NFL - Discussion Thread

Me neither. My 2 upset picks; especially the first, may come back to bite me. Philly @ Tennessee, and Cleveland @ Oakland.

I really hate to say it because I'll just get my hopes up and have them crushed, but I see more and more optimism in Miami @ NE. These are opportunities that don't come often when you have a champion team like NE. Last season NE were 2-2 (my mistake for saying they were 1-2) and a weak Tampa Bay team hosted them, but actually played well. It was helped by some off play by Brady. But Tampa Bay missed all 3 FG attempts, and lost 14-19. Even 1 miss still would've given them the win. They had the chance to kick NE while they were down but couldn't, and it resulted in 9 consecutive Patriot wins. One thing with Miami this season is that they have taken basically every half-chance they have been given, and historically with Gase as coach and Tannehill as QB Miami are 7-0 when leading at HT, meaning they shouldn't choke. Get this win, and the division is Miami's to lose.

I?m still trying to decide who to go for in tonight?s game between the Rams and Vikings. It?s a tricky one to call, my head tells me to go with the in form home team to beat the Vikings as convincingly as the Bills did last week. But then I hear the Rams have two starting cornerbacks injured who are not playing tonight, the Rams got dominated by Vikings last year and Minnesota are desperate for the win tonight. It?s one of those games that you will be able to tell which way it?s going to go after 5 minutes, either a close competitive game or a blowout. My head is telling me that Kirk Cousins is going to have a big 400 plus 3 Touchdown game tonight. The big questions is how much do the Rams want to win?

Miami vs. New England is another tricky game, like Matt says it?s there for the taking for Miami but because it?s in Foxboro and the Patriots are desperate for a win against the most likely team that is going to challenge them for the divisi�n they are going to pull out all the stops to get the win in what I think will be a close game.

Well so far Cousins has 343 yards and 3TDs, so he's on track to make your prediction correct. LA Rams 31-28 right now. This feels like a game that will be decided by one play.

Well. Both offenses are dominating and LA Rams had a 38-28 lead and were in the Minnesota red zone, only to go no-where and then miss an easy 28-yard FG. Now Minnesota are waltzing down into LA Rams territory. Looks like the game may be decided by one play after all.

Game over. Minnesota got it to 31-38 and stopped LA Rams, but then Cousins got sacked, got a first down, and then got strip sacked. Classic Cousins in big moments. The o-line didn't help, but you're better off throwing a risky pass when you have less than 2 minutes remaining and have to move 65 yards.

Cousins was 36/50 for 422 yards, 3TDs and 1 fumble. Goff was 26/33 for 465 yards and 5TDs.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 27th 2018 »

What a great game, pretty much went like I expected. I didn't realise how good Goff was to be honest. I knew Cousins would be trying to take advantage of the Rams secondary with their injuries and would put up big numbers but I didn't think Goff would be throwing for 465 yards and 5 touchdowns. I didn't see that coming, being a Washington fan I know all about Cousins so wasn't surprised he screwed up at the end, he's got a history of that in close games. The guy's got to learn that if you are not sure to just throw the ball away and not try and make something out of nothing, he held onto the ball for too long on the play he got sacked. I'm still trying to figure out how Buffalo beat Minnesota last week as Cousins threw some world class balls in the game last night.

These two will teams will probably meet again in the NFC Championship game to decide who goes to the Super Bowl, which the Rams will win more comfortably. Anyway, I picked the right team. I said from day one its the Rams year to win the Super Bowl. The only two teams with a chance of getting a win against them in the regular season are New Orleans and Kansas City.

I was with you on the Rams in pre-season. I even had them at #1 on my power rankings. They were, and still are the most complete team in the NFL, and they've showed it this season. Week 1 they turned an ugly, scrappy game @ Oakland where they were down 10-13, into a 32-13 thrashing. Week 2 they destroyed Arizona 34-0 as they should have. Week 3 they handled a pretty good LA Chargers team with ease, winning by 12. This week they win a shootout with key injuries on defense against a pretty good Vikings team.

Last season I was stunned that Jared Goff turned it around after looking like a bust in year 1, but was horrified to see him consistently put behind the likes of Mariota and Prescott on the QB index (Goff's stats were 28TDs and 7INTs). Last week Goff was put at 17th after a 6TD 2INT start to the season. They better put him at minimum 10th, because he is clearly one of the best QBs in the league right now.

