserves. It's basically a carbon copy of Kirk Cousins, except a greedier and more punkish version.

That's a good point with Ingram. I mean, we've just seen Josh Gordon released from Cleveland because he blew his 2nd chance. But still, I'd be very surprised if Bell ends up in NO.

And yes 10 is good, but the previous 2 weeks I've scored 7 and 9. You beat me 12-7 in week 2...

I've just done my tips for week 4. I'm taking some big risks here. 2 upset picks, and 11/15 home teams tipped.

I'm holding fire on my tip for Miami vs. New England and seeing what develops regarding those two teams during the week. I found out last week that there is a bit of gamesmanship involved when it comes to so called 'inujred' or 'sick' players we are told at the start of the week will not be playing in the game and then all of a sudden they have miraculously recovered and are in the starting lineup. This happened last week in the Washington game with Josh Norman and Paul Richardson and it influenced my decision.

If all the Miami players are healthy and playing I may be tempted to take them for the upset as they have momentum and confidence. New England are there for the taking even though they are at home, what worries me though is they have a history or scoring big against the Dolphins at Foxboro.

Someone needs to tell Bell that quarterbacks are more valuable comodity to a team than running backs who can be easily replaced, I think he probably realises this now as the Steelers have let him go.

Miami lost William Hayes (DE) to an ACL tear which hurts their rushing D, but will likely regain Reshad Jones (DB), who is a quality player. As far as I know injuries won't be a factor for Miami. But as you say NE score heavily against Miami at this venue, and when you combine Miami's 29th ranked pass D and an angry Tom Brady, it looks grim.

Looks like Bell will be going to the Jets to help take the pressure of Darnold. They're expressing an I interest in him.

Just had a look at ESPN's power rankings and the Dolphins this week are #17, apparently if they beat the Patriots at the weekend they are guaranteed a top #10 spot next week.

How long do you think it will be before the Patriots trade Brady? They must realise if they are to cash in it must be now. They leave it any longer no team will want him as he'll be too old. I bet Billechick is still annoyed he was forced into trading away Garapolo a couple of years back because Brady told the owner of the Patriots he wanted him gone.

I think the Patriots will be forced to trade up this year for the best available quarterback in the draft otherwise they go into next season with a 42-43 year old player who has seen better days and has no successor to take over.

If Brady and the Patriots don't beat the Dolphins I think you will see some major changes at that franchise during the off-season if not before. It's crazy having a player as old as Brady regardless of how good he once was with no obvious contingency plan. I can't even name you the second string quarterback at New England that's how highly rated he is.

Yeah, the Jets are a team being mentioned. They do have some handy RBs, but they'll make way for Bell if he comes in.

On NFL.com's power rankings Miami are 9th, which to be honest is fair. They are 3-0, they have the equal best interceptor on their team, they have the 3rd best QB (currently) in the league on their team, they have a group of young exciting WRs in fine form, & they have a young up and coming RB playing alongside a HOFer. While their wins haven't exactly been pretty (7pts, 8pts, 8pts), Miami have had to dig deep in all of them. The stat that impresses me is that Miami under coach Adam Gase are 16-5 in one-score games, and when you exclude the disgusting Jay Cutler year, they're 11-0 since week 3 of 2016, and are 8-0 when leading at HT. When you combine these stats with Tannehill's 10-1 record in the last 11 games, Miami are going to be a difficult team to beat, and if you are trailing at HT, you're in big trouble.

I was very surprised (and pleased) when NE got rid of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brisset. Both have proved to be starter material and certainly a better bet than taking a chance in the draft. I agree that NE are in desperate need of a QB, but don't be surprised if they lure one in with free agency. If they bring in a QB aged around 28 with good experience, they won't need to go to the draft until 2023.

But about trading Brady, I'm not sure about it. Firstly there needs to be a team who wants a 41yr old QB. That would have to be a team wanting immediate success or teams needing a short-term solution. Pittsburgh are on the decline, Jacksonville signed Bortles, Denver aren't close enough to a SB, neither are Dallas, and San Francisco would be mad to let Garoppolo go. I just don't see a way NE can trade Brady out. The only way is if CJ Beathard lights it up for SF, and if there's a Brady-Garoppolo swap. But I think we need to be having this discussion in a few weeks, because Brady got them from 1-2 to 13-3 last season.

I think the NE backup is Brian Hoyer. Or maybe he's gone. You're right, I have no idea. This MIA @ NE matchup is playoffs come early. If NE win they'll be revived and can easily go on a winning run, but if Miami win, they're almost locked into playoffs and NE will be sent down a horrible spiral.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 26th 2018 »

Just made my picks. Cant say Im all that confident after last week. lol