NFL - Discussion Thread

...oh god. This next week...

Green Bay @ Seattle - Coin toss
Dallas @ Atlanta - Almost coin toss
Cincy @ Baltimore - Could possibly be an upset
Carolina @ Detroit - Almost coin toss
Tennessee @ Indy - Coin toss
Tampa Bay @ NY Giants - Coin toss
Houston @ Washington - Coin toss
Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville - Could possibly be an upset
Oakland @ Arizona - Coin toss
Denver @ LA Chargers - Phew. Certain LAC win
Philly @ New Orleans - Could possibly be an upset
Minnesota @ Chicago - Coin toss
Kansas City vs LA Rams (Mexico game, supposed LAR home game) - Coin toss

We could legitimately catch Warrior in just one week. It's highly unlikely, but 1/13 games are certain wins.

Lol, yeah, if we're going to catch Warrior13 this is the week. I've learned now that all the games are potential upsets. After last week, I don't feel confident about any of the games this week. If we can pick three or four winners in the 'coin toss' category we're back in the game if Warrior13 plays conservatively. Mind you it could backfire and we could end up further behind which will probably be the later knowing my luck.

My strategy will be to go slightly bold, but not too much that it's ridiculous. I at least want 2nd place as a consolation prize. If I pick 7 upsets per week there's no realistic way I'd catch Warrior, and then it would gift you 2nd place. I was +2 on him and +3 on you this week, so if I can achieve that a couple of times, that will be enough to get me back in the competition.

I find it odd that both you and Warrior keep picking Tampa Bay. There's been a number of TB games where you've both tipped them and I've tipped against (vs Chicago, Cleveland, Washington). I'm 2-1 in those while you're both 1-2 (the win over Cleveland was from a 59-yard FG in overtime). Firstly they have a disgusting defense, secondly they have instability at QB (Fitzpatrick can throw big, but can throw picks too), and have virtually no running game. You both tipping them this week was a crucial mistake. What do you see in them that I don't?

While it hasn't been quite the demise you predicted back in week 4, I can see some big issues in New England. Yes they will still represent the AFC in the Superbowl, but in the long term they are in huge trouble. They have zero running game, a semi-injured semi-ageing WR group, a 40-year old QB, an ageing coach, and an inconsistent defense. To make matters worse, NY Jets and Buffalo have drafted rookie QBs, and Miami are about to do the same soon. If they don't start planning for the future soon, they could take a massive dive once Brady retires.

Tampa would've won if Fitzpatrick wasn't such a turnover machine. lol

Congrats on gaining a few games, Matt. This is going to be another tough week to pick. Might have to start picking a few more upsets. lol

The KC vs LAR game has been moved out of Mexico due to bad field conditions. So it will be an actual home game to LA Rams. That makes tipping that game even harder...

Yes, but Washington would've destroyed them if Alex Smith wasn't such a conservative QB.

I just saw that Smith has thrown just 3 interceptions in 9 games. I thought that was impressive, but Rodgers and Brees have both thrown just ONE in 9 and 10 games respectively. What the heck?! Mahomes has a ratio is 31:7, and Brees has 21:1. This will be an interesting battle for MVP.

Bell hasn't signed his franchise deal. There is probably a 97% chance now that he'll be leaving Pittsburgh. The problem for PIT is that he's a free agent. Are there any compensation draft picks given in the NFL, or will PIT get nothing? I must say I don't know much about free agency in the NFL.

Lonely Master, while I want you to crumble and give me 1st place, I will give you a warning. Don't start tipping lots of upsets when you have a big lead. That's high risk high reward stuff, but if it doesn't pay off you'll find yourself back among us once again. A couple of years ago I had a 7 game lead and did just that, and by the end of the final round I was only ahead by margin.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 13th 2018 »

8 home, 5 away. Not. Confident. One. Bit.

Me neither, I?ll either gain ground or fall further behind this week.

As for the game being switched to L.A. because of the turf, seriously... It was switched because the NFL realise it is a showcase game with two Super Bowl contenders that have a combined record of 18-2. No way the Mexicans were having that game. The NFL will probably give them a Raiders game at a later date as compensation,.

As for Bell, this is the Kirk Cousins scenario all over again. I think the Steelers get a fourth round pick in the draft if he walks. At the moment the Steelers can tag him but it will cost them, they?ll let him go, they don?t need him, I might be different if he was a quarterback but running backs are two a penny.

If I was the Steelers, I would transition tag Bell in the offseason. They could put a charge of a first round pick with it, meaning if another team signs him, they would have to give the Steelers a first rounder. Basically a sign and trade; we know a team will be desperate enough to do it.

4th round pick?!?! Sounds like free agency compensation is as random as it is in Australia...

Dennis, I get your theory but the NFL desperately wanted that game in Mexico. they caved because the NFLPA were worried about player safety. That field is horrific.

This tipping will be horrible. I picked 2 upsets according to the website, but in reality there's about 8 games I'm worried about. I went with 10 home teams and 3 away teams.



« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 14th 2018 »

This week should be interesting, I have 7 away teams. I think I?m going to have to look at my tips again, that seems like a lot of away teams now I think about it.

Warrio13 is right, the Steelers have a good chance of getting a 1st round pick for Bell, if nothing else he?s proven that he can rack-up yardage in the NFL. I wouldn?t be surprised if the N.Y. Jets pick him up. After hearing Bells side of the story I don?t blame him for missing the season, the Steelers were set to abuse him in the last year of his contract which brought with it a higher probability of being injured.