I don't understand what happened to Minnesota. In 2016 and 2017 they had one of the best defenses in the NFL, but in their last 5 games they have conceded 38, 16, 29, 27 (in a half), & 38. In those 2 years they also had an inept offense, but now it looks almost elite? If they can get a balance between O and D, they will be very hard to beat. Poor Kirk Cousins leaves Washington for Minnesota, who gave Case Keenum good o-line protection, and now that same o-line is dysfunctional. Apart from those 2 late sacks, he played an amazing game.

Minnesota lost to Buffalo because they (and me) thought it would be the biggest cakewalk of the season. They fumbled on consecutive drives which gave Buffalo prime field position. By the time they woke up they were trailing 0-24, and then it became 0-27. Buffalo realised that every team has a chance to beat anyone on any given Sunday.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 28th 2018 »

I'm wondering if it has caused unrest in the locker room bringing in Kirk Cousins, it has been well documented that the Vikings signed him for $84 million guaranteed this past offseason. Lets face it Kirk Cousins came across as greedy in the negotiations for his contract.

Is it a coincidence that Kirk Cousins is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this year? I couldn't believe it when I saw that stat, sounds to me like those Viking offensive lineman aren't trying as hard as they were the last couple of years, I can't recall protecting the quarterback being a problem in Minnesota. As for the Vikings defense, what's with all the points they are giving up all of a sudden. Something is wrong somewhere, they were a solid unit last year.

I'm still undecided on the Miami vs. Patriots game, I just keep getting this feeling they will beat the Patriots. Like yesterday though I'll probably go with the home team with the proven record against their opponents. I bet it's a close scrappy game whoever wins. At this point of the season New England are more desperate for the win especially after their bad start and being at home against a division rival.


« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 28th 2018 »

That's an interesting theory. It could be true. Case Keenum had great chemistry with the Minnesota WRs, and the whole team for that matter. Remember the duck duck goose TD celebrations they did? Now in Denver, Keenum looks an average QB. When they traded Keenum for Cousins, I really felt for Keenum and all Viking fans. This is a guy who took over part way through week 2 and turned an 8-8 team (3-8 in last 11 games) into a SB contender and created the Minneapolis Miracle. How did he get repaid? He essentially was fired, and replaced by a money-hungry QB from Washington.

What is funny with MIA @ NE is that last season in Foxborough NE attempted a 4th down call on the opening possession while deep inside their own territory. Very luckily for them it payed off and they scored a TD a few minutes later. If they had messed that up, they surely would've been trailing 0-7 in an embarrassing start. That was so cocky by them. Then 2 weeks later they got dismantled by Miami. Now Miami are the confident ones, and NE are the hunted. Oh, and it helps when Jay Cutler is cut from your team.

The Tampa Bay coach came out today and said that he was "a few plays away" from benching Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Clearly 2 games with 800+ yards, 8TDs and 1INT mean very little at Tampa. It looks like we could very well see Jamieis Winston starting soon, whether it's this week or next.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting slaughtered, Trubishky has thrown 5 Touchdowns and we?re only in the middle of the second quarter. Ryan Fitzpatrick needs to throw for some Touchdowns sharpish otherwise this result is going to look like a basketball score.

Miami are struggling against the Patriots who are leading 24-0 at the half. Cincinnati are leading the Falcons in a high scoring game, looks like Atlanta have no problem scoring points but stopping teams is another story. The other games are too early to tell, could go either way.

Bears have scored another touchdown, Trubishky has 6 for the day. How did I get this one so wrong? In form quarterback playing at home against a mediocre team with a good defense. Anyway, Fitzpatrick has been benched and Jamieis isn?t doing much better, this game is over,

Come on Miami, it?s now 38-7 with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati have beaten the Falcons by one point in a shootout 36-37.

« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 30th 2018 »

Falcons choked. Colts choked worse. Eagles choked worst of all. And Miami got slaughtered, as expected.

I feel like I should be only one loss so far. XD

Darn Eagles, Falcons, and Buccaneers.

I got burned the same as you Warrior13, I also went down with the Cowboys, I thought the Lions being at home would give them the edge, I didn?t count on Elliott rushing for 150 plus yards and two touchdowns.

I need to make up ground with the late games otherwise it?s going to be a bad week for me. This is the third week the Falcons have let me down and the third week I?ve got a Buccaneers game wrong.

Matt took Tennessee to beat Philadelphia, it?s come in for him. That was brave, I had Philadelphia winning that, what did you see that I didn?t in that game Matt, what did I miss?


« Last edited by Sanzano on Sep 30th 2018 »

Probably because the Titans are scrappy. But Eagles should have won; they were up 17-3.

Dennis, you must be getting mixed up. Dallas & Chicago were playing at home...

