NFL - Discussion Thread

Now Aaron Rodgers is on the clock he may start playing better. Just like Joe Montana did when Steve Young was breathing down his neck. All depends on Rogers frame of mind, is he a sulker or a fighter, unfortunately I think he is a sulker and will throw his dummy out the cot and be traded at the end of next season as things turn sour for him in Green Bay.

Years ago I used to do a fun NFL bet each weekend of 5 pounds to make the games interesting. You basically had to choose three winners (had to beat the points spread) to pick up 30 pounds. I think with our knowledge we could win a few quid two out of every three weeks. We each see something the other doesn't.

So it was like an accumulator? For each game you bet on in the accumulator, the higher the payout if all results go your way? Beating the points spread sounds tough though.

I have an idea, which would be separate to what you're suggesting. We could still think about your idea too. I'm not a big fan of betting on sports, even though if I did try it I would probably have success. But I was thinking, we could have a virtual betting competition next season. We would all start with $100,000 (or something like that), and simply the goal would be to, by season's end, have the highest virtual balance. Each week someone would find a list of the odds for each game, and we would bet on as many games individually as we like in order to try and win virtual money. We could set a weekly limit if we wanted to.

For example, if Washington are 6/1 to beat Dallas, and you bet $500 on it, you'd win $3,000 ($2,500 profit). If it didn't happen you lose the money. Or you could bet the favourites Dallas, for 1/5 odds, and win $600 ($100 profit).

The beauty of it would be that we could make virtual bets whenever, and how often we wanted to. If someone was busy, they could skip a week.

It would also make for an exciting final week. Lets say I had a balance of $250,000, Warrior had $230,000, and you had $140,000 thanks to a big loss the previous week. Even though in this scenario you are far behind, you could simply bet your entire $140,000, and if successful could leapfrog both of us. Heck, you could be trailing the leader by $800,000, and could bet on a game with odds of 10/1.

Sanzano

Warrior13

Let me know what you think of this idea, and whether you don't want it/want it, but with changes.

Also Warrior, what do you think of Dennis's suggestion?

« Last edited by Matt77 on May 17th 2020 »

I'd have to think about it. You know, because I did so terrible last year picking as a whole. :P

I'm quite happy doing what you propose Matt. Sounds like fun, I take it the points system would still be the same as previous years except this time there is virtual money attached to your score. So theoretically you could be losing the competition but have the most virtual money in the bank. It would be interestng to see the results at seasons end.

As for my way with real currency, yes, it's an accumulator. You have to get all three games right for the payout. The points spread makes it difficult. I found at the time (90's) backing the big scoring teams like San Francisco and Dallas to be the most successful way of doing it as the spread was rarely more than 13.5 points and those two teams would do that easily on most weeks.

If either of you are unsure I'm more than happy to continue like previous seasons.

Warrior - If anything, a virtual betting competition favours you the most, since you know the most about the NFL than any of us. You would be able to recognise good-value odds. Plus this isn't really about tipping; it's about picking results which are good value. There may be something like a maximum of 3 or 5 bets per week to avoid simply betting on the favourite for all 16 games.

And as for Dennis's suggestion, regardless of whether you would want to do a joint accumulator or your own, again it rewards good value picks.

Dennis - Basically what I mean is that we will still have our tipping competition, but this new competition would be separate. For example in Houston @ Kansas City, you could tip KC, but in the betting competition you may like Houston's odds and place virtual money on a 4/1 bet.

And for the accumulator, the reason I suggested the virtual bet competition is because I'm not a fan of betting real money. I've read a lot from people saying after stopping small betting, they felt a lot better about things. But if you like the idea, I'd be more than happy to give you tips if you want to bet small amounts of money. For example, we could each pick 1 result that could go toward the 3-game accumulator.

Everyone:
tl;dr - There could be three things:
1. Our normal tipping competition
2. A new virtual betting competition where we can bet as much or as little as we like
3. A weekly accumulator using a small amount of real money, and we could all contribute

Also Warrior, are you still in contact with Freez? I know last year he was too busy to do tipping with us. Do you know if this is still the case?

« Last edited by Matt77 on May 18th 2020 »

I'll think about it. lol

Definitely the first, maybe the second. I'm not really into real betting when it comes to Pros; very stingy odd makers. College is better for that. lol

If we decide to do the virtual betting, would you still be happy to use odds from websites though? If not, we could always create our own odds. For example each week someone different gets to create the odds, and goes through every possible result. Eg:

HOU @ KC
Houston 4/1
Kansas 1/5

SEA @ ATL
Seattle 1/2
Atlanta 2.5/1

CLE @ BAL
Cleveland 4/1
Baltimore 1/6

For example, if this was a hypothetical Week 1, I would consider putting money on Atlanta, because they're at home and will pay out x3.5 (1 + 2.5). Or I may think that Houston have a 0% chance of winning, so I may put $10,000 on a KC win and get $12,000 back.

« Last edited by Matt77 on May 18th 2020 »

Lol, I'm confused Matt. When I did it back in the 90's it was something like Detroit 7+ against Dallas. All I had to do was make sure Dallas won by more than 8 points if I backed them to get a win. Really simple. Looks like technology has left me behind again.

I wasn't planning on putting $10,000 down on a bet, more like $10

$10,000 was just an example I used for the virtual betting. C'mon, would I really ask you both to put $10k bets every week with real money?