I went with so many home teams because of this crazy week. Going with home teams is a safe decision I think.

I also tipped Washington as one of those 10 home teams and one of the upsets. I see Houston as the slightly better team, but homeground advantage pulls Washington to almost even. I just think that eventually Houston's 6-game winning streak has to end, and now is the perfect time since their bye has killed their momentum. Also, Adrian Peterson has a pattern of good vs bad games, and last week he had a bad game.

This is a huge week for Washington. They are at home with a 2-game lead over Dallas & Philly, while they both have to travel to Atlanta & New Orleans respectively. I fully expect them to both lose, so if Washington can somehow get the win, that should be the division wrapped up.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 15th 2018 »

I just had a look at my tips and now have 4 away teams although that may change again before Sudnday. I need to get tomorrow's game correct, the last two weeks I have got it wrong.

As for Washington, I still don't know what to make of them. I've picked against them three times now and been burned. I just don't think they can keep up with a high scoring team, especially now with those injuries on the offensive line. I'll be going Houston on the strength of the Texans defensive line which I think will be able to get to Alex Smith now his pro bowler guard is missing. I don't think Adrian Peterson is going to do a lot, another 50 yard game. On offense the Texans have a couple of big nasty physical recievers that I think will give the Washington secondary problems. I see this game 21-17 Texans.

I am not looking forward to tomorrow's game. That was a 50/50 too. Green Bay are slightly better imo (and have a knack of coming good in the 2nd half of seasons), but GB are 0-4 away from home and Seattle are at home where they historically play very well. You'll have to wait and see who I tipped.

Houston's passing game has been hurt. Will Fuller tore his ACL a few weeks ago, and in their last game they won 19-17 (1TD 4FGs) against the 3-7 Broncos. In fact, Denver missed 2FGs so they should've won 23-20. I think the Washington defense can match it with Houston's D, so it's a matter of how the offense goes. Washington usually stop the run, and they also never pass big themselves. So it's basically Deshaun Watson & DeAndre Hopkins vs Adrian Peterson and the Washington o-line. Now that I simplify it, it looks bleak for Washington...

The big factor in that game will be turnovers. The fact that Washington weren't thrashed last week is incredible, an they turned a game that they should've lost 16-38 into a 16-3 win. Their red-zone defense was legendary. If Josh Norman can stop Hopkins being influential, Watson will have to choose other targets, and that's where Washington have INT chances. From a Houston point of view, they have a 33% chance of intercepting Alex Smith once, an 11% chance of 2INTs, but odds of 67% that they will get none.

I see an ugly 16-14 win for Washington. But the absolute key for Washington is to SCORE FIRST. They are 6-0 when never surrendering the lead in a game, and 0-3 when never gaining the lead.

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 15th 2018 »

Get ready for tough week! lol

Ugh. I tipped Seattle while you both tipped Green Bay. And it's a shootout. Rodgers doesn't lose shootouts.

Seattle have pulled ahead 27-24! I really doubt they can hold on though... This will be huge for my tipping chances if Seattle can win.

The 3rd and 2 pass is incomplete! Green Bay have to punt with 4 minutes left! The bad thing now is that if Seattle go 3 and out (extremely likely) then Rodgers will win the game for GB.

One first down has been made, wiping off a minute. Still, 3 mins 18 is a very long time. Green Bay are out of timeouts!

Another 1st down! Lol, everyone on this planet knows Seattle will be running on every play, yet they're carving through the GB D. 2 mins left now. All they need to do after the break is run, run, run, and if necessary, get their rookie sensation to punt deep.

YES! Seattle win 27-24!

« Last edited by Matt77 on Nov 15th 2018 »

Gawd, did the Packers ever drop the ball. This easily should have been a blowout, but I guess that is why the Pack will be missing the playoffs.

Was it a game GB dominated? Or did you think pre-game that it would be one?

The Packers had too many mistakes. They were up 14-3 early at one point with the ball, but they did not keep the pedal to the metal. It was looking like a serious blowout early.

« Last edited by Warrior13 on Nov 15th 2018 »

Yeah, I remember that now. Early I was following the scores and Green Bay were always one step ahead. They missed a FG too, and if that kick had made it in theory the game would've gone to overtime 27-27. Also when they had a 3rd and 3 at SEA 46 but couldn't get through was a huge chance missed. Make that, and Green Bay worse case have to attempt a 4th down; best case they score a TD and win the game.

Green Bay are now 0-5 on the road, and 4-0-1 at home. Even if they make playoffs (which they still will I think), they have a 0% chance of winning the SB.

Still, Seattle did what has worked well for them this season and rode their running game, while Wilson was efficient. They've got to be the best non-playoff team we've seen in a while. Their 5 losses have been @ Denver (before they got bad), @ Chicago, LA Rams, LA Chargers, and @ LA Rams (combined 34-14 record).

Well done Matt! That was a brave pick. Seattle used to be a burial ground for opposing teams but lately the Seahawks haven't done much so that was a risky pick. That's three picks on the trot you've been incredibly lucky with. Have you ever heard of Murphy's Law?

I think Green Bay are finished for the season, they should have paid their safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix the money he wanted instead of trading him to Washington. Sounds like the Packers would have won that game if he had of been playing.

That's three weeks on the trot I've got the Thursday night game wrong...