That Tennessee tip was so gutsy from me. More a hopeful tip. But I thought since Tennessee beat Jacksonville with a banged up Mariota, with him semi-healthy they may get the job done.

Wait, what? Dennis you correctly tipped Dallas over Detroit...

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 30th 2018 »

Jacksonville took care of business against NY Jets, and the good Bortles turned up. Miami stunk really, REALLY BAD. Picked off Brady twice and still lost 7-38 (0-38 before Brock Osweiler garbage time). Tennessee dug deep (again) to win a game they probably should've lost. There are issues in Philly. Houston got very lucky in a game that should've been the third tie of the season, after Indy passes from IND 43 in a 4th and 4. Buffalo couldn't replicate another shock away win, losing 0-22. Detroit lost in the typical Detroit way; makes a big comeback only to narrowly lose the lead. Mitch Trubisky took a huge step, and Chicago are playoff certainties now. Cincy keep doing these reverse chokes, which tells me this isn't the same team that lost 5 playoff games in consecutive seasons. Atlanta meanwhile are 1-3 in the toughest division in the NFL. Seattle scraped past woeful Arizona late, which tells me that Seattle are garbage away from home, and a playoff team at home. Cleveland got very unlucky and should've won that game, but Oakland hung tough. New Orleans finally found a defense to win 33-18 over NY Giants. San Francisco were so close to pulling off a huge upset @ LA Chargers, but conceded a FG to lose 27-29. Pittsburgh couldn't pull off a comeback like they usually do, which definitely says they are on the decline.

10/14 for me so far, with Kansas City @ Denver still to come. My Tennessee upset paid off big time, but I got unlucky with the Cleveland upset. I've made no ground on you Warrior, but Dennis you better watch out, because you've given up 1st place, and I am in good form. After my disastrous first 2 weeks (16/32), I am 20/30 these most recent. At the end of week 2 I trailed 16-21-22.

WannaBeLikeMike - 39 (24)
Sanzano - 38 (41)
TheChosenOne - 36 (29)

« Last edited by Matt77 on Sep 30th 2018 »

Matt, what does the number In brackets indicate?

This is the second consecutive week I?ve dropped games and it?s cost me the lead. It?s the same teams each week that cause me problems, Chicago, Atlanta and Tampa Bay. One week they look good then the following week they look hopeless. I also need to do some research on the Houston and Tennessee?s of the NFL as I know next to nothing about the strengths and weaknesses of those lower level making the numbers up type of teams.

What made you go for the Raiders over Cleveland at home? I thought the Cleveland defense woul have been able to stop the Raiders who have been struggling.

What?s next for Miami? Will they bounce back or is this the start of the end for them and they drop three of the next four games and allow New England to regain pole position in the race to the AFC East title.

The brackets show the combined margin. Ie each week you tip a margin (eg someone tips LA Rams by 4) and by how much you are off it by (eg the margin was 7) is your weekly margin. That example's margin would be 3. All the week's worth of margins are added up for your combined margin. It's so that if two people are tied, the person with the lowest margin score wins.

Houston were supposedly a team on the rise. For years they scraped into playoffs despite having a disgusting offense, with QBs like Brian Hoyer and Brock Osweiler. It's because their defense was elite. Then they finally found Deshaun Watson and were flying last season before he got injured and Houston won just 1 more game to finish 4-12. Now the team is healthy, but the defense is suddenly weak and Watson hasn't quite reached the levels he did last season.

Tennessee are quite similar, except they've had Marcus Mariota the #1 pick for a while. He's been inconsistent in his early career and had a 13TD 15INT season in 2017. They've always been an inconsistent team who often win really ugly games. 2 seasons ago they were on track for finally a playoffs birth before choking so hard against a woeful Jaguars team. Last season they were very average and won a stack of games they shouldn't have, before they found form in the final few weeks, got playoffs, and had a memorable win @ KC after trailing 3-21. This season they're 3-1 despite Mariota being injured for the first 3 weeks, and having other injury problems. And their only loss was week 1 away from home to Miami. They are always tough to play against.

Despite me tipping against Oakland in every game this season, they are actually not that bad. In week 1 they were matching LA Rams for 3 quarters and it was 13-13, before LA Rams pulled away to win easily. That's the 4-0 Rams who are unstoppable. In week 2 they choked so badly @ Denver after leading 19-7, to lose 19-20. In week 3 they screwed up a 4th & goal while leading 7-0 @ Miami, and choked a 17-7 lead to lose 20-28. Now this week they finally got some luck. It's arguable that Oakland should be 3-1 right now. But like you I was shocked that Oakland could put 45 on Cleveland's D (Oakland also missed 2FGs). The Oakland O is good, but come the draft they need to use their three 1st round picks to pick up some elite defensive talent.