That +7 you refer to still exists. But I think that's associated with betting against the spread. If you still want to do your accumulator and you prefer betting against the spread, go for it.

Michael Thomas is a locker room cancer.

Lol, I know Matt. Just pulling your leg.

What's Michael Thomas done now? I know he is a notorious trouble maker,just glad he doesn't play for the Redskins. Why does it always seem to be the wide recievers that are bad news for a team?

FoxNFL put up a poll to their users on Instagram. Which is tougher:
A - Make a catch while guarded by Stephon Gilmore
B - Break up a pass while guarding Michael Thomas

Now this appears to be an innocent poll. Both situations would be pretty hard. It would be a hard choice to make. Miami WR DeVante Parker decided to participate, and he voted A, likely because he has to play opposite Gilmore twice a year and knows how hard it is.

The following conversation took place, with Thomas starting it:

Thomas - "Go run some numbers up. Then you can talk I lapped you and you been in the league longer than me first rounder."

Parker - "got some hard feelings there brotha??? Let me get targeted 300 times a game."

Thomas - "in other words you weak they don't even put your name in the same sentence as me remember that!"

Thomas (Parker hadn't yet replied) - "you still not going to do nothing *laughing emoji* it took you 6yrs and 17 weeks to have a good game gtfoh blame your parents not no QB"

Parker - "quit crying bra *laughing emoji x2*"

Thomas - "you heard what I said."

Parker - "I didn't hear shiiii play boi"

Thomas - "you can't even get a seat at the table."

Thomas then went on his own Twitter page and posted several tweets, over the course of about 12 hours, about how good his 2019/20 stats were.

My best guess is that Thomas is annoyed that he was drafted in the 2nd round, whereas Parker was a 1st rounder. So he wanted Parker and the world to know just how good he is. Parker never referred directly to Thomas at all, yet Thomas felt the need to start bitching.

« Last edited by Matt77 on May 20th 2020 »

Sounds to me Michael Thomas feels a bit insecure. If you were an elite wide reciever and you knew you were one of the best in the game you wouldn't have reacted like that. Come to think of it you wouldn't have even left a comment, you'd feel you had nothing to prove. You'd just take it as a hypothetical question and a bit of fun which is how Parker took it.

Washington Redskins WR Antonio Gandy-Golde cleared after testing positive for COVID-19. Aparently he is one of the carriers of the virus. He showed absolutely no symptoms whatsoever, I wonder how many more people like that will be walking around society once the lock down ends.

« Last edited by Sanzano on May 21st 2020 »

Well haven't you heard? America; the country with over 1.1 million active cases, 20,000+ new cases daily, and 95,000 deaths, has began ending lockdown in a majority of states? With that many active cases, there's got to be at least thousands of people like that who don't show any symptoms.

On the subject of the coronavirus, it's almost certain that NFL games will have reduced crowds in the best-case scenario. There's even a chance that some games will be played behind closed doors. Wouldn't it be appropriate that in the year that Cincinnati finally have a franchise player who brings hope and optimism, they may not even be able to watch him live at the stadium.

Now more on topic:

NFL owners will vote on a concept that replaces onside kicks with a 4th & 15 at your own 25-yard line, and is only able to be used twice in a game. And it sounds like it may get accepted. When the XFL got cancelled I thought its gimmicks were dead and buried, but nope.

And Dak has reportedly rejected a 5-year, $175M contract ($35M per year). He apparently wants a 4-year deal but Dallas want him to sign a 5-year deal. And he will only sign the 5-year deal if he gets $45M in the 5th year.

How will they afford to have Amari Cooper and Dak Prescott on 5-year deals worth a combined $285 million?!?!?!

Dak Prescott is a greedy bugger, I remember watching the NFL in the early 80's and it was well documented that nearly half of all players on the team had a second job during the offseason. An average NFL player back in those days would earn between 20-30 thousand dollars a season. How things have changed, and back in those day the quarterbacks were hit hard, not like today. Those old timers must be really bitter when they see the amount of money Prescott is declining.

Lol I correctly predicted that you would call Dak "a greedy bugger"

Apparently it wasn't true after all, however it was basically confirmed that Dak wants a 4-year deal but with more money each year. I'm still believing the story though, even if Dak's management team said it's not true. It matches with everything we've been hearing about this Dak saga.

Also I was wrong when I told you that the franchise tag means the contract is locked in. If they want to, Dallas can give Dak a proper contract before July 31.

Continuing to break the draft simulator:
27. Devonta Smith WR Alabama
52. Jonathan Cooper EDGE Ohio State
59. Chris Olave WR Ohio State
62. Richard LeCounte S Georgia
75. Cade Mays OT Tennessee
84. Josh Myers OC Ohio State
93. Chaz Surratt LB North Carolina
99. Joe Tryon EDGE Washington
131. Tuf Borland LB Ohio State
184. Paddy Fisher LB Northwestern
185. Kellen Mond QB Texas A&M
195. Jah-Maine Martin RB North Carolina A&T
205. LaRon Stokes DT Oklahoma
2022 DET 1st
2022 ATL 1st
2022 DAL 1st
2022 CLE 1st
2022 KC 1st

Too many trades to list. But I walk away with all the Phins 2022 Picks + 5 More 1st Rounders.

Warrior, the draft is exactly 11 months away ;_;

It's better than talking about Dak every day.