I won't go off the rails at Miami just yet. In 2016 after they lost 6-38 to Baltimore I stuck a fork in their season, but they then won their next 3 games to clinch a playoff birth. So really, this is just a L for Miami. Net points are basically irrelevant in the NFL. The problem is that @ Cincy looks like an easy Cincy win now, and now vs Chicago will be a loss instead of a win. Last season Miami started 4-2 after a thrilling comeback win @ Atlanta, only to go 2-8 after that and finish 6-10.

This is why I told you not to write off New England. Julian Edelman will be back next week too. All NE need is one win alongside a Miami loss, and the division is theirs once again.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 1st 2018 »

Thanks for that Matt, that will come in handy when I make my week 5 predictions. I thought I was winning with that high number in the brackets.

It?s going to be interesting to see how good the Bears can be, especially on defense now they have Mack. I wonder what the Raiders will do in the next draft with all those picks, they could definitely get the best defensive player if they use a couple of those picks to trade up. I?m going to have to keep an eye on the Bengals who are a bit of a dark horse. On their day willl give anyone in the NFL a good game.

Chicago's success will depend solely on Mitch Trubisky. If he just does the bare minimum, they will win games and sneak into playoffs. But if he plays similar to how he did yesterday, they are winning the NFC North.

Yep, Cincy are good. Their one loss was a 21-31 away loss to Carolina, with AJ Green leaving through injury. It's amazing how clutch they've been this season. I think it all started when Andy Dalton completed a 30+yard TD pass on the last play of the 2017 season @ Baltimore to send them out of playoffs. The week before they also ended Detroit's season. Those 2 impressive wins came after they recommitted to their coach. That's 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Chicago is smoke and mirrors. Write it down: they won't finish any better than 8-8.

Cincinnati is worse. They've gotten so lucky this season thus far, having faced an injured Atlanta team and an unmotivated Ravens' club (at the time). They'll probably take Miami next week since 3/5 of our offensive line is injured, but it wouldn't surprise me if they drop the ball. My guess is they'll go 9-7. I don't see them winning their Division, at least not after the Steelers get Bell after Week 7, Baker Mayfield gets grooving with Cleveland, and if the Ravens can stay motivated. No way they could.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Oct 1st 2018 »

Check my custom title ;)

Wow. I must say I disagree completely about Chicago and a little bit about Cincy, but in the past you have been right with bold predictions (remember a few years ago Minnesota started 5-0 and every week you said they wouldn't make playoffs. They finished 8-8). Before the season I thought Chicago were so overrated, but now I know their defense is elite. If they hadn't choked a 20-0 lead over Green Bay they would be 4-0. They will go well, but it depends how many wins they get whether they'll make playoffs.

I'm not totally sold on Cincy, but right at this moment they look very good. Of course they are the Bungles so a choke is definitely a possibility, but they've exceeded my expectations so far. Also the excuses card does not work. I could go, "LA Rams faced a woeful Oakland team, an even worse Arizona team, an LA Chargers team that always chokes in big games, and a Minnesota D that is a total mess. They're lucky to even have 1 win" You can only beat who is on your schedule.

I read that Bell will return in week 10, that is if he is still at the club. Pittsburgh are done. The old Pittsburgh were dogs and stole every game possible, but this season they haven't been able to do it. Last season they were lucky to make playoffs. Now with Bell gone, how will they do it? They choked a 21-7 lead over CLEVELAND and TYROD TAYLOR to tie, then conceded over 40 at home to KC, then got a very close 30-27 win over Tampa Bay (who just lost 10-48 to Chicago; the team who are smoke and mirrors) after leading 30-10. Now they just lost at home to Baltimore 14-26, who they usually have the wood over.

Watch out with Baked Mayfield though. Yes he was brilliant last week (against the lowly Jets), but 2 days ago he threw 2INTs and lost 2 fumbles against one of the worst defenses in the league. Cleveland were long shots to contend for the AFC North, but now at 1-2-1 it's gonna be even harder. Also watch out with Baltimore. They're one of the most inconsistent teams, with an inconsistent QB.

My way too early playoff predictions:

New England
Jacksonville
Baltimore
Kansas City

LA Chargers
Tennessee
So close yet so far: Pittsburgh, Cincy.

LA Rams
New Orleans
Green Bay
Washington

Atlanta
Minnesota
So close yet so far: Carolina, Chicago, Philly

« Last edited by Matt77 on Oct 2nd 2018